Atletico Madrid – Botafogo Tip Club World Cup, Group B on Monday, 23.06.2025 at 21:00
While the Club World Cup threatened to degenerate into a European championship after the bookmakers’ original predictions from the quarter-finals onwards, many teams that were initially highly rated are now coming under pressure in the preliminary round.
Atletico Madrid is one of these risk patients, needing little short of a miracle to reach the round of 16 on its own. Only a victory by at least three goals will see the Rojiblancos through without help from elsewhere.
However, I will explain in detail in my Atletico Madrid Botafogo tip why such a landslide victory is not necessarily to be expected in the tournament in the United States.
Doubts about a positive outcome against the South American champions stem primarily from the completely unfamiliar problems in the La Liga club’s camp.
Although Simeone’s team is generally considered to have real defensive qualities, they have conceded an alarming five goals in their first two Club World Cup matches.
Given these problems, it is of course only adding insult to injury that Botafogo are threatening to go on a bit of a rampage at this very moment.
Originally considered a candidate for elimination after the preliminary round, the Brazilians are now unlikely to be denied a place in the round of 16 after their almost sensational victory over PSG.
Atletico Madrid – Botafogo prediction & bets
I am extremely happy with my tip of over 2.5 goals. However, given the constellation in Group B, it even seems legitimate to take a bit of a risk and go for over 3.5 goals in the Atletico Madrid vs. Botafogo tip ahead of the final matchday.
After all, the Madrid team has already shown that their defense is not working so well at the moment. Since Atletico now also needs to score a lot of goals, a loss of control seems inevitable – which the bookmakers are paying out with odds of up to 3.10.
In this context, it could also be a good idea to bet on a high-scoring first half. If both teams score in the first 45 minutes, you will get around 4.4 times your stake back. That’s pretty good!
In order not to shy away from a 1X2 bet, I finally decided on an Atletico win, which is probably not enough to see them through to the next round. You can always find the best offers in our odds comparison!
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Atletico vs. Botafogo
- In the game against Seattle Sounders, Atlético Madrid scored 3.26 xG, the third highest value of the season. This performance is only surpassed by the 5-0 win against Real Valladolid (4.02 xG) and the 4-1 win against Betis (4.86 xG).
- With odds of 8.55, Botafogo’s victory over PSG on matchday 2 was the biggest surprise in the Club World Cup since the 1-1 draw between Al-Sadd and New Caledonian club Hienghène Sport in the 2019 edition (odds 18.38).
- Although Botafogo defeated European champions PSG 1-0, the team was given an Asian handicap of +1.0 for the match against Atlético Madrid, meaning that the Spaniards must win by two goals to win the tie. The Group B leaders can qualify with a draw.
- Prior to this tournament, Atlético had only played one game against a non-European team – against Independiente in 1974. In his coaching career, Diego Pablo Simeone has only experienced one game against a Brazilian team: a 3-5 defeat to São Paulo in the quarter-finals of the 2006 Copa Libertadores.
- Alexander Sørloth currently tops the corresponding ranking with 1.8 xG in two games and only 86 minutes of playing time. However, he also leads another ranking with three missed big chances.
Atlético Madrid – Botafogo: odds analysis
The composition of the group gives all betting fans a unique starting position ahead of the final group game.
We know exactly what Atlético Madrid needs to do on matchday three to advance to the knockout stages. Assuming PSG beats Seattle elsewhere, Atlético must defeat Botafogo by three goals to qualify on goal difference.
Our AI is also aware of this, of course, and has thrown out the required handicap win of -2 as a risk tip for fun. If the Rojiblancos do indeed win by three goals, this would be good for odds of around 6.50 at the best betting providers.
However, as Atlético is not generally considered a goal-scoring machine, I lack the necessary faith to go along with this Atlético Botafogo AI prediction. I feel the same way about the alternative option, which is that the Spanish underdog will win both halves.
Atletico did win both halves against Seattle. However, considering Botafogo’s performance so far, the odds of 4.50 for a repeat found in the Bet 365 app seem far too low.
Of course, the fact that a team has to win does not necessarily mean that it will. The Copa Libertadores winner has given no reason to believe that it will lose by three goals here.
Accordingly, I find what I am looking for in the AI’s third selection. In my opinion, the double chance for Botafogo is definitely worth considering – especially since bookmakers with PayPal are offering odds of up to 2.2 for the Brazilians to finish the preliminary round unbeaten.
The best odds for Atletico vs. Botafogo
Although it is becoming increasingly apparent that the non-European teams were probably undervalued in the original Club World Cup winner bets, the bookmakers are not yet deviating from their original predictions for the Atletico Botafogo match.
As a result, the Spanish representative is once again being offered rather low odds for a win. Even among the top bookmakers, the odds for a vital victory for the Rojiblancos are nowhere near 1.80.
This leads to the somewhat paradoxical situation that there is really good money to be made on the reigning South American champions and recent PSG conquerors.
Both bets on a draw with odds above 3.5 and, even more so, a Botafogo victory at odds of almost 5.00 therefore undoubtedly represent real value!
Atletico Madrid vs. Botafogo match analysis:
Not many would have expected Botafogo to qualify for the knockout stages ahead of PSG and Atlético Madrid, with one of Europe’s top clubs now in danger of missing out on the next round.
Atlético Madrid will now give everything against Botafogo – and hope that the Brazilians make some changes before the game. A sentence that hardly anyone would have expected before the start of the tournament.
But obviously the gap between Europe and Brazil is not as big as had been assumed, and Diego Simeone must either beat Botafogo by three goals or hope that Seattle Sounders achieve a good result against PSG. So far, things are not going according to plan.
With Atlético Madrid needing to make up a goal deficit, the Rojiblancos must approach the game in the same way as they did against the Sounders. A 3-1 win took some of the pressure off, but PSG’s defeat allowed them to celebrate a resurrection.
And although we have now seen two different performances from Atlético, one issue remains: goals. Simeone’s team has failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding five goals in two games, although the team recovered in the second leg.
Botafogo will prove to be a tougher opponent, but it will be interesting to see how much energy the team has left in its legs after the victory against PSG. However, the team is used to playing every three to four days and has proven to be dangerous on the counterattack.
Atletico Madrid form check
While Atlético Madrid’s strikers struggled in the Club World Cup, it was their midfielders who saved them against Seattle Sounders.
Two goals from Pablo Barrios, who scored just one goal in La Liga last season, and Axel Witsel, who has yet to score in 2024/25, were decisive in helping Atlético secure their first three points.
Diego Simeone must have been disappointed that PSG did his club no favors. Now the Spaniards must either beat Botafogo by three goals or hope that their recently defeated opponents can hold the Champions League winners at bay.
Will lightning strike twice? That seems unlikely.
Even more worrying is that the Rojiblancos have yet to keep a clean sheet. Atlético are known for their stability, but there was no sign of that in their first two games, and Botafogo will be hoping to become the third team in Group B to score against the Spaniards.
Botafogo form check
Botafogo has played excellently. In their opening game against Seattle Sounders, the Brazilians were a little lucky after taking a 2-0 lead, but against PSG they were absolutely calm and composed.
Luis Enrique admitted that the Brazilians had the best defense his team had faced this season, which is high praise – and he’s right.
And at the forefront: Igor Jesus. The Brazilian is excelling in his final games for his club before his move to Nottingham Forest and has now scored two goals in two games at the Club World Cup.
Although Jesus is playing excellently, it is the players behind him, including Jefferson Savarino, who have taken the club to the top.
The team is strong in all positions, and European teams have underestimated them. But now it’s time to take Botafogo – and other Brazilian clubs – very seriously in the future.
My tip: Over 2.5 goals
