Augsburg – Dortmund Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 9 on Friday, 10/31/2025 at 8:30 p.m.
In tonight’s Bundesliga Friday night game, FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund will bring to a close what has been a completely contrasting English week so far. While the Fuggerstadt team played two indisputable home games against Leipzig and Bochum, BVB came out on top twice.
The Westphalians immediately returned to winning ways in the Bundesliga with a last-minute victory against Cologne after their defeat in Munich, and the team then went on to win the cup in Frankfurt on penalties.
As the course of the last few days somehow reflects the entire season so far, there are no two opinions about who the best sports betting providers favor in this matchup.
I have also decided to continue with the current trends in my Augsburg vs. Dortmund prediction: with a clean sheet away win, the Black and Yellows will secure their sixth clean sheet of the Bundesliga season.
Of course, when making an Augsburg BVB prediction, it is also important to bear in mind that Dortmund has won only one of its last four matches against the Bavarian Swabians – and even came away empty-handed in both matches last season.
On top of that, BVB coach Niko Kovac is facing a personal bogey team: he has won just two of 12 matches against FCA (5D, 5L) – only against Bayern is his personal record slightly worse.
However, Augsburg’s total of just five wins in 28 matches over the long term clearly shows the balance of power that can be expected on matchday 9, especially as the hosts seem determined to break all their negative club records this season.
Augsburg – BVB Prediction & Bets
After their heaviest Bundesliga home defeat against RB Leipzig (0-6), Augsburg managed to get away with only one goal against second-division Bochum. However, the currently worst defense in the Bundesliga is likely to be much less of a challenge for Borussia.
In this respect, the Augsburg BVB tip of at least two Dortmund goals seems to be a fairly obvious idea, which is why the bookmakers are only offering a rather modest odds of around 1.53.
Once again, my first choice for goalscorer is Serhou Guirassy, whose next goal is long overdue. Four games without a goal mark his longest dry spell since 2022, but that doesn’t have to remain the case – odds 1.80.
Against a host team that is expected to be unsettled, the Black and Yellows could also set the tone early on. If the tip for half-time/full-time Dortmund/Dortmund comes in, you’ll get around 2.25 times your stake back.
What you need to know about Augsburg vs. Dortmund betting
- FC Augsburg have yet to keep a clean sheet this season, while BVB have never left the pitch without scoring.
- No team has a lower expected goal ratio in the league after eight Bundesliga games than Augsburg with 8.14 xG (expected goals).
- Looking at the last five matchdays of the Bundesliga season, no team has scored fewer goals than BVB: 6:3.
- After Augsburg’s 0-6 home defeat to RB Leipzig, the 1×2 market in the odds for Augsburg vs. Dortmund has shifted in favor of the visiting team from 1.80/-125 to 1.73/-137, with only three points now separating Heidenheim in 17th place and Augsburg (15th).
- Maximilian Beier’s winning goal in the 90+6th minute was Borussia Dortmund’s last goal in the Bundesliga this season. Beier also scored in the 45+6th minute against Heidenheim on matchday three, securing all three points in both games.
Augsburg – Dortmund: AI tip & odds analysis
Unlike me, the Augsburg BVB AI prediction has come up with the tip “both teams to score” at odds of just 1.53 – which is certainly statistically plausible in principle.
Before the current English horror week, the Fuggerstadt team had finally shown themselves to be quite accurate, which is why there were goals on both sides on each of the first seven match days.
Sandro Wagner’s playing philosophy is also designed to ensure that both goals are involved in the action. At the expense of an often exposed defense, FCA has recorded the most high ball wins of any Bundesliga team so far this season.
If Augsburg sticks to this approach, the predicted over 2.5 goals could indeed be reached quite quickly. However, betting fans will have to settle for a return of only 50% on an Augsburg Dortmund tip.
The fact that betting providers are so cautious with a total of at least three goals is certainly also due to the fact that the visitors alone are capable of scoring three goals at the WWK Arena.
Our AI’s Augsburg Dortmund prediction clearly sees it the same way, as proven by the final result prediction from our in-house artificial intelligence.
For the tip on a 3-1 away win, which of course carries considerable risks, new customers could use the Betano voucher at odds of around 11.0, for example.
The best odds for Augsburg vs. Dortmund
If you want to construct a kind of bogey team status for the Fuggerstadt team based on FC Augsburg’s two victories in the previous two years, the Augsburg BVB odds will quickly teach you otherwise.
Dortmund’s odds of winning, which don’t even quite reach the 1.7 mark, suggest that Wagner’s crisis is far from over.
However, if, contrary to expectations, FCA were to rise like a phoenix from the ashes at the start of the soccer weekend, this would also be extremely attractive for daring bettors.
The odds of around 4.3 for a draw and, above all, the odds of 4.7 for a home win make a surprise in Augsburg quite interesting, even if I personally don’t really believe in it…
Augsburg vs Dortmund match analysis:
Ahead of Friday’s game, the two opponents look back on a completely contrasting week. While FCA suffered a cold shock against Leipzig and Bochum, BVB celebrated last-minute wins against Cologne and Frankfurt.
Dortmund goes into this game with a ten-point lead over its opponent. Niko Kovac’s team wants to consolidate its place in the Champions League in the coming months, so it is extremely important to continue to achieve good results.
Augsburg will once again try to put pressure on its opponent high up the field, but this leaves the defense dangerously exposed.
Sandro Wagner’s team has the fifth fewest passes per defensive action (PPDA) in the Bundesliga. However, opponents have been able to easily bypass this pressure and create numerous clear scoring chances.
The Bavarian Swabians concede an average of 0.16 xG (expected goals) per shot, which is the highest figure in the German top flight. Dortmund has a wealth of creative talent, so this trend is likely to continue.
BVB are strong defensively and have the second-best defense in the Bundesliga. Kovac will be keen to ensure that complacency in defense does not become a problem in a game in which Dortmund are likely to dominate.
Augsburg Form check
Augsburg was beaten 6-0 by Leipzig last weekend. Ole Werner’s team had six great scoring chances, but defensive problems continue to plague the home team.
This painful defeat leaves Sandro Wagner’s team just one place above the relegation zone ahead of the ninth matchday, and they now face Dortmund, who are also capable of big wins.
Ahead of this tough test, FCA also has another bitter disappointment to contend with after their defeat to second division side Bochum, which of course further clouds the prospects for the coach.
Augsburg has lost five of its first eight games for the first time ever, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game. The team’s defense needs to improve if it wants to escape the relegation zone.
Wagner’s team concedes an average of 13.75 shots on goal per game, which is just above the Bundesliga average of 13.4. However, the quality of chances is a major problem. Augsburg has the highest xGA (expected goals against) in the league at 17.1.
For the majority of betting enthusiasts, such figures are likely to provide valid reasons to withdraw their confidence in the Fuggerstadt team at Augsburg BVB.
Dortmund form check
Dortmund scored the winning goal late in their last league game against Cologne, but the three points were deserved. Niko Kovac’s team had 27 shots on goal, 22 more than their opponents, and 70% possession.
The Westphalians also showed their stamina in the cup clash in Frankfurt during the week, cheating their way into a penalty shootout to eliminate a direct rival in the battle for the cup victory.
BVB continues to flourish under Kovac. The coach already ensured a fantastic end to the season in the spring, securing the team a place in the Champions League despite a disastrous first half of the season.
After eight games this season, Kovac’s team is in 4th place. Bayern Munich, the overwhelming favorite to win the Bundesliga, is the only team to have beaten Dortmund.
A defeat against RB Leipzig in March prompted Kovac to make a tactical change. Since then, Dortmund has not had any major problems. It is to be expected that the strong performances will continue in the coming months, starting with the game against Augsburg.
