FA Cup, 4th round, Saturday, 08/02/2025 at 18:35
No Premier League this weekend? Never mind, because the 4th round of the FA Cup is coming up! While in some games there are still lower-league outsiders involved, I now have a game to analyze that is quite something.
In my Aston Villa Tottenham tip, two clubs from the top division meet, who know: we could work on our form!
In my analysis, I will now tell you why I have decided on a maximum of 3.5 goals here.
Did you do better in the Champions League group stage than after 24 rounds in the Premier League? You can do it! Aston Villa are really puzzling me this season.
At times, the Villans act like a true international top club; their 5-0 win over Bayern Munich was not without reason. But a little later, they make mistakes in the league, collecting results that don’t really go together.
Two of the last seven league games have been won, both the 2-1 against Leicester and the 1-0 against Everton were very close. 1-1 against West Ham and even 0-2 against Wolverhampton? Absolutely unacceptable!
Admittedly, it’s a lot to do with WHERE we send Aston Villa on the pitch. Since October, the team has won just one away game, while at home I count a single defeat.
This was in August in the 2-0 defeat to Arsenal, which the club can really be forgiven for. And yet, the most recent home wins were incredibly difficult, even against bottom-placed Southampton there was only a 1-0 win.
Perhaps another competition will help them to break the deadlock. Since the Villans were already out of the EFL Cup, they were able to concentrate fully on regeneration during the week.
In the FA Cup, they faced West Ham in the third round and won 2-1. Villa only turned up after falling behind and progressed somewhat luckily. I would like to mention here that in the league, they were three times behind at home, but still managed to get seven points.
Striker Ollie Watkins, who is very important for Aston Villa, is currently suffering from a muscle injury. The game against Tottenham could come a little too early for him, when he would love to help avenge the recent 4-1 defeat to Spurs.
Since 21 direct duels, it is interesting to note that there is always a winner between these two clubs. Since 2008, the Villans have only managed to win at home once – and in May 2023, the 2-1 win was almost over.
Not the best historical conditions for Aston Villa, who are still seen as favorites with odds of 1.82 to 3.85. As far as just getting through is concerned, I see values of 1.45 on the left and 2.70 on the right.
Since 2015, the Villans have not reached the fifth round of the FA Cup, when they went all the way to the final. No question about it, this is by no means a favorite competition. Is it any different for Tottenham?
The last time the North Londoners appeared in the semi-finals was in 2018. Although they were knocked out in the current 4th round exactly a year ago, a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City is really no disgrace.
Tottenham have, of course, had immensely difficult weeks and months, and are currently only in 14th place in the league. Eight wins from 24 rounds, a win rate of 33 percent is absolutely unacceptable.
At least: after one point from seven games, they won 2-0 against Brentford, what a relief. With the exception of the 3-6 defeat against Liverpool, the defeats had all been very close, so bad luck was definitely a factor.
At home, the team defends much better, conceding 14 goals (23 at home). But what could be crucial is that Tottenham were still in the EFL Cup last Thursday.
They knocked out two big teams, Manchester City and Manchester United, and then won the first leg of the semi-final against Liverpool 1-0. How did the second leg end for the capital city club?
“Befitting”: 0:4! The Spurs didn’t even get a single shot on target, and the defeat could have been even higher in the end.
The duel between Aston Villa and Tottenham MUST actually have a winner! The history is clear, it was not easy for me to determine a favorite here. In the league, the hosts are stronger, but only because of the home advantage.
Last Thursday’s appearance against Liverpool in the EFL Cup could play a decisive role for Spurs. Besides, I could see that the Villans don’t really like the FA Cup.
So I decided not to favor anyone, but to bet on the fact that both sides are simply not in the best of moods. And so my tip is:
We’ll see a maximum of 3.5 goals!
