La Liga, 29th matchday on Sunday, 30/03/2025 at 18:30
Personally, I would put a Merkur Bets code to the test together with my Athletic Bilbao Osasuna tip for next Saturday at the same bookmaker.
And the reasons for this are obvious, because there is simply too much evidence to suggest that the home team should get the better of their Basque opponents.
Athletic Bilbao are in fine form, comfortably sitting in fourth place in La Liga and, unlike their opponents, have had plenty of time to prepare for this game.
With Europa League quarter-final ties against Glasgow Rangers looming and a run of three matches without defeat in all competitions (2 wins, 1 draw), they will certainly go into the game against neighbors Osasuna with plenty of confidence.
Historically, Athletic have struggled against Osasuna at home, with just one victory in their last six La Liga meetings at home (4 draws, 1 defeat).
Nevertheless, they have an impressive home run going: they have not lost at home in La Liga since the end of August (7 wins, 4 draws).
One key to this success could be their strong defense; with only nine goals conceded at home, they have the best home defense in the league.
The visitors, on the other hand, have had a shorter break. Furthermore, things are not going well for Osasuna at the moment.
The 3-0 defeat to Barcelona last Thursday extended their negative streak to seven games without a win in all competitions (3 draws, 4 defeats).
This prolonged period of weakness has pushed Jagoba Arrasate’s team into the bottom half of the La Liga table. The relegation battle is no longer an abstract danger for Osasuna, but a reality that is getting closer with every point they lose.
Without an improvement in their performance in the near future, relegation from the top Spanish division could become increasingly likely.
One particularly striking area in which Osasuna is struggling is in their away games. Since their last away win against Real Sociedad in October, they have not won a single away game in the league.
Instead, there have been four draws and as many defeats, underlining the team’s away weakness. It is particularly bitter that they have not scored in any of the four defeats – a clear indication of the team’s offensive problems in foreign territory.
If Osasuna cannot manage to score goals and stabilize their defense in these difficult away games, it will be extremely difficult for them to overcome their crisis.
Looking at the Athletic Bilbao Osasuna odds, you might think that they are a bit too low on average for a home win at 1.50.
However, I disagree, because especially at this late stage of the season, the keyword “freshness” is becoming extremely important.
And as I said: Osasuna was still in action three days ago, while the home side have not had to lace up their boots for about two weeks. You can tell the difference – and how.
I would also tend to expect the hosts to score two rather than just one goal.
The Basques are in form and after the home win over Roma, they are more motivated than ever!
In their last five competitive matches at the Estadio San Mamés, they have already broken the 3-goal mark in four cases as the home team.
Therefore, it is not unrealistic to assume in my Athletic Bilbao Osasuna betting tip that Bilbao will at least score over 1.5 goals. For that alone, I can get a nice odds of about 1.62 in the Bet365 app.
In addition, you must not forget that the guests are extremely affected – in terms of personnel.
The defeat against Barcelona not only cost valuable strength, but also one or two key players!
Because both Herrera and Torro will miss Sunday’s game through a suspension, which of course weakens Osasuna immensely.
Conclusion: A home win bet of around 1.50 is not particularly high, but with this pairing I would classify it as extremely safe.
There are three reasons at once against a strong performance by Osasuna – namely the yellow cards, their general form and the recent game against Barcelona.
Bilbao, on the other hand, are well rested, motivated and always dangerous in their own stadium! 3-0 to Athletic then?
My Athletic Osasuna tip: Bilbao lead at half-time and win in the end too.
