Atalanta – Dortmund Tip Champions League, playoffs, second leg on Wednesday, 25.02.2026 at 18:45 CET
The Bergamo team will do everything they can, and the recent 2-1 Serie A win over SSC Napoli will certainly help as well, but I don’t think they will completely turn around the 2-0 deficit on Wednesday!
An Atalanta Dortmund tip for the selection: Both teams to score, meanwhile, promises a manageable odd of about 1.60.
BVB must be prepared for a rush on their own goal of the rather unpleasant kind. Because in 2026, Atalanta has scored an average of 2.29 goals in all six of its home games.
And especially to win with at least a two-goal difference, you can expect maximum pressure from the northern Italians relatively early in the game.
If you are guided exclusively by facts and figures, then for the fans of “La Dea” the drop would probably be sucked before kick-off and an Atalanta Dortmund tip on their favorite team would automatically be invalid.
Because Atalanta have always been eliminated in the last four knockout duels in the European Cup if they had already lost the first leg.
The 2-0 defeat against BVB was also the first time that Atalanta had lost a first leg in a knockout round by more than one goal.
Atalanta – Dortmund Prediction & Betting Tips
For an Atalanta Dortmund tip on the Betano app, which provides for a goal within the first quarter of an hour, you will get back about three times your stake.
In my opinion, this so-called minute bet is clearly in the value bet area. In view of the two-goal deficit, the Bergamo team, motivated after the victory over Napoli, could really push the pace, especially in the opening minutes.
Nevertheless, I also paid attention to the time after the change of sides and decided to choose 2nd half: Over 1.5 goals at odds of currently 2.50.
Did you know that in the 2025/26 Champions League, no other team has scored more goals in the second half than in games in which BVB was involved (26)?
In addition, I can hardly imagine that no matter what turn the game takes at the beginning, the drop will already be sucked at the break. Atalanta will definitely go one better in the second half, even if they are just behind!
What you need to consider when betting on Atalanta vs. Dortmund
- Historic Herculean task: Atalanta must turn around a two-goal deficit. Statistically a mammoth task, as in the history of the Champions League only 15 out of 126 teams (approx. 12%) have progressed after a first-leg defeat with a difference of two or more goals.
- Dortmund’s dominance in the first leg: BVB’s 2-0 win was highly deserved and reflected in the data. While Borussia generated an xG value of 2.09, Atalanta only achieved a meagre 0.46 xG from just seven shots over the entire season.
- Goals seem to be guaranteed, as Atalanta scored in every home game in the calendar year 2026 (average 2.29 goals) and Dortmund have scored at least one goal of their own in nine of the last ten away games.
- Guirassy on course for a record: With 24 goal involvements in just 23 Champions League games for BVB (17 goals, 7 assists), Serhou Guirassy is the most effective Dortmund player in history behind Marco Reus. In the first leg alone, he shone again with a goal and an assist.
Atalanta Bergamo – Dortmund: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Atalanta Dortmund AI prediction has indirectly shown its colors – black and yellow. Because with the selection Double Chance X2, our calculation model tells you that BVB will not be duped, let alone be bowled out of the competition.
In my eyes, however, the odds of about 1.75 traded for this are at my personal “indifference limit” at almost every German betting provider. In other words, in my eyes there is not a positive, but rather a neutral expected value.
The special bet goal(s) in both halves, on the other hand, I think is much more interesting.
Meanwhile, I rate over 3.5 goals as an even better AI suggestion. Because when it comes to values that go in the direction of tripling your stake, I go along wholeheartedly. Especially since I would have already classified lower odds of about 2.24 as “fair” for this type of bet.
There’s no question about it: The starting position, the self-confidence of the Bergamo team and the Black and Yellows’ ability to counter-attack at a fast pace create the ideal conditions for an entertaining match with many goals.
The best odds for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Dortmund
A look at the Atalanta Dortmund odds suggests that the bookmakers believe that the home side can win, but not necessarily the complete comeback after the two-goal deficit. The expectations are differentiated – victory yes, round of 16 rather no.
A home win for ATA is traded at 2.05. The markets are calculating with offensive pressure, intensity and home power. A success in the second leg is considered realistic, but apparently not to the extent that would be necessary for the complete turnaround.
The draw is 3.95. This scenario would play into Dortmund’s hands. Just a controlled game in which the guests dose the tempo and Atalanta starts but does not break through decisively.
An away win for BVB, on the other hand, is recorded at 3.10. The bookmakers respect the efficiency and counter-attacking strength of the Black and Yellows, but do not see them as favourites to win the day.
The Atalanta Dortmund odds thus convey a clear picture: The host is believed to be successful, but from the point of view of the markets, a piece of conviction is missing for the really big catch-up race.
Atalanta vs Dortmund Match Analysis:
Atalanta will definitely have to show more in the second leg than in the first duel, but will face an extremely stable team.
Borussia Dortmund have been convincing defensively in the Champions League so far and have an xGA of just 11.29 after nine games – a value that speaks for structure and discipline.
At the same time, it is hard to imagine that Dortmund will remain without a goal of their own, considering that they score an average of 2.33 goals per game in the competition.
Atalanta, on the other hand, only managed seven shots and a meagre xG of 0.47 in the first leg. That was simply not enough offensively. In front of their home crowd, the intensity is now likely to be completely different because they have to actively tackle the deficit.
However, this is exactly what could develop into an open exchange of blows. When Atalanta presses more aggressively and stands higher, spaces automatically open up for Dortmund counterattacks. And it is precisely these situations that the team plays out ice-cold.
At the same time, the Italians will also be able to score with more risk, which should make the game much livelier than the first leg. I expect a game that has several high phases in both halves in which it really burns.
In the end, however, the defensive stability and efficiency speak more in Dortmund’s favour, even if it should be an entertaining, at times wild evening.
Atalanta Bergamo Form Check
Atalanta need almost a perfect performance in the second leg against Borussia to turn around the 2-0 deficit from the first leg. In Dortmund, Atalanta only managed a few balls in front of goal. Offensively, it was simply not enough to pose a serious threat.
In general, such a comeback in the Champions League is rare: Of 126 teams that lost the first leg by at least two goals, only 15 made it to the next round – most recently Liverpool in 2019 against FC Barcelona in the legendary semi-finals.
After all, the aforementioned 2-1 victory over Napoli in Serie A will have instilled some self-confidence in coach Raffaele Palladino’s players with regard to Wednesday.
Speaking of which: Raffaele Palladino has to improvise, especially offensively. Charles De Ketelaere and Giacomo Raspadori are out injured and will also miss the second leg. Both are not expected back until mid-March.
As a result, Nicola Zalewski is likely to be used more offensively than usual again, although that is not his ideal position. Atalanta needs pace, courage and much more penetration in the final third. Otherwise it will be extremely difficult to seriously shake Dortmund.
Dortmund Form Check
BVB travel to Italy with a comfortable cushion – and history clearly speaks for BVB. In all seven European knockout duels in which Dortmund went into the second leg with at least a two-goal lead, they also booked their ticket to the next round in the end.
That gives self-confidence. However, the recent away record in the Champions League is anything but stable. Only one win from the last five away games, plus four goals conceded in three of these games.
Consistency looks different. And a look at the past also urges caution. Only one win has emerged from the last eight away games against Italian teams, with two draws and five defeats.
In terms of personnel, the defence remains a problem child. Nico Schlotterbeck and Niklas Süle were absent against Leipzig at the weekend and are still considered doubtful. Emre Can is also currently unavailable, which further limits the options in the centre of defence.
Young talent Filippo Mane is even out for at least six months. Dortmund must therefore be wide awake defensively despite the lead. Because if Atalanta scores early, the game can quickly tip over.
