Auckland – Boca Juniors Tip Club World Cup, Group C on Tuesday, 24.06.2025 at 21:00
Given the class difference between the amateurs and semi-professionals from New Zealand and the star-studded top club from Argentina, the only question in my Auckland Boca Juniors tip is how big a win coach Miguel Ángel Russo’s team will get.
Since Boca needs to make up seven goals in the battle for the round of 16 in the Club World Cup against Benfica, which cannot earn any points against Bayern, I assume that the Argentines will throw everything forward to secure the necessary landslide victory.
A handicap bet is essential given the Auckland Boca Juniors betting odds, as a 1-x-2 bet on a Juniors win will only return the stake.
This fact, coupled with the pressure on the Boca Juniors to win by a landslide in order to knock Benfica out of second place in Group C (assuming the Portuguese lose to FCB), leads me to a slightly higher handicap bet.
My Auckland Boca Juniors prediction is: Boca to win by at least six goals.
Auckland – Boca Juniors prediction & bets
I have already mentioned my expectation of a big win for the Argentinians, but in my Auckland Boca Juniors prediction you will of course find more exciting bets for the last matchday of the Club World Cup.
The New Zealanders are already out of the competition and have a goal difference of 0:16. The odds on Auckland scoring their first goal are correspondingly high. At one of our latest bookmakers in our test, you will not only find a VBET promo code, but also odds of 4.40 if the New Zealanders actually manage to score.
Boca Juniors, who have performed very well against the two European clubs, will have to go for goals from the first minute. And preferably at least six times without conceding. A corresponding bet on over 5.5 Boca goals without conceding brings odds of around 2.30.
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Auckland vs. Boca Juniors
- After the second matchday, no team has conceded more xG than Auckland City (9.9). The New Zealanders are also bottom of the table in terms of touches in the opponent’s penalty area (8).
- Boca has now gone six competitive games in a row without winning in 90 minutes. That’s their longest streak since October 2023.
- Boca Juniors must make up a seven-goal deficit to overtake Benfica (2nd) in Group C. With over 6.5 goals for Boca at odds of 2.63, the bookmakers are giving the Argentinians an implied probability of 38.1% of winning by a large margin.
- Boca Juniors has played nine games against non-South American teams, recording four wins, two draws, and three losses. For Auckland City, this is their 20th game against a team outside the AFC, but their first encounter with a South American team.
- Auckland City has rotated its goalkeepers in this tournament so far. Conor Tracey conceded 10 goals against Bayern. Nathan Garrow kept Benfica to just six goals and saved 10 shots. On matchday 2, Auckland had an xG value of 5.63, compared to 4.28 against Bayern.
Auckland – Boca Juniors: odds analysis
Boca Juniors is the clear favorite with the bookmakers, with a probability of over 99%. A win for Auckland City is rated by the bookmakers as having a probability of around 1%, which would be one of the biggest upset wins in a single sports betting event of all time.
Given this, you as a bettor will naturally be interested in exploring markets beyond the traditional 1X2 bets.
Handicap betting is probably the first option that comes to mind. The odds for a Boca win with HC -5 are 1.98. Given that the Xeneizes need to improve their goal difference and hope for a Benfica defeat against Bayern Munich, this looks like a promising betting option.
Auckland City has conceded 16 goals in two games with an xGA value of 9.9, so a bet on a Boca win by at least six goals seems justified.
The timing of the first goal will be crucial. Most bookmakers are offering odds above even money for Boca Juniors to score in the first 10 minutes, just like Bayern Munich did against the New Zealanders. This is another promising option.
In the goalscorer market, Edinson Cavani and Miguel Merentiel are solid tips, but you should also select one or two additional options due to the betting odds (1.17 and 1.18 respectively).
The best odds for Auckland vs. Boca Juniors
Auckland City’s 20th game against a team outside the AFC is their first meeting with a South American team.
The New Zealanders have only managed five wins against intercontinental opponents, most recently in December 2014, when they beat Mexican club CD Cruz Azul 5-3 on penalties in the third-place play-off.
Since then, Auckland City has lost seven games in this competition, conceding a total of 27 goals. The team’s only goal during this period came in a 2-1 defeat to Kashima Antlers in 2016.
Boca Juniors have played nine times against teams outside South America, recording four wins, two draws and three defeats. The Xeneizes have not won against a non-CONMEBOL opponent since December 2007.
Neri Cardozo scored the 1-0 winner against Etoile Sportive du Sahel in the semi-finals in the 37th minute. Four days later, Boca lost 2-4 to AC Milan, with Rodrigo Palacio and Pablo Ledesma scoring for the Argentinians.
However, that is likely to change on Tuesday evening. The 1×2 odds for a Boca victory are just 1.01, which is anything but lucrative. The situation is completely different for Auckland, whose success I consider impossible.
Here, the odds are in double digits, with even a draw paying out 31.0 times the stake at Bwin, for example.
Auckland vs Boca Juniors match analysis:
Most people predicted that Auckland City would finish bottom of Group C. However, few would have thought that Boca Juniors would still have a chance of qualifying after their first two games.
But after the Argentines held Benfica to a draw and almost did the same against Bayern, this is their chance to claim their first victory in the Club World Cup 2025. They could still reach the round of 16 if Benfica slip up against the Bundesliga champions.
Their aggressive style of play has surprised the European teams. No one expected such physical toughness, and that will also be the case against Auckland City.
The semi-professional team may dominate at home and in Oceania, but Boca is still one of the biggest clubs in South America despite its recent slump domestically.
And the Argentines are hungry for goals. They need seven and know that Bayern could do them a favor by beating Lisbon. Miguel Ángel Russo’s men will put their opponents under pressure from the start.
Goals are the goal, and Boca is capable of scoring six. Benfica struggled, but they weren’t as aggressive – and with the Boca fans expected to turn up in force, the Argentinians could make this group extremely interesting again as it heads towards the final.
Auckland form check
It has been an unforgettable experience for the New Zealanders, but their stay in the new Club World Cup format comes to an end on Tuesday evening.
After losing 10-0 to Bayern Munich, Auckland City managed to keep Benfica at bay until stoppage time in the first half. The New Zealand team was eventually caught out by a number of attacks. Angel Di Maria punished them from the penalty spot.
Trailing by just one goal at half-time, the result was a significant improvement on their opening game.
But the experience and fitness of the Portuguese ultimately made the difference. Five more Benfica goals followed, and Auckland had to leave the pitch with another heavy defeat.
Boca will again be a (too) big challenge, as the Gauchos’ aggressive, more offensive style of play will be no easier to cope with than the tasks against Bayern and Benfica.
However, the financial gains for the Oceanic club are already enormous simply by participating. The semi-professional club is still a long way from being able to compete with the European and South American teams.
Boca Juniors form check
Boca was very unlucky to only pick up one point from its first two games. On the first matchday, Boca squandered a lead against Benfica.
The team went into the last 20 minutes with a 2-1 lead and even had an extra man on the pitch. Nevertheless, Nicolas Otamendi scored the equalizer for the Portuguese side in the closing stages.
Boca put in an extremely strong performance against Bayern Munich and shocked the German champions with an equalizer in the second half.
Michael Olise’s late goal secured FCB’s place in the round of 16 and leaves the Argentine club with the daunting task of giving everything in their final group game.
The Juniors now need Bayern’s help to have any chance of advancing.
Benfica cannot afford to drop any points against FCB, while Boca Juniors will need to make up six goals against the Portuguese side, as their goal difference will worsen by at least one goal if they lose.
My tip: Boca Juniors to win with HC -5
