Premier League, Sunday, 16/03/2025 at 2:30 pm
Will Arsenal lose second place they thought they had sewn up? The Gunners have lost their league form and need to win again as soon as possible. The big city derby against Chelsea is on the program on Sunday.
A favorite opponent for red, and the “guests” are not doing well away from home. Accordingly, in my current Arsenal Chelsea tip, I will tell you why I am on course for “double chance 1X” here and am also considering an “under 3.5 goals”.
Three games without a win – again! For the second time this season, Arsenal FC are going through an unflattering phase. And I’ll tell you right at the start of my analysis: last fall, there was a period of four games without a win.
The key point of the story: the fourth game without a win during this period was against Chelsea, of all teams. In principle, however, the Blues are still one of Arsenal’s favorite opponents.
One of the last 11 games has been lost, and I also see six wins from the last eight home games. But let’s move on to the current analysis, because unfortunately the Gunners are not in a really good shape.
After the 0-1 defeat to West Ham, they played 0-0 against Nottingham, followed by an equally unsuccessful 1-1 draw against Manchester United. So two goals from their last three games is not great.
Strangely enough, the historic 7-1 win against Eindhoven in the last 16 first leg of the Champions League came in between. The absence of Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka seems to be more of an issue in the Premier League.
The Gunners made two of the aforementioned mistakes away from home. The fact that they are now allowed to play in their stadium again would definitely be an advantage, because the 0-1 defeat to West Ham was their first loss of the season.
Arsenal are still in a good position as runners-up in the home table, and the eleven goals conceded in particular read well. Three of them were conceded in the first half, so the defense is particularly sound at the start of the games.
Is a clean sheet in the first half the only alternative in the derby? You can get a tight 1.50 at Betano if you bet that Chelsea will not score on Sunday.
Since I can see the Gunners winning 1-0 six times, it might be worth taking a look at Bet365. If you bet on this result at half-time, we would get odds of 3.75.
Do the betting providers factor Arsenal’s current winless streak into their odds? Probably not, because the home side are favored with an average of 1.80 to 4.40.
Chelsea were last able to enjoy two consecutive victories for the first time this year, with a 4-0 win over Southampton followed by a 1-0 win over Leicester. So four home wins in a row – but there is a trip (albeit a very short one) at the weekend.
Away from home, the Blues started this season strong, but now things look quite different. They collected two points from their last six games, and even at Ipswich and Everton they failed to get a win.
1:2 against Aston Villa, 0:3 against Brighton, 1:3 against ManCity, 1:1 against Crystal Palace, 0:2 at Ipswich and 0:0 against Everton? The offensive yield during this period is three goals.
Of course, I also have to tell you that Chelsea have not been able to celebrate three wins in a row since November/December. Interesting for defensive lovers: for the first time since September and for only the second time ever, the team kept two clean sheets in a row.
Has winning three in a row ever worked in 2024/25? No, it hasn’t, so conceding goals at the weekend seems to be the only option.
Arsenal or Chelsea, who will take control of the city on Sunday? The home side will have to watch their backs, because they can’t really afford a fourth game without a win. Defeats against Chelsea have been quite rare for years.
I have noticed that the Blues only perform well at home, while away from home, nothing works. Since even teams in the relegation zone are missing out on a win, I am betting on the “double chance 1X”. Their offense away from home also leaves something to be desired.
At the same time, the red Londoners have only scored twice in their last three games, missing out on Havertz and Saka. So, I have decided on the following tip:
Arsenal scores a maximum of three goals!
