La Liga 28th matchday, Sunday, 03/16/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
Top game alert in Spain! On Sunday evening, Atletico Madrid will host FC Barcelona, and the table shows that it couldn’t be more exciting! Barca has one point more than Atletico, so only a win will do for both.
My Atletico Madrid Barcelona betting tip could, of course, also be closely linked to the Champions League. While Barca made it through easily, Atletico failed in the most dramatic way possible, losing on penalties to Real Madrid of all teams!
No question about it, this game has got plenty of fire. I have decided on the “double chance X2” because of the premier class, and I am adding an “over 1.5 goals”. Of course, this is also because I have not forgotten the recent 4-4 from the Copa.
However, a 1-0 lead, regardless of who scores it, is always just as likely in this duel. That’s exactly what makes this clash so difficult to predict. Maybe the two will play to a draw and Real will be happy about it from afar?
Actually, both Atletico and Barcelona have to take full risks, which certainly won’t hurt the explosiveness. And who knows, maybe we’ll see another nice 4-4, except for the defensive lovers, not many would mind here!
The betting providers’ prediction?
In the first leg, Atletico won 2-1. However, the bookmakers with Apple Pay function do not consider this to be enough to see the Colchoneros ahead this time either, with the odds of winning being an average of 3.15.
On the other hand, Barca concede an average of 2.20. The Catalans won their last two appearances in the Metropolitano, so the conditions are certainly not the worst.
Who would be most happy about a draw? Real Madrid, of course! Since November 2018, this duel has not ended in a draw whenever it was played in the capital, but if you still bet on a tie, you can expect odds of 3.55.
Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
At home against the city rivals in the big Derbi Madrileno, they are knocked out of the Champions League. How? After a penalty shootout in which even the video referee intervened – it really couldn’t be any worse!
Those who support Atletico in Madrid probably still haven’t dried their tears. The Colchoneros are out of the premier league, the second leg last Wednesday was a real drama.
Will this event have any aftermath? In the league, Atletico is in the middle of a three-way battle for the title, but it recently lost 2-1 to Getafe in a surprising defeat that cost it valuable points. Angel Correa was sent off.
Three wins from the last eight games? The team has to get back into a streak as soon as possible, otherwise the competitors will pass them by. Well, the majority of the mistakes are usually made away from home.
Will Atletico lose a league home game for the first time?
The Madrilenians are the only team in the league not to have lost at home yet, and eight goals against also make for the best defense. But things have also gone downhill a bit at the Metropolitano lately.
1-1 against Villarreal, 2-0 against Mallorca, 1-1 against Celta Vigo and 1-0 against Bilbao, two of the last four home games were won. Atletico have only conceded more than one goal once, in the 4-3 win against Sevilla.
So is the “Under 1.5 goals Barca” bet worthwhile for you? Absolutely, because at Betano it pays a strong 1.90. After losing five times in a row (four times without scoring) in the Primera Division, Atletico managed a 2-1 win in the first half of the season.
Odds Analysis
How? Well, in true Atletico style, after falling behind and scoring a last-gasp winner! Incidentally, the Colchoneros have only scored five times in the first half at home, but they have scored 20 goals after the break.
If they don’t score in the first half on Sunday, this bet at Betano will give you odds of 1.75. A 0-0 half-time result is always possible at Atletico (it has happened 11 times), giving odds of 3.35.
FC Barcelona will have followed the Derbi Madrileno very closely, of course, because they themselves made short work of Benfica Lisbon in a 3-1 win. Hansi Flick’s team have also regained their form in the league.
Will Atletico lose a league home game for the first time?
The team has now won six in a row, putting them back on track after a rocky start to the year. They have won 7-1 against Valencia, 1-0 against Alaves, 4-1 against Sevilla, 1-0 against Rayo Vallecano, 2-0 against Las Palmas and 4-0 against Real Sociedad, with clean sheets in both offense and defense.
Only two goals were conceded during this period. Interestingly, nine of them were scored away from home before the break. Nevertheless, Barca are top of the away goals chart, with 38 goals, a tally unmatched by anyone else.
Since the end of October, they have only managed to keep a clean sheet away from home once, something Atletico should bear in mind. How many times has it worked overall? Exactly three! Eight times, possibly a hint, they have conceded exactly one goal.
Interwetten has a great bet for you here, namely that Atletico will score exactly one goal on Sunday. If this tip comes true, you will be rewarded with odds of 2.60 and can also take advantage of the Interwetten Freebet.
My tip:
How quickly will Atletico Madrid recover from their dramatic Champions League exit against Real? They will have to move quickly, because in the league, they are in a three-way battle for the title. The Colchoneros have been in better form before, but they no longer have a winning streak.
The situation is quite different for the visitors from Barcelona. They have resumed exactly that streak and are particularly convincing in offense. What’s more, no tears were shed in the premier class, Barca easily progressed against Benfica.
All in all, I can’t really imagine a home win. Barcelona are in really good shape, no stars are missing. As a result, I’m sending the following tip into the race:
Barca will not lose with over 1.5 goals!
