Premier League Matchday 9, Sunday, 27.10.2024 at 17:30
Where it says top game, there is a top game inside, when Arsenal and Liverpool face each other on Sunday evening. There’s no doubt about it.
Because the third-placed team meets the first-placed team in the table. Both have played for the title in recent years and are among the favorites this time too.
So it’s all the better that the teams are now facing each other so early in the season. But don’t be fooled: It’s by no means a preliminary decision in the title race.
The visitors can definitely solidify their ambitions with a win, however. They are currently in fantastic form anyway.
The Londoners, on the other hand, must be careful after their latest defeat that the gap to the front does not become too big already. At least for the psyche.
Accordingly, in my Arsenal Liverpool betting tip, I expect the Gunners in particular to take things slowly and not want to lose at all costs.
The betting tip?
Of course, it’s hard to pick a clear favorite when two teams that have been among the best in the league for years are facing each other.
However, betting providers such as Intertops see the home side as slightly better in the Arsenal Liverpool betting tip due to their home advantage. Certainly also because they have won 11 of their 13 league home games this year (1U, 1N).
Analysis: Arsenal vs Liverpool
But the Reds also have nothing to hide due to their away record. They have only lost two of their last 19 league games away from home.
They could now win five away games in a row for the first time since September 2021. However, one of their two defeats came at Emirates Stadium in February.
As we all know, this is also the month in which the Gunners are winning with regularity. Especially in front of a home crowd.
Let that melt in your mouth: They’ve only lost one of their past 41 PL home games in the month of October (33S, 7U). They’ve won all of their last seven.
Rating analysis
What I’m saying is that the Reds first have to prove they can hold their own in north London and simply play their boots off.
And although they have lost their last two visits to the Emirates, they have scored in each of their last 17 meetings with the Gunners.
The predictions in the Arsenal Liverpool betting tip for a game with goals on both sides are correspondingly low. Bookmakers such as Happybet are predicting odds of around 1.60.
In any case, the home side have always looked good against top teams recently. They have not lost any of their last five encounters with clubs above them in the table (3S, 2U).
So will they extend their streak and remain unbeaten again? The bookies at Betway are very optimistic, predicting double odds of around 1.40.
Arsenal and discipline
The fact that the Gunners are already four points off the top of the table after eight matchdays is not ideal. But it’s not a disaster either.
Instead, coach Mikel Arteta should be asking himself how he is managing to stabilize his defence. His men have fallen behind in three of their last four matches.
By comparison, that is as often as in the previous 26 games combined. One reason could be a lack of discipline, as was the case at the weekend.
William Saliba’s dismissal was the third of the season and the 18th under Arteta. No team has been more frequently outnumbered than Arsenal (Wolves and Everton both 13).
Liverpool’s defense is the key
If the Reds win this game, it would be their second-best start ever after nine matchdays.
The only time they achieved more was, you guessed it, in the 2019/20 championship season, when they started with eight wins and a draw. One reason for their record so far is their defense.
With just three goals conceded, they have the best defense in the Premier League. However, this is not just down to luck.
Statistically speaking, they have also conceded the fewest expected goals (xG), namely 6.2. In this respect, it will be difficult for Arsenal to put Liverpool in behind at all.
When Arsenal and Liverpool face each other, it often means one thing above all: goals. Only the Reds and Tottenham (191) have scored more goals since the Premier League was introduced (190).
At least three goals have been scored in nine of the last eleven matches alone. At the Emirates, there have even been more than 3.5 goals in each of the most recent matches.
One of the reasons why there were so many goals in pre-season was Gabriel Martinelli.
The Brazilian has not scored as many goals against any other team in all competitions as he did against the Reds (7). His three goals in the league gave the Gunners the lead on each occasion.
My tip:
But I’m still skeptical. With Saliba missing, the home side are missing an important support on the counter-attack. And Arteta is a pragmatist.
Knowing full well that he won’t be at his best, he won’t do a damn thing to run into an open knife against the Reds. I expect a tight game.
My Arsenal Liverpool tip is therefore: There will be less than 2.5 goals
