Copa Libertadores 2024, Thursday, 26.09.2024 at 00:00
The days until the decision are numbered! The Copa Libertadores will see the four semi-finalists being chosen over the next few days, and the quarter-final second legs couldn’t be more exciting.
In my Atletico MG Fluminense betting tip, I am now looking at a Brazilian duel that promises to be highly exciting, after all, the first match only had one goal. That’s why I’d like to tell you why I’m betting on “Double Chance 1X” for a maximum of three goals.
Was this result to be expected? Not for everyone! Fluminense won the first leg against Atletico MG by a narrow 1-0 margin, putting them in a good position for the second leg on Thursday.
In the 87th minute, Lima headed the ball into the net to make it 1-0. It was a result that came as a surprise and yet somehow fit the bill for this season. They had lost just once in the entire competition, and there was a clear difference between their home and away games.
In the group stage, for example, they only just managed to beat Gremio away from home, and then in the round of 16 Fluminense once again relied on their home strength. They lost 2-1 to Gremio, but a successful penalty shootout saved them in the next round.
2:1, 2:1, 3:2, 2:1, 1:0? These results were collected at home, so when they win, it is always by one goal. But now Fluminense have to play away and somehow defend a 1-0 lead.
1:1, 0:0, 1:0 and 1:2, even away from home, the games were very, very close, but far less successful. Incidentally, the fact that things are getting rather less spectacular can also be seen in the league.
Since mid-June, there has been exactly one game in which the number of goals scored exceeded the 2.5 mark – and in this 1-2 defeat to Juventude, the opponents scored twice in injury time.
I should also mention that Fluminense have only scored two away goals exactly once. No wonder the Betano app says: If the guests score at all against Atletico, the odds will jump above 1.60!
The fact that only one of the last five matches against Atletico was lost speaks historically for Fluminense. However, the bookmakers are much more skeptical about a win or advancing.
4.60 to 1.85? Choosing the favorite is quite easy for the bookmakers, Atletico is ahead. But: as far as simply getting through is concerned, it is the guests who know: we are seen as the favorites!
A 1.55 meets a 2.40 here, the 1-0 from the first leg apparently weighs relatively heavily. Atletico MG will have to catch up, score a quick goal and hope that the opponent is in shock.
It’s a good thing that the decision will be made at home, because Atletico is particularly strong here. And not just because everything was won in the preliminary round, with 2-1, 3-2 and 4-0 wins here.
In the round of 16, it was similar. After a 1-1 draw at San Lorenzo, their own stadium had to help again, this time a 1-0 was enough. So it doesn’t always have to be spectacular, sometimes minimalism also prevails.
Should there also be a 1-0 on Thursday, the road would at least lead to extra time. Incidentally, Atletico are only just starting to make an appearance in the double-digit range in the Brazilian league, apparently the focus is on international business.
The 2013 champions have not been in the top four for three years, so they know how to perform in a quarter-final. But: Fluminense are the defending champions, so there is certainty on that side too!
The bookmakers agree: Fluminense are the favorites to advance, but Atletico are favorites to win on Thursday. So what does that mean for the second leg of the quarter-final?
In my opinion, we are facing two teams that are absolutely evenly matched. However, Fluminense are significantly weaker away than at home, and now have to go away.
On the other hand, I have been able to see how stable their form is in their own stadium. As a result, I am against an away win and instead I am taking the following bet:
Atletico MG will not lose with a maximum of three goals!
