Champions League, Thursday, 19.09.2024 at 21:00
While everyone is talking about a resurgent Bayern, a revamped Dortmund and title-defending Leverkusen, the question for me is: How good is RB Leipzig?
The first real yardstick will be provided by the clash with Atletico Madrid on the first Champions League matchday. The Spaniards have been successful at the start of the season and are traditionally strong at home.
Accordingly, in my Atletico RB Leipzig betting tip, I assume that the Bundesliga side will have to push themselves to the limit to take something worthwhile from the Cívitas Metropolitano.
In general, the question is where RB are heading. In the Bundesliga, the Saxons are always among the front runners without being able to position themselves as serious title contenders.
And they have not been consistently successful in the top flight in recent years either. So if I had to pick a winner in my Atletico RB Leipzig prediction, I would tend to favor the Madrilenians.
In the end, however, I opted for the “Both teams score” bet, as I think Leipzig will score at least one goal regardless of the actual result of the game.
At this point, I can reveal that 1:1 and 2:1 for Atletico are among the most likely outcomes from my point of view.
But of course I will present you with numerous other betting alternatives based on the available statistics for the Champions League opener.
The bookmaker forecast
The question of the favorite does not really arise for top bookmakers like Merkur Bets. Unsurprisingly, Atletico Madrid go into the game with a noticeable advantage.
The odds for a home win settle at a tight 1.80. A Leipzig win is listed much higher at 4.30 and can therefore only be considered a risk tip.
The draw is rather unremarkable at 3.90 and offers solid value given the starting position.
KI prediction Atletico vs RB Leipzig: ChatGPT
As you know, AI is omnipresent these days. So it’s only logical that ChatGPT has its very own take on the match between Atletico Madrid and RB Leipzig.
In fact, the Madrid RB Leipzig AI prediction really hits the nail on the head right from the start. The bet “Leipzig to win by one goal” is listed as a risk tip.
The odds of around 6.00 are indeed profitable. However, I don’t see RB winning at Atletico Madrid.
The medium-risk bet brings André Silva into play. If the Portuguese scores against Atletico, odds of 4.33 are due. I can’t disagree here. However, it should be noted that Silva is currently a substitute.
ChatGPT classifies the bet “Over 2.5 goals” as a low-risk bet. I’m not really satisfied with this, as I’ve already mentioned that I have my eye on the 1:1, among other things.
Analysis: Atletico vs RB Leipzig
After five completed matchdays in the Primera División, Atletico Madrid are on target.
With three wins and two draws, they are currently joint top of the table with city rivals Real and are therefore also title contenders.
Offensively, there is hardly anything to complain about. After all, they have already scored nine goals this season. If the Spaniards score at least twice against RB, there are solid odds of around 1.70.
RB Leipzig had to settle for a 0-0 draw against Union Berlin on the last Bundesliga matchday.
However, with seven points after three matchdays, the Saxons are also on track. In fact, they have never been more consistent under Marco Rose.
They have conceded just one defeat in their last 20 games this season. The last competitive defeat came in February 2024 against FC Bayern (1:2).
From a statistical point of view, anyone who wants to target the “double chance X2” for the match against Atletico is on solid ground.
Quotenanalyse
A closer analysis of the Atletico Leipzig odds reveals the following aspect:
Although the bookmakers – as already explained – clearly see the Spaniards as the favorites, the Betano app does not assume that the game will tilt in the hosts’ favor before half-time.
With odds of 2.30, a draw is the most likely result at half-time. From this it can be deduced that the bookmakers expect a much more turbulent second half.
And indeed, the bet “The 2nd half is the half with the most goals” has significantly lower odds (1.90) than the opposite bet (3.10). However, if you want to take full risk, you could also target the bet “Atletico win & both teams score”.
Advantage no. 1: The odds are 3.60. Advantage no. 2: The 2:1 for Atletico would be covered here.
Atletico are hard to beat at home!
The bad news for RB Leipzig. There aren’t too many teams in Europe that are more consistently successful at home than Atletico Madrid.
An indication of this: they won 16 of their 19 league home games last season. The fact that they still ended up 19 points behind champions Real Madrid in the final standings shows the discrepancy between Atletico at home and Atletico away.
Furthermore, Leipzig’s away statistics in the last Bundesliga season are by no means outstanding. With eight wins, four draws and five defeats, they did not even win every other away game.
An application letter for an away win at Atletico Madrid looks very different indeed.
Leipzig like to think of Atletico!
The direct comparison unfortunately only helps us to a limited extent.
After all, the only time Atletico Madrid and RB Leipzig have met so far was in the 2019/20 coronavirus season. In that quarter-final (without a second leg), RB Leipzig won 2:1.
Leipzig’s overall record against Spanish teams is mixed. Four wins were followed by two draws and three defeats.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have a long tradition with the Bundesliga. Surprisingly, the Madrid side suffered the most defeats against Bundesliga clubs against Bayern and BVB (four each).
When it comes to Champions League experience, the Spaniards naturally have the edge.
Madrid have even reached the final of the premier class twice since 2013, but were beaten by city rivals Real each time.
For RB Leipzig, reaching the semi-finals in 2020 was the highest of feelings (0:3 against PSG).
Nevertheless, the Saxons showed their resilience for the most part in the group stage. This is RB’s seventh time in the top flight. So far, they have only been knocked out twice in the preliminary round.
Nevertheless, from today’s perspective, Leipzig are not among the top contenders for one of the first eight places in the new preliminary round mode.
My Atletico RB Leipzig tip:
There is no doubt: RB Leipzig are in good form and want to play for the title this Bundesliga season.
The problem: Atletico are also in good form, are title contenders in Spain and also have the home advantage and more international experience.
I therefore do not believe that Leipzig will be able to take all three points from Madrid. However, due to RB’s general stability, I think the Saxons can score at least one goal.
I don’t think Atletico will score at home anyway.
Accordingly, my Atletico RB Leipzig betting tip is: Both teams score at least one goal each
