Copa del Rey semi-final second leg, Wednesday, 04/02/2025 at 9:30 p.m.
Despite the short period of recovery, Barca have won their first two matches since the international break. The Catalans have scored seven goals in these two encounters and only conceded one.
Hansi Flick has found the right balance for his aggressive offside trap in the hot phase of the season and has not been beaten in 20 competitive games with the Barcelona club (17W, 3D).
The Copa del Rey is just one of three opportunities for the visitors to win more titles, along with the Spanish Supercopa. For Atletico, on the other hand, it could be their last chance of the season to win a title.
In contrast to Flick’s team, Diego Simeone’s side have recently suffered a number of setbacks. The Colchoneros have not tasted victory in five competitive games.
The dress rehearsal before the semi-final second leg against the Blaugrana was also not a success (1-1 draw against Espanyol). Somewhat unusually for the hosts, the back four has had to weather some stormy spells in recent games.
I am betting on “Barcelona over 1.5 goals” at Merkur Bets for odds of 1.90.
The betting providers’ prediction?
There is absolutely nothing wrong with understanding the betting odds in such a way that a bet on this pairing should primarily be made with a freebet.
Atletico Madrid are generally considered to be a strong team at home. Nevertheless, the betting providers are not holding back with the victory odds of 2.90.
After the Rojiblancos lost the last direct comparison 2-4, the Blaugrana seem to enjoy a small bonus against the Colchoneros. In any case, the guests are slightly superior with odds of up to 2.40 in the Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
We have now set the wall calendar to April and FC Barcelona have still not been beaten in 2025.
Flick’s team still relies on a high pressing defense, coupled with a wild offside trap that is no longer as chaotic as it was in earlier phases of this season.
The Blaugrana’s last competitive defeat came at the hands of Atletico Madrid in December (1-2). Since then, the two Spanish top clubs have already played two more matches. The encouraging 4-4 draw in the first semi-final was followed by a 4-2 comeback win for the Catalans in the league.
A high scoring game should not be the biggest problem in this clash, even though the visitors’ defense has looked quite focused lately.
A closer look at the more recent history of this encounter reveals that the current league leaders have won four of the five previous meetings.
In addition, Flick himself praised his team’s great desire for goal after the successful dress rehearsal against Girona (4-1).
Despite playing away, Barca are just as far from playing a cautious tactic as Lionel Messi is from joining Real Madrid.
Odds Analysis
The last two encounters between Atletico and Barca have taken place in this calendar year. In the style of two predators, the two top Spanish teams went at each other and scored a total of 14 goals against each other.
In addition, the La Liga league leaders have been playing breathtaking attacking football this season, scoring more than 3.5 goals in each game.
If you still have a odds boost left, you can use it to bet on “Over 3.5 goals” and push fantastic odds of around 2.45 even higher.
Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona – Will the better form decide?
Numbers don’t always mean anything, but they can be used to underpin one’s own perception. In the case of Barca, I would like to refer to the number 139.
Under Hansi Flick, the Catalans are the first La Liga club ever to score 139 goals in just 45 competitive games.
Robert Lewandowski, with all his experience in the opposition box, has scored 38 goals in 42 appearances this season. Thanks in part to his strong goal scoring record, the visitors have celebrated six competitive wins in a row recently.
Never fear in the Metropolitano
It has been just over two weeks since FC Barcelona’s last away game at Atletico Madrid’s arena. The Blaugrana were trailing 2-0 until the 72nd minute. Then Barca turned it around and turned the result into a 4-2 away win.
The team from Catalonia has returned home with a victory from each of the last three games in the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. The last time they lost a game at the Rojiblancos’ venue was in October 2021.
Flick’s team will take extra confidence from their recent experience in the Spanish Cup. Barca have emerged as the better team in eight of their last nine semi-final appearances and have qualified for the final.
Hansi Flick has tried to pace his players’ energy despite the tight schedule. For example, the former Germany national team coach rested his second-highest assist provider Raphinha (8 assists) in both line-ups after the international break.
Robert Lewandowski was also allowed to save a few minutes without missing out on scoring in either game.
It is also interesting to look at Ferran Torres, who has used three appearances in the Copa del Rey to score four goals. He may have qualified for another starting eleven appearance after his goals against Osasuna and Girona.
Diego Simeone has a number of key players unavailable for the second semi-final. Captain Koke is currently running out of time to recover, while Angel Correa is out of the picture due to his suspension.
The Argentine coach also has to decide how to deal with the qualities of Lamine Yamal and whether Reinaldo has the necessary skills.
My prediction:
Barca’s magnificent streak of 20 consecutive unbeaten competitive matches sets them apart from Atletico Madrid in my opinion. Offensively, the Catalans exude great energy, constantly threatening the opponent’s goal.
Barca won the last meeting in the Riyadh Air Metropolitano 4-2, outshooting their opponents by a wide margin (77 percent) and overcoming a tricky situation (trailing 2-0).
Furthermore, the Blaugrana have scored at least two goals in three of their last four meetings with the Colchoneros, and have even scored four goals in each of the last two.
I’m going to bet on Barcelona to score at least 2 goals!
