Atletico Madrid – Inter Milan betting tip
Ahead of the Champions League round of 16 second leg between these two heavyweights of European soccer, everything seems to indicate that the Italians will be able to hold on to their lead from the first leg.
In my Atletico Madrid Inter Milan betting tip, you not only get a recommendation for the Intertops free bet, but also plenty of facts and clues that all seem to point in the same direction.
However, there are also some things that speak in favor of the “Rojiblancos”, but will they really be able to turn around the 0:1 tonight? I very much doubt it
It’s hard to believe with two big-name clubs like these, but this is actually the first time Atlético de Madrid have hosted Internazionale in a European Cup match.
However, the Rojiblancos have won seven of their last nine home games against Italian Serie A sides (1 draw, 1 defeat).
Can the Wanda Metropolitano give them the support they need to boost their sluggish attacking play?
In my Atletico Inter Milan betting tip, the answer to that is a resounding no.
The bookmakers’ prediction
The fact that the Rojiblancos were so harmless in the first leg has earned them a surprising amount of respect from reputable bookmakers such as Oddset three weeks later.
Although Inter are once again the favourites in the second leg, the odds of 2.40 to 2.90 in favour of the visitors on average mean that it could almost be described as a perfect balance of power.
Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan
It’s simply beyond words what Milan are doing to their rivals in Italy.
Even without Lautaro Martinez in the center of attack, who was rested for the UCL second leg, Inter managed to defeat Bologna, the second strongest Serie A team in recent months (1:0) last weekend.
Amazingly, this was the “Nerazzurri’s” 13th competitive match win in a row.
Incidentally, Internazionale are aiming to reach the quarter-finals of the top flight for the third time in successive seasons when they visit beautiful Spain today (Wednesday)
Atletico, on the other hand, suffered a dreadful 2-0 defeat to Cadiz just a few days ago, in which the team did not look good at all.
There was little going forward and, in the bigger picture, it was another unnecessary setback for the Rojiblancos, who are completely out of step compared to the Italians.
Simeone’s side have won just two of their last nine La Liga games, against Betis (2-1) and Las Palmas (3-0).
Incidentally, Inter should have won the first leg by a much clearer margin in terms of the quality of the chances they created.
With xG values of 2.33 to 0.61 in favor of the Nerazzurri, the lack of offensive penetration of the Madrilenians was also clearly evident, who were unable to fire a single shot on goal on this occasion
Quota analysis
I have two or three promising Atletico Madrid Inter Milan tips for you.
0:0, 1:1 and 0:1 are the three results that I think are most likely to light up on the scoreboard at the Wanda Metropolitano at the end of this game – in all three cases, Inter would progress.
In terms of betting, I would therefore recommend a simple under-2.5-goal bet with bookmaker Happybet at odds of 1.83, which should not disappoint you!
Inter’s terrible Spain record!
I’m confident that the Madrilenians won’t score more than one goal at most and that it could end in a low-scoring draw.
However, my expectations of the Italians, whose soccer is currently enchanting me, are somewhat dampened by their extremely poor “Spain record”.
Keep in mind: Internazionale have not won (3 draws, 7 defeats) during their last 10 away games against Spanish teams in the top flight since beating Valencia 5-1 in October 2004.
Atletico’s offense is too harmless
In the first part of my Atletico Madrid Inter Milan prediction, I also pointed out that the Spaniards were unable to register a single shot on goal in the first leg against Inter.
This aspect in particular could contribute to a historic chapter in soccer history three weeks later.
After all, the only documented example of a team failing to score in both legs of a Champions League knockout round match was Deportivo de La Coruña against FC Porto in the semi-finals of the 2003/04 season
There is plenty of evidence of Diego Simeone’s team’s lack of penetration in attack against strong opponents!
Since beating Liverpool 3-2 in March 2020, for example, Atlético have scored just three goals in their eight Champions League knockout round matches.
In fact, they have gone goalless on five occasions during that period, including in their last three games!
On the other hand, Inter already have one foot in the last eight according to soccer analysts, and I’m also firmly convinced of that.
Internazionale have progressed from seven of their eight previous knockout round matches in the top flight, in which they have won the first leg.
The exception was the quarter-final against Villarreal in the 2005/06 season, when the Italians were eliminated due to the now defunct away goals rule.
My tip:
Internazionale had the luxury of beating Bologna last weekend, even though key players like Lautaro Martinez didn’t play a single minute.
Atletico, on the other hand, are failing to impress these days even with their best line-up – even against weaker league rivals such as Cadiz.
The Rojiblancos’ offense already proved three weeks ago that they are no match for this opponent, so I would almost be shocked if they managed to score more than one goal at most.
My Atletico Inter Milan betting tip is therefore: There will be less than 2.5 goals in total
