FA Cup, 5th round, Friday, 15.01.2025 at 20:45
At the time when the Bundesliga continues in Germany, the English FA Cup will take place on Friday, with Aston Villa against West Ham, a real Premier League clash for you.
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The hosts, also known as the Villans, are currently fighting to qualify for another European cup competition, but first have their sights firmly set on this weekend’s FA Cup clash against WHU.
Aston Villa, currently eighth in the table, are just four points off the Champions League places and can look back on a solid season so far.
They recently won their first competitive game of the new year 2-1 at home against Leicester and will naturally be hoping to carry this positive momentum forward.
Under Unai Emery, the team are undoubtedly strong at home, having gone ten games unbeaten in a row at Villa Park.
But beware: Aston Villa have been knocked out in the third round of the FA Cup in seven of the last eight years – a negative trend that cannot be dismissed, but which they will now be determined to put an end to.
On the other side, West Ham travel to the Midlands on Friday. The visitors have had slightly more success in cup competitions in recent years, but they too have not made it past the fifth round since 2016.
For the Londoners, this game should in any case be a welcome change from the gray league routine, where they have recently suffered two crushing defeats in a row.
The Hammers’ defense is a major problem: in the last eight games, they have only managed to keep one clean sheet – and nine goals conceded in the last two games against Liverpool and ManCity also speak volumes.
According to the relevant analysts, the game could be a high-scoring one, as both defensive lines do indeed have weaknesses. Aston Villa, for example, have only conceded once in their last 13 league games.
Offensively, however, both teams are missing key players: Villans top scorer Jhon Duran is serving a suspension, while West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen is out with a foot injury. Both players are essential for their teams.
Nevertheless, there are players who can turn things around. Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers, who have 14 league goals between them, could be crucial for Villa.
For the Hammers, on the other hand, the focus will be on Lucas Paquetá and Mohammed Kudus, even if the duo have only scored a meagre three goals this season…
The head-to-head comparison paints a mixed picture: West Ham have won five of their last ten Premier League encounters, while Villa have only managed two victories. Three games ended in draws.
However, Aston Villa have never come away empty-handed in their last four meetings, including the 2-1 win in the first leg of the current season, when Amadou Onana and Duran, who was suspended on Friday, scored for the Villans.
Incidentally, it will be the first FA Cup clash between these two teams since 1980 – an eagerly anticipated encounter.
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Conclusion: Of course, it’s not exactly as if the Hammers are covering themselves in glory at the moment. But 9 goals conceded against ManCity and a Liverpool side playing like they’ve been unleashed can surely catch almost any strong team at the moment.
Previously, however, United managed to never concede more than one goal per game against three comparatively weaker Premier League teams. In my opinion, the Hammers should be reasonably stable against Aston Villa on Friday.
However, I don’t trust them to win, just like AVFC – at least at the current Aston Villa West Ham United odds, I don’t want to place a less profitable home win bet here …
However, what definitely appeals to me the most in terms of the risk/reward ratio here is the odds on a low-scoring draw after 90 minutes.
My tip: Draw and under 2.5 goals
