Atalanta Bergamo – Athletic Bilbao Tip Champions League, Matchday 7 on Wednesday, 21/01/2026 at 21:00 CET
Why not directly Palladino? If they had installed his successor at the beginning of the season instead of Juric, I would certainly have been spared a lot of suffering as an Atalanta fan.
My Atalanta Bergamo Athletic Bilbao tip for Wednesday evening is therefore based on the positive away trend under Palladino and at the same time takes into account the best odds offers that bookmakers with PayPal provide you with for this encounter.
Since the last change of coach, “La Dea” has lost only 2 of their 13 competitive games – and against the Basques, who are usually beside themselves away from home anyway, the Atalanta odds of around 1.90 currently traded on the markets are already high enough for me.
The fact that the Basques are currently having enormous problems away from home may be a current phenomenon. However, her general difficulty in making convincing appearances in Italy is historically documented.
Athletic Club have won just one of their 11 away games against Italian teams in all competitions (D4 L6) and have gone six games without a win since a 2-1 win at Sampdoria in the 1997/98 UEFA Cup.
Atalanta Bergamo – Athletic Bilbao Prediction & Betting Tips
I keep the headline general, but strictly speaking, an Atalanta Bergamo Athletic Bilbao tip that sees the hosts win without conceding a goal would possibly be the better choice.
Victory Atalanta to nil not only promises higher odds with an average of 3.25, but also offers strong prospects of success.
“La Dea” has already kept a clean sheet on three of the six Champions League matchdays so far, and only PSG and Chelsea have been able to generate an xG value of 1.0 or higher against them.
That’s why the betting option HT/FT Atalanta/Atalanta at odds around 2.95 is also very popular with me: If the Italians manage to make it 1-0 before half-time, it will most likely stay that way.
What you need to consider when betting on Atalanta Bergamo vs. Athletic Bilbao
- Atalanta benefited from the change of coach to Raffaele Palladino and have lost only 2 of 13 competitive games since then.
- Athletic Bilbao have failed to score in their last three Champions League games and are weakening offensively.
- Statistically, both clubs fell far short of their expected goal yield in the current league phase.
- Charles De Ketelaere created the second most scoring chances after Kylian Mbappe under high pressure from the opponent.
Atalanta Bergamo – Athletic Bilbao: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our data model has created an Atalanta Bergamo Athletic Bilbao AI prediction, which I think is broadly consistent.
However, this is a bit more aggressive than my own assessment – but “aggressive” does not automatically mean unreasonable here. The odds are proportional to the actual probability of occurrence.
For example, a 1-0 result bet at half-time at odds of around 3.75 requires some courage, but is absolutely understandable. After all, Bilbao have conceded only one goal in the first half so far in the 2025/26 season.
Charles de Ketelaere was chosen by the AI as a candidate for the first – and possibly only – goal of the game.
No other player on the pitch looks as efficient: After all, only Kylian Mbappé (17) has created more chances after opposing pressing than the Belgian this Champions League season.
Therefore, 1st Goal: Charles de Ketelaere at odds around 8.00 is definitely worth a try. Especially since he seems to be the linchpin of coach Palladino’s game anyway.
The best odds for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Athletic Bilbao
The Atalanta Bergamo Athletic Bilbao odds make it clear who is considered the favourite on paper according to the bookmakers.
Because a home win by Atalanta is quoted at 1.92. The markets are therefore betting on the home strength of the Italians, their stable defence and their experience in European competitions.
The draw, on the other hand, is 3.55. The bookies are calculating a game in which Bilbao can keep the game open at times and expect a fight that is likely to be decided by tactical subtleties.
An away win for Bilbao is rated 4.00. The bookmakers see the Spaniards as outsiders, but give them the chance for selective surprises – especially with skilful defensive work or efficient transition moments.
The Atalanta Bergamo Athletic Bilbao odds thus provide a picture in which the host is ahead, but the Basques have enough quality to shape the game, at least temporarily. So there is definitely potential for tension.
Atalanta Bergamo vs Athletic Bilbao Match Analysis:
Be prepared for a tough, gruelling game that will require a lot of lateral pushing and patience. Athletic Bilbao will once again try to stabilise their defence and close spaces, while chances going forward will be few and far between.
Bilbao has hardly scored any goals this Champions League season anyway – only Slavia Prague (2) was more harmless. So the Italians don’t have to fear much pressure.
However, Atalanta will have to be very patient in possession of the ball, wait for mistakes by the defensively strong Basques and consistently convert every opportunity.
Their own defensive work remains Bilbao’s strength, as the 0-0 draw against PSG recently showed.
At the same time, the guests have a tough schedule with Arsenal, Dortmund, Newcastle and PSG behind them, which has greatly reduced their chances of reaching the knockout rounds.
The bottom line is that it will be a match that will be decided by patience, clever movements between the lines and efficient use of set-pieces and transition moments – Atalanta will have a lot of possession, but will have to wait for their chances …
Atalanta Bergamo Form Check
Atalanta comes into this game with a lot of self-confidence. La Dea have already secured their place in the play-offs – four wins from six Champions League games, including three in a row, speak volumes.
If they win again now, it would even be the first series of four wins in a row in the Champions League since the 2019/20 season. This would not only further boost the mood in the team, but also significantly increase the chances of a place in the top eight.
In Serie A, on the other hand, things haven’t gone quite perfectly recently: a 1-1 draw in Pisa currently keeps them just outside the European Cup ranks.
Nevertheless, a look at the last twelve competitive games shows that Atalanta is enormously consistent – nine wins speak for a team that seems to have learned again how to win close games.
They are particularly strong at home at the moment: six wins from the last seven home games, four of them without conceding a goal, suggest that the Basques are likely to work up a sweat here.
Athletic Bilbao Form Check
Athletic are on the other side of the table and have a lot of pressure. With just one win from six UCL games, the Basques are two points off the last play-off spot.
Theoretically, everything is still possible, but in practice it will be tight, because they have to score in every game to reach the knockout phase.
The form currently gives little reason for hope: they have not scored a goal in their last three Champions League games and seem to be inhibited offensively.
Things haven’t gone smoothly against Spanish opponents recently either – four defeats from seven games, including weak performances against teams from the lower divisions in the Copa del Rey.
In general, they are currently having a particularly difficult time traveling: only four wins and eight defeats show that the team cannot reliably call up its performance on foreign grounds.
So it will be a really hard piece of work for Athletic: they have to improve offensively, remain defensively stable and hope that Atalanta does not perform in top form – otherwise there is a risk of an early exit from the Champions League.
