Atletico – Real Madrid Prediction La Liga, Matchday 7, 09/27/2025 at 4:15 p.m.
This is the first real hurdle for Xabi Alonso on the road to the La Liga title. And according to my Atletico Real Madrid tip, the successful coach will master this task – albeit with a goal conceded.
The Rojiblancos’ defense is no longer as stable as it was last season, when Diego Simeone’s team left the pitch with a clean sheet in 17 of the 38 matchdays. So it could be a wild game.
With a free bet and Kylian Mbappe in fantastic form, I personally see no reason why the Royals shouldn’t be able to secure their first away win at the Metropolitano Stadium since 2022 this coming Saturday.
Atletico vs. Real Madrid AI predictions:
Our Atletico Real Madrid AI prediction comes with the tip Over 2.5 goals & Both teams to score, which promises odds of around 1.95 on the betting markets and is really only for you if you simply don’t believe the Royals can get the three points.
The home side will definitely be putting the pressure on! The Colchoneros created many chances in their recent victory over Rayo Vallecano. At the end of the game, they had an xG value of 3.61 and were credited with seven big chances.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Atletico win |
Draw |
Real Madrid win |
| 38.6% |
25.5% |
35.9% |
Incidentally, Real has already led at halftime in five of six league games this season. Consequently, I particularly like the second computer-generated suggestion – halftime/final score 2/2.
Especially since the corresponding odds of 3.75 in the handy Bwin app outweigh any risk. Alonso’s team can certainly make their mark on this game after a strong first half, no question!
Kylian Mbappe to score is ultimately a 50:50 proposition at odds of around 2.05, with what I consider to be a very positive expectation of winning. Personally, I even give this bet an 80% chance of success.
The French international has scored at least one goal in every game he has played for both France and Real Madrid throughout September – often two, as was the case in the last match against Levante.
What you need to consider when betting on Atletico vs. Real Madrid
- Only four La Liga teams have underperformed their xG more than Atletico Madrid – nine goals with 10.78 xG.
- Real Madrid leads the league in xG (13.6), 1.83 xG ahead of Barcelona, but has scored two fewer goals.
- “Both teams to score” has won in five of Atletico’s six league games this season and in the last six matches against Real Madrid.
- Since the start of last season, Kylian Mbappé has scored 38 goals in 40 La Liga games – the highest tally in the league; Robert Lewandowski follows with 29 goals.
