Europa League, Thursday, 20/02/2025 at 6:45 pm
Can the Romans take advantage of the positive upswing of recent weeks and secure a place in the Europa League knockout stage in their own stadium?
The “Giallorossi” are known to be a force at home, but Porto has proven in the past that they can be dangerous away from home. Will Rome’s defense be stable again, or will the Portuguese pull off a minor upset?
Of course, I will ask ChatGPT again this week for a Roma Porto tip on the possible final result of this encounter. Maybe I’ll get another bull’s eye again!
Meanwhile, a personnel matter in the Italian capital is causing a stir: Mats Hummels is currently left out on the bench!
But as long as the trio in defense, in whom Ranieri places his trust, continue to defend so solidly, the tifosi of the “Giallorossi” should not care.
Will the defense of the capital city remain stable again, or can Porto crack the defense?
The betting providers see AS Roma as favorites in their home game against FC Porto. With odds of 1.78 on average, the “Giallorossi” are expected to win comfortably, while the Portuguese are listed as clear outsiders at 4.70.
A draw, on the other hand, is priced at 3.65 – an option that does not seem completely outlandish and would inevitably result in extra time.
Roma are likely to dictate play in their own stadium, but FCP are known for their composed performances in international duels. So it might not be as one-sided as the AS Roma Porto odds suggest.
AI prediction AS Roma vs Porto: That’s what ChatGPT predicts
The AS Roma Porto AI prediction is ready! And of course, I asked the intelligent software for an explicit result first, hoping to be able to clean up at the betting shop again like I did last week.
For the high risk, ChatGPT this time suggests “a 2-1 win for Roma”. I like that very much! Just as with the 1-1 draw the previous week, I give it a thumbs up at this point.
For a medium risk, “both teams to score” is recommended. For me, it’s a classic 50-50 proposition – there’s just not much “value” behind this tip.
After all, the “AS Roma will score the last goal” tip is available for the low risk. An interesting suggestion that I also share. I also think that the “Giallorossi” will have the last word.
Analysis: AS Roma vs Porto
Roma held on for a 1-1 draw against Porto in the first leg despite playing almost 30 minutes with ten men. This result is reminiscent of their performance at the same stage last year, when they only advanced to the last 16 on penalties.
They secured a 1-0 win over Parma at the weekend, extending their unbeaten streak in Serie A to nine consecutive league matches (6 wins, 3 draws).
However, with European places still a long way off, coach Claudio Ranieri could be setting his sights on winning the 2024/25 Europa League.
At home, meanwhile, the Romans can finally look back on a strong record again, with seven wins from their last eight competitive games at the Stadio Olimpico (1 draw).
Claudio Ranieri has thus completely cleaned up the mess left behind by his two predecessors.
Porto, on the other hand, who recently celebrated a 1-0 win at Farense, have an almost worryingly positive record against Italian teams from their last ten European club games together (2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats).
Odds Analysis
“Roma qualifies in extra time at 9.50” is an excellent AS Roma Porto betting tip for risk-taking betting fans. Roma could actually only score 2-1 after 90 minutes and thus gain access to the last sixteen.
“Artem Dovbyk scores at 2.62” also sounds promising. The Ukrainian has shown a noticeable improvement in form under Ranieri and is definitely a dangerous player in front of goal.
AS Roma vs. Porto odds: “Olimpico” factor
At home, Roma are simply a force to be reckoned with – so it’s no wonder that the AS Roma vs. Porto betting odds are as they are.
The Giallorossi have won 13 of their last 16 home games in the UEFA Europa League, keeping a clean sheet in each of their last three.
Under Claudio Ranieri, Roma have won five of their last six home games in this competition – although their only defeat came in a knockout tie, against Panathinaikos in February 2010.
Roma play the better football!
Roma had more of the game than the Portuguese last week, with an xG value of 1.29. And if everything goes “normally”, their more sophisticated style of play will prevail in the end.
After all, the Giallorossi have completed the most open sequences of play with at least ten passes (148) of any team in this Europa League season. However, their possession rate against Porto in the first leg was just 42.6% – their lowest of the current campaign.
Meanwhile, things are going badly for Porto – really badly. And a look at the Portuguese club’s previous record in comparable situations does not bode well.
Porto have only survived three of nine knockout duels in European competitions when the first leg at home ended in a draw.
Nevertheless, the last time they managed to do so was against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League round of 16 in 2013/14.
Incidentally, last week I already had the feeling that ChatGPT could be right with its 1-1 result bet – and with the 2-1 it suggests for the second leg, too.
After all, Roma last hosted Porto in a European Cup game in February 2019 – and won 2-1 thanks to a brace from Nicolò Zaniolo. Just numbers, or isn’t that an interesting parallel?
My tip
Roma will probably prevail, but Porto will give them a run for their money. A hard-fought game is to be expected, with possible final scores of 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1.
The game could even go into extra time if FCP puts up stiff resistance against the hosts. It should be a thrilling encounter that will surely remain open until the very end.
My AS Roma Porto betting tip: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals.
