La Liga, Matchday 38 on Sunday, 25.05.2025 at 21:00
Neither of the two top Spanish teams are nervous going into the match on the last day of the season. Barca have already secured the Spanish Primera Division title and Bilbao have secured their place in next season’s Champions League.
Nevertheless, I expect a high-quality encounter in the Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona tip, with both teams looking to end the season on a positive note.
The Catalans face a challenging match in the Basque Country. My recommendation is odds of 2.00 at Merkur Bets for “Barcelona under 1.5 goals.”
In a few years, both clubs will look back on this season and remember it positively, even if the hosts narrowly missed out on the Europa League final at their home ground, San Mames.
Bilbao’s home stadium is their sanctuary and has only been breached once this La Liga season (1D).
Ernesto Valverde’s team always impresses with their commitment and high-pressing defense. They are also good at closing down the opposition, leaving few gaps behind their back line.
Especially at San Mames, the players’ energy usually lasts until the final whistle. Bilbao has conceded the fewest goals in their own stadium in the league (10).
The decisive factor for the Athletic Bilbao Barcelona tip is the regularity with which the Lions have kept clean sheets recently.
Bilbao has finished 44 percent of its La Liga home games without conceding a goal and has not finished a home game with more than one goal conceded.
The last league clash between the two top Spanish teams at San Mames ended goalless. Perhaps some of you want to take a slightly higher risk and bet on “Barcelona under 0.5 goals.”
Considering the best offense in the Spanish Primera Division, this is of course risky (99 goals), but not impossible. You can maximize the value of this bet with the Bwin betting bonus.
Furthermore, I am confident in the fantastic form of Valverde’s team. Bilbao recently celebrated three La Liga wins in a row, consolidating their fourth place in the table.
Even more impressive, however, is a slightly longer streak. The Basques have not conceded a goal in five consecutive league games!
With 34.85 expected goals against, the hosts have the second-best expected defense in the league. Barca is right behind them (40.72 xGA).
You should always expect a goal from the Blaugrana, so I’ve decided to play it safe in my Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona prediction.
However, I think a “double chance 1X” is a viable option. Bilbao has lost only one home game in the entire La Liga season (11W, 6D).
Of course, I am aware that Barca tends to rely on its superior offense to score one more goal than its opponents, even against strong opponents, rather than shutting down the shop at the back.
However, this style of play will make it difficult to compete against a team as well-rehearsed and strong at home as Athletic Bilbao.
In addition, the Catalans lost their last league game (2-3 vs. Villarreal). Bilbao has hardly been rattled by any opponent in recent months, losing only one of its previous eleven league games.
Despite the freedom to play this match regardless of the league table, I expect both teams to give their all.
Barca face one of the two best defenses in the Spanish top flight and will also have to cope with a vociferous crowd.
My Athletic Bilbao Barcelona prediction is: Barcelona to score under 1.5 goals!
