Atalanta Bergamo – Leverkusen betting tip
Both clubs have not only reached the final of the Europa League, but have also made it to the last two in their respective national cup competitions.
But while the final of the DFB Cup is still to come for the Werkself, the Bergamo side have already squandered their first chance to finally win a title under Gian Piero Gasperini.
In my Atalanta Bergamo Leverkusen prediction, you can now get an assessment of the possible course this eagerly awaited final could take on TV tonight. Will B04 set the stage for a historic treble?
The European Cup evening that awaits us also promises to be historic for another reason.
This will be the eighth major European final between a German and an Italian team and the first since the 2010 UEFA Champions League final, when Inter Milan defeated Bayern Munich 2-0.
In the UEFA Cup and Europa League, it is the first transalpine final since 1997, when FC Schalke 04 won the title on penalties against Inter Milan.
However, it is not the first showdown between these two clubs and in my Atalanta Bergamo Leverkusen betting tip you can find out why the Rhinelanders could run into problems “again”…
The bookmakers’ forecast
The German bookmakers’ respect for the Werkself is unbroken. According to them, they are also the favorites in their last Europa League match – and according to the Atalanta Bergamo Leverkusen odds, quite clearly.
The B04 win odds are just 1.82, while the Italians’ odds are as high as 4.33 in places. Note, however, that the match will be kicked off in Ireland and thus on completely foreign territory for both teams
Analysis: Atalanta Bergamo vs Leverkusen
On paper, I can understand why the Rhinelanders are favored in the betting markets.
After all, Bayer Leverkusen have not lost any of their 12 UEFA Europa League games this season (9 wins, 3 draws) and will be hoping to become only the fourth team to win the trophy without defeat.
Previously, Chelsea did so in the 2018-19 season, Villarreal in 2020-21 and Eintracht Frankfurt in 2021-22. Interestingly, Villarreal and Frankfurt both won the title in a thrilling penalty shootout in the final. So far, so good
However, as someone who has been following Atalanta Bergamo for years, I can assure you that this team will play a soccer that is extremely poisonous in 2023/24 and could cause enormous problems for the Werkself in particular due to their style of play.
They play a high pressing game and have first-class physicality. Don’t forget that they won 3-0 against Liverpool at Anfield Road and certainly shocked more than just Jürgen Klopp that night.
Ball-loving opponents are the specialty of the Bergamasques, whose counter-attacking soccer can sometimes be even more effective than a perceived 75% possession. I’m expecting anything, but I’m not expecting this to be a walk in the park for Leverkusen
Quota analysis
All bets speculating on a low-scoring first half are just as welcome this Wednesday as the lucrative Betano bonus.
The special bet from Bet365, according to which the second half of the match will be the one with the most goals, is particularly popular with me. The odds for this are currently around 1.90.
For providers with Paypal, we can even get very specific: Nil at half-time and over 1.5 goals after the break promises a win multiplier of 5.8x in this exact order.
Atalanta can defend masterfully!
Atalanta have conceded an average of just 2.8 shots on goal per game this Europa League season – the lowest of any team in the competition.
In contrast, their opponents in the final, Bayer Leverkusen, averaged 7.2 shots on goal per game in the 2023-24 season.
But it is precisely these game-destroying tactics by the Bergamo side that could ensure that the score is still 0-0 at the break.
However, as the game clock progresses – and especially in the final minutes – the Italians’ legs may get heavier. And we are used to strong final phases from the Rhinelanders.
But I’m sticking to my guns: a 0:0 at the break is more likely than the bookies are currently suggesting!
The match could pick up after the break!
The reason why I think it could still be 0-0 at the break, but not necessarily beyond that, is partly down to the Rhinelanders’ ability to pile on the pressure.
6 of Bayer Leverkusen’s 31 Europa League goals this season have been scored in the 90th minute – the highest number of last-minute goals ever scored by a team in a single major European first division season.
The Werkself therefore seem to have a real knack for dramatic final moments, which they have already proven on several occasions this season (Qarabag sends its regards)!
Florian Wirtz was still struggling recently, but was slowly built up for the Europa Feague final and should be in Leverkusen’s starting eleven tonight.
And even if I think that goals will be scored in the second half, that doesn’t mean that the Bundesliga team will necessarily score them. Underestimating Atalanta would be a mistake.
Bayer Leverkusen have already played Atalanta twice in the European Cup, with the Italian side winning both matches in the round of 16 of the 2021-22 UEFA Europa League.
Also interesting: Bayer have only played Inter Milan more often and lost each time – three defeats in three games in major European competitions. So the statistics speak in favor of the Italians, but perhaps Leverkusen can break the curse this time!
However, it is also clear that the German champions have an advantage in terms of the quality of their own play alone and should dictate the game, even if this does not automatically mean they will win.
Nevertheless, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 232 shots in this UEFA Europa League season, the most since Chelsea in 2018-19 with 247.
In three different games this season, Leverkusen have taken over 30 shots – a feat previously achieved only once by a team more than once in a season: Marseille in the 2015-16 season, twice. So Leverkusen are showing impressive offensive power!
My Atalanta Bergamo Leverkusen tip:
Favoring Leverkusen on your own betting slip is not worth it in my eyes in view of the odds.
Because this opponent is in a position to demand an extremely tough fight from the German champions due to their very personal style of play.
After all, Atalanta’s high pressing and extremely physical style of play has already taught Klopps to fear.
For my part, I prefer bets that tend to give the Italians more credit than the sports betting providers do. I’m also up for a high-scoring second half!
My tip: 0:0 at half-time
