Serie A, Sunday, 16/03/2025 at 4:00 PM
It’s actually a classic tragedy how the Romans were knocked out of the Europa League last Thursday. Now, both the coaching team and the best betting providers are forced to focus only on the domestic league.
Speaking of which, according to my AS Roma Cagliari betting tip, the next appearance will end in a victory. Even though Mats Hummels’ recent sending off will certainly have upset the “Giallorossi” fans, Roma is still simply too strong an opponent for them.
Mats Hummels did Roma a disservice with his early red card on Thursday! Athletic Bilbao thanks you for the long period of being a man up and for making it to the Europa League quarterfinals.
A bitter setback for the “Giallorossi”, who had been in outstanding form until then. But was it just a blip or a real blow to their confidence?
Because until this game, Roma had been really outstanding. What Claudio Ranieri has achieved with this completely revamped team up until last Thursday is almost beyond words.
Six consecutive wins in all competitions, including against respectable teams such as Empoli and Como, have catapulted the Giallorossi back into the fight for a European place.
Incidentally, this impressive series began with a 1-0 win over Parma on February 16. It almost goes without saying that they will now show a reaction after the defeat against Bilbao.
Cagliari, on the other hand, are on a downward spiral. The Sardinians have not won in four games (2 draws, 2 defeats) and seem increasingly insecure.
They have a particularly hard time away from home, which must be a real problem against a team like Roma. Looking at the current performances of the guests, they don’t look like a team that will take the capital by storm.
In addition, I will give you some truly bloodcurdling numbers that must make the average Sardinian football fan feel cold all over.
Of course, the Sardinians should never be underestimated, but overall, there is a lot to be said for a home win for the Giallorossi. Especially if they finish the game with eleven men this time, their individual advantage should be clearly apparent.
In addition, Roma have an impressive record against Cagliari – they have not lost in 18 of the last 19 Serie A duels (13 wins, 5 draws).
Such numbers are not just statistics, but a clear indication that a veritable football law is emerging here.
The first leg in the summer of 2024 ended goalless, but there should be no further draw. At that time, Roma lacked an experienced and accomplished leader like Claudio Ranieri on the sidelines.
If the home side maintain the necessary focus, their individual class should prevail. Especially as the game is being played at a venue that could in itself set the scene for a “home win”.
Another factor that should not be underestimated is the home advantage. Roma are traditionally a force at the Stadio Olimpico, and this is also evident in their head-to-head duels with Cagliari.
The Giallorossi have not lost any of their last nine home games against the Sardinians and have bagged the full three points in most of them (7 wins, 2 draws).
And then there is the already roughly sketched form curve of Roma, which is simply outstanding. No team in the top five European leagues has scored more points than the capital city team in 2025 – a whopping 26 points (8 wins, 2 draws).
A statistic that underlines just how good the hosts are at the moment. Consequently, you could be content with a simple home win bet, which is currently available at decent AS Roma Cagliari odds of around 1.57.
However, it is not to be expected that the Sardinians will simply let themselves be overrun.
In the last 10 Serie A matchdays, Cagliari never conceded more than a maximum of two goals!
In games against outstanding clubs such as Atalanta (0-0), Juventus (0-1) and Milan (1-1), it was even less!
Consequently, I am upgrading my AS Roma Cagliari betting tip by adding the additional condition “under 3.5 goals” to the hosts’ victory.
Conclusion: Cagliari are traveling to Rome in poor shape, while the Giallorossi are still marching towards the top of the league despite their Europa League elimination.
So everything points to a home win – especially if Roma manage to finish the game with 11 men this time. But don’t expect the guests to let themselves be shot down easily.
My AS Roma Cagliari betting tip is accordingly: hosts win & under 3.5 goals.
