Atletico – BVB betting tip
Fought well, but lost 1:0 in the end and lost their Champions League place. Dortmund lost 1-0 to Stuttgart in the Bundesliga’s top match on the 50th anniversary of the Westfalenstadion. Not a successful dress rehearsal for the Champions League quarter-final against Atletico Madrid.
Tonight, the first leg kicks off at the Cívitas Metropolitano, the same venue where the Spaniards booked their place in the last eight against Inter Milan in the round of 16.
Will it be another magical night for cult coach Diego Simeone’s team? The host is too far ahead according to the odds, which is why I can already look forward to 1.43 odds for a Dortmund goal in my Atletico Madrid Dortmund betting tip at Interwetten
In the end, Dortmund also lacked accuracy against Stuttgart, the last time the yellow wall saw a home game without scoring was at the beginning of November 2023, when Bayern were the guests, when the Terzic team was beaten 0:4.
The successful revenge followed in the second half of the season with a 2:0 away win at the Allianz Arena. However, Dortmund were unable to add to their tally against Stuttgart and VfB have now drawn level with Bayern, while Dortmund are only in fifth place
The bookmakers’ forecast
Before looking at the 1X2 market, I was expecting fairly even odds, a slight advantage for the hosts, who are desperate to get ahead in their home fortress.
However, the top Champions League bookmakers have Atletico clearly ahead at 1.80, Dortmund’s away win has been assigned 4.50 and the draw is also high at 3.65.
Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs. Dortmund
While Dortmund were fighting for three points at the weekend, La Liga had no game. Atletico have only played one game since mid-March, a 2-1 away win against Villarreal, due to their international fixtures.
Not an ideal situation for the capital side in terms of competitive rhythm, but at the same time they have had longer to prepare for the game against Dortmund and are likely to have fresher legs.
Simeone conceded a 3-0 defeat to Barcelona before the international break; it was in fact the first home defeat at league level, before which the Colchoneros had only lost to Bilbao in the cup at the Cívitas Metropolitano.
In addition to the comeback against Inter Milan, Atltetico also won their three group games, beating Feyenoord 3-2 and Celtic (6-0) and Lazio Roma (2-0) in Madrid. With four wins and two draws, they went into the knockout phase unbeaten.
While Atletico had to count themselves lucky in the first leg against Inter to have only conceded a 1-0 defeat, Alvaro Morata and Co. were able to show a different face in the reunion, winning 2-1 on penalties.
However, the mood is not really good at Real Madrid’s city rivals. Atletico are lagging behind in the league and, like Dortmund, have to worry about qualifying for the Champions League; in fourth place, the team is under pressure from Athletic Bilbao.
Atletico BVB odds analysis
There is no sign of consistency. Just three wins from the last eight games. In addition to the league win against Villarreal and the second-leg success against Inter Milan, only three league points were scored against Betis Sevilla.
During this time, Atletico have not even managed to keep a clean sheet, a staggering statistic for a team that places particular value on compactness and stability when playing against the ball. At the same time, a number that definitely speaks in favor of the Dortmund goal.
At Interwetten, a bookmaker with a long tradition and a strong new customer bonus, there is a 1.43 for the visitors to score. A great bet also in view of the fact that Dortmund scored nine times in a row before the Stuttgart game.
In any case, Borussia is having a strong year in 2024. BVB celebrated seven wins in eleven matches in the second half of the season, with two other games ending in draws. Only the high-flyers from Leverkusen and Stuttgart took more. Dortmund scored twice on average. However, I don’t dare go as far as 3.75 for two Borussia goals.
While browsing the odds in the best sports betting apps, I also discovered interesting odds of 1.80 for the goal of both teams
Mixed feelings at BVB
While Dortmund were unable to keep up with the pace of the top teams in the Bundesliga from the start after narrowly missing out on the title last season, the results in the Champions League repeatedly provided rays of hope.
In the end, Dortmund finished top of the group with three wins and just one defeat in the group of death with Paris SG, AC Milan and Newcastle United. Borussia had two tough games against PSV Eindhoven, but were ultimately able to use the home advantage from the second leg to their advantage.
Dortmund have now scored at least one goal in six consecutive Champions League matches. In addition to the signing of Jadon Sancho and the return of the injured, the improved offense is also due to the arrival of Niclas Füllkrug
Dortmund have also improved in defense
All in all, Dortmund’s play offers a very dangerous mix for any opponent. After all, with Sancho and Karim Adeyemi, Füllkrug, who is a strong finisher, is supported by two fast, dribbling wingers.
The loss of Donyell Malen, who has been struggling with thigh problems but has been in good form of late, is a bitter pill to swallow. The Dutchman has scored eight times in his last seven Bundesliga games and also scored against his former club PSV in the round of 16.
At the same time, Dortmund can also look back on an improved defense. They not only kept a clean sheet at the Allianz Arena, but also against Union Berlin and Eindhoven in the second leg. Dortmund have conceded a maximum of one goal in six matches
Atletico will probably have to improvise in defense. Both central defenders Jose Maria Gimenez and Mario Hermoso are doubtful due to muscular problems. It is therefore worth waiting to see the starting line-up.
If both players are ruled out, the 3.75 for at least two Dortmund goals is definitely hot odds. Despite their strong defensive performances of late, the visitors will not just sit at the back and won’t let their own home game come down to a draw either
2018/2019 Dortmund and Atletico met in the Champions League group stage. Dortmund won the home game emphatically 4:0, with Sancho also netting a goal in his first Dortmund appearance.
Atletico were able to return the favor with a 2:0 win in the reunion, but the group victory went to the Ruhrpott. In 1996/1997, matches were also played in the group stage. Both teams snatched a win each in that season as well
My Atletico BVB tip:
After the win against Bayern, Dortmund suffered a minor setback last weekend. But the direction is still right. In terms of chances, this should have been Dortmund’s tenth game in a row with a goal.
The personnel situation at Atletico is interesting at the moment. There is the threat of a double loss in central defense. With or without Gimenez and Hermoso, I definitely think Dortmund can score. With Sancho, Füllkrug and Adeyemi, BVB have a dangerous trident even in the absence of Malen.
However, due to the strong home record of the Madrilenians, who have only won three of their last eight games and never kept a clean sheet, I don’t dare to go for the “double chance X2”.
Therefore, the 1.43 for the Dortmund goal, which is too high in my opinion, is the perfect bet for Champions League Wednesday! By the way, hot free bet promotions are currently available at Crazybuzzer and Bwin!
My Atletico Madrid Dortmund prediction: Dortmund will score
