Aston Villa – Newcastle Tip FA Cup, 4th round on Saturday, 14.02.2026 at 18:30
The English clubs have a busy schedule! After the PL matchday during the week, the fourth round of the FA Cup is on the agenda. In my Aston Villa Newcastle tip, I’ll show you why I expect the hosts to rise to an odds of about 1.60 at Bet-at-Home.
Both opponents have had better phases, but there is more to be said for a success for the Villans, who also won the last duel against the Magpies 2-0 almost three weeks ago.
As is so often the case, it will depend on the ambitions with which the clubs go into the competition. Aston Villa are in the middle of the Premier League battle for the Champions League places (currently third) and are likely to prioritise the championship, but of course that doesn’t stop them from being successful in the cup as well.
At Newcastle it looks a little different. Coach Eddie Howe’s team is currently only in the middle of the table and is eight points behind the international starting places. Here, the FA Cup should be a more worthwhile goal.
At our bookmakers you will not only find regular offers of sports betting without deposit, but also the matching Aston Villa odds. According to them, the hosts are considered favorites.
The corresponding home win tip brings you double the stake, while the bet on a draw brings to light odds of around 3.60. If the Magpies prevail, the betting odds are 3.00 on average.
Aston Villa – Newcastle AI Predictions:
Our AI tool, like me, concludes that the far greater probability is an Aston Villa victory. Although the Magpies were able to end their dry spell with a 2-0 win against Tottenham after five winless competitive games, Howe’s team is an outsider in Birmingham.
According to AI analysis, Newcastle’s probability of victory is just about 27 percent. A home win for the Villans, on the other hand, has a probability of almost 51 percent.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Aston Villa |
Draw |
Win Newcastle |
| 50.7% |
22.1% |
27.2% |
According to the xG values, 2.80 goals can be expected in this game, which speaks for an “Over 2.5 goals in the game” bet. At Betano, you get quite appealing odds of 1.65 for this.
A “both teams to score” at 1.55 odds is also not unlikely due to the xG values. Aston Villa achieves an xG of approx. 1.70, Newcastle an xG value of 1.10.
My Aston Villa Newcastle tip is in similar realms in terms of odds. I expect that the Villans will make it to the promotion and secure odds of 1.63 at Bet-at-Home.
What you need to know about Aston Villa – Newcastle betting
- Aston Villa have not lost their last three meetings with Newcastle (W2 D1) and most recently won 2-0 away at St. James Park just under 2 weeks ago.
- The Villans have lost just one of their last seven home games against Newcastle (W5 D1).
- Newcastle defeated Tottenham 2-0 on Tuesday after four PL defeats in a row.
- In the last four competitive games, Newcastle have conceded eleven goals (2.75 per game).
