Madrid Masters, Final, Sunday, 05.05.2024
Nobody expected the pairing of Felix Auger-Aliassime and Andrey Rublev before the start of the tournament in Madrid. The Canadian was still panting after his former top 10 form and Rublev had experienced one debacle after another in his first clay court tournaments.
He finally turned on the heat in the Spanish capital, taking Carlos Alcaraz out of the field, among others. Interwetten sees him as the clear favorite against Auger-Aliassime, which I can only underline and for better odds I’m going to bet on him to win the first set as well as the victory
Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud and Daniil Medvedev were the names the bookmakers expected to be in the final of the penultimate clay court tournament before the French Open.
Instead, Rublev and Auger-Aliassime will meet for the sixth time. Players who were given tasty double-digit odds in the higher end of the tournament win market before the start.
After all, Rublev lost to Alexei Popyrin in Monaco at the start of the tournament and also had to pack his tennis bag in Barcelona after losing to Brandon Nakashima at the start of the tournament. Surprising results against players who, unlike Rublev, have hardly made an impression on the red clay in the past
In the fast conditions of Madrid, the Russian returned to form, winning five matches up to the final, only dropping two sets against local heroes Alcaraz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
He also took Facundo Bagnis, Rune conqueror Tallon Griekspoor and most recently Taylor Fritz out of the field. The self-confidence of the one-time Masters champion from Monaco 2023 has returned. Auger-Aliassime has also been able to recharge his batteries.
Above all, the victory in the round of 16 against Barcelona winner Ruud (6-4, 7-5) gave the Canadian a boost, and in terms of play, he also wrestled back Adrian Mannarino and Yoshihito Nishioka
The rest took care of itself. Auger-Aliassime had a much easier path to the final. Jakub Mensik had to retire in the third round due to injury, as did Jiri Lehecka, and Jannik Sinner did not even make an appearance in the quarter-finals.
However, there can be no talk of a freshness advantage on Sunday. Rublev hardly played any tournaments last week and the tennis stars had a day off between the semi-finals and final. On the contrary, anything other than a Rublev victory would surprise me.
The best tennis betting providers have given him odds of around 1.35, and in the event of an Auger-Aliassime win, the stake can be tripled. However, the odds are still too low in my opinion. Yes, the Ruud win was an eye-catcher, but it was also the only really noteworthy success against an absolute top player
In addition, it should not be forgotten that Ruud has had an exhausting few weeks at the tournament. The Norwegian reached the final in five matches in both Monaco and Barcelona, as well as the semi-finals in Estoril. He played his 16th match against Auger-Aliassime in April.
Because of this victory, Auger-Aliassime is somewhat overrated in the betting for the final in Madrid. The direct duel against Rublev also speaks for itself. The man from Moscow leads it 4:1.
Only in Rotterdam on hard court did he lose to the now 23-year-old, who will make a big leap from 35th place to the top 20 with the Masters points after the week. Incidentally, Rublev also won the first set against Auger-Aliassime four times
My Auger-Aliassime Rublev tip
Auger-Aliassime had quite a relaxed last few days in Madrid. Overall, he benefited from his opponents retiring or not playing in every other match. Overall, the game of the Canadian, who is striving to regain his former top form, is still too error-prone.
It should be difficult against Rublev, who is getting stronger from match to match after two defeats in Monaco and Barcelona and was able to knock double defending champion Alcaraz out of the tournament. The direct comparison also says a lot with 1:4.
I wouldn’t rate the Auger-Aliassime win against Ruud, who played 16 matches in April, too highly, as it was the only impressive success against a top player in recent months. Rublev is definitely playing the better tennis at the moment.
Therefore, my Auger-Aliassime Rublev tip is: Set 1 & Match Rublev
