Augsburg – Leverkusen Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 13 on Saturday, 06/12/2025 at 15:30 CET
Anyone who claims in the early stages of the season that their own team is at a similar level to FC Bayern and then is 24 points behind the record champions at the time of dismissal cannot have done everything right.
But even without polemical malice, one thing is clear: Sandro Wagner and FC Augsburg – that never really fit. On matchday 13, Manuel Baum is now expected to lead Augsburg back on track with a win against Bayer Leverkusen. The question, however, is: Is that realistic?
The fact is: Augsburg (together with Heidenheim) has the poor defense in the league with 27 goals conceded and now faces the second-best offense (28 goals). Accordingly, in my Augsburg Leverkusen tip, I opt for the bet “Bayer over 1.5 goals” at odds of around 1.65 at Betano.
I think you can say that Bayer Leverkusen have already digested the 2-1 home defeat against Borussia Dortmund on the last Bundesliga matchday. A few days later, they finally threw BVB out of the cup and are themselves in the quarter-finals.
Accordingly, there is no reason to doubt that the Werkself will be confident in Augsburg and dominate FCA, especially in terms of play. And if you can score two goals for Manchester City, you should be able to do the same in Augsburg.
Augsburg – Leverkusen Prediction & Betting
Since Augsburg has the nominal home advantage and should go into the game with new vigour after the change of coach, I trust the Fuggerstädter to score the first goal of the game. In my view, the odds around 2.40 justify the risk.
However, I assume that Augsburg will not score more than one goal. In my opinion, the second betting alternative is therefore “Augsburg under 1.5 goals” at odds of about 1.50. In the last eight games, they have only scored more than one goal against Stuttgart (2:3).
A clear victory for Bayer Leverkusen is not unrealistic from my point of view. As a risk tip, I therefore bring “Win Leverkusen with handicap -1” into play. The odds are 3.30 and a 3-1 win for Bayer would really look good on the game.
What you need to know about Augsburg vs. Leverkusen betting
- Augsburg’s xGA value (Expected Goals Against) is 23.21 – the highest in the Bundesliga. Now FCA will face the third-best xG attack in the league according to the underlying data: Leverkusen has 20.58 xG.
- Kasper Hjulmand has lost only three of his 17 competitive games as Leverkusen coach, with ten wins. So far, only Bayern, Dortmund and PSG have been able to defeat Hjulmand’s team.
- Augsburg have played five league games this season against teams that are currently in the top 6. All five matches were lost – with an average of 3.2 goals conceded per game. This explains why the guests are considered the clear favourites.
- Leverkusen’s Patrick Schick is – as is so often the case – the favourite in the market of “anytime goalscorers”. No player on the pitch has a higher xG value than Schick’s 4.49 xG. The Czech international has scored five goals and provided two assists in ten games so far this Bundesliga season.
Augsburg – Leverkusen: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model is also in use during the Advent season and presents you with three more betting alternatives in its Augsburg Leverkusen AI forecast.
With the first tip, it makes the digital clear and simple. “Sieg Leverkusen” can easily be played as a single bet at odds of around 1.90. And I think that the away win rate at the German betting providers is surprising. FCA have lost five of their last six games and are down four after six home games.
The AI has also picked out a combination bet. “Win Leverkusen & Over 2.5 goals” fits the starting position in my opinion. With odds around 2.60, you’re doing very well – even without an odds boost. For the back of your mind: The last two Bundesliga wins for the Werkself came about in exactly the same way (3-1 against Wolfsburg, 6-0 against Heidenheim).
Finally, the AI goes to the classic “Both Teams Score”. The odds are solidly estimated at around 1.55. It can be assumed that if Wagner had still been FCA coach, it would have been a bit higher. The bookmakers are pricing in the possible new coach effect here.
The best odds for Augsburg vs. Leverkusen
The odds for Augsburg against Leverkusen clearly speak for the guests, who are listed as slight favourites in the 1×2 market. According to the bookmaker’s estimate, this corresponds to a probability of victory of about 50% for Leverkusen. The Augsburg odds imply a 27 percent chance of a home win.
The Asian Handicap is +0.5 for Augsburg. This handicap means: If Augsburg does not lose, there is the full profit. So even a draw would be enough for a +0.5 selection of the underdog bettors to be successful.
The Asian goal line was set at over/under 3.0 goals. If the match finishes with exactly three goals, all bets on this line will be settled as “void” and the stake will be refunded. Four or more goals are needed for “Over” bettors, while “Under” bettors win by two or fewer goals.
Both Leverkusen and Augsburg recorded three or more goals in 75% of their games – the second-best figure in the Bundesliga, behind FC Bayern, where this was the case in all games.
In the market for “Anytime Goalscorer”, five Leverkusen players are quoted lower than Augsburg’s best-rated trio of Elias Saad, Phillip Tietz and Samuel Essende.
Since these three have only scored a single Bundesliga goal together this season, Leverkusen’s Patrick Schick could be the more reliable option. As is so often the case, Schick is the favourite in the goalscorer market, with five goals and two assists in ten Bundesliga games so far.
Augsburg vs Leverkusen Match Analysis:
Under Kasper Hjulmand, Leverkusen are consistently looking for control of the game. In eight of their ten league games, the team had more possession – and that is likely to be the case this time as well, as Augsburg have an average of only 46% possession in the Bundesliga.
Leverkusen are by no means passive with the ball and create a number of chances. The Werkself are third in the league in the xG (Expected Goals) ranking, while Augsburg have the highest xGA (Expected Goals Against) score. For the guests, there should therefore be a wealth of finishing opportunities.
Augsburg forces an average of 17.17 tackles per home game – the second-highest figure in the Bundesliga. Since Leverkusen are also keen to win the ball back quickly, many duels can be expected, which could also result in yellow cards in some cases.
Bayern, Dortmund and PSG are the only teams to have beaten Hjulmands Leverkusen so far. Augsburg do not have the offensive penetration of these clubs – for the home fans it could be a long 90 minutes.
53.57% of Leverkusen’s goals come from the game, but they are also dangerous from set-pieces. The team has already scored six set-piece goals this Bundesliga season – a weapon that could also have an effect against an opponent who positions themselves deep to stifle Leverkusen’s creativity.
Augsburg Form Check
Augsburg and coach Sandro Wagner have parted ways by mutual agreement after four defeats from the last five Bundesliga games. The team has won only two of its last eleven league games, plus one draw and eight defeats.
Augsburg were also eliminated early in the DFB Cup – with a 1-0 defeat at home to Bochum, a second-division team.
Manuel Baum will take over on an interim basis until the winter break. He already coached the club from December 2016 to April 2019. Under Sandro Wagner, FCA averaged just 0.83 points per game – the worst coaching figure in the club’s history in the Bundesliga.
With only three points from the last five games, Augsburg is slipping deeper and deeper into the relegation battle. After twelve games, they have only ten points – the weakest Bundesliga record since the 2015/16 season.
According to our forecast model, Augsburg should still manage to stay in the league and end the season with at least 35 points. Statistically, FCA should have 1.6 points more due to the expected points, but is still in 14th place in the table.
Defensively, Augsburg have already conceded 27 goals and have not picked up a single point after falling behind.
Leverkusen form check
Last weekend, Bayer Leverkusen suffered a 2-1 home defeat against Dortmund – the third Bundesliga defeat of the season and the same number as in the previous two seasons combined.
Despite slipping to fourth place, the away record remains strong: Leverkusen have lost just one of their last 39 away games in the Bundesliga (26 wins, 12 draws)
Under coach Kasper Hjulmand, Leverkusen have won three of their four away games this season.
Most recently, the team celebrated a 2-0 win over Manchester City in the Champions League, a 1-0 win against Dortmund in the DFB Cup and a 1-0 win at Benfica – Leverkusen kept a clean sheet in all three games.
With 28 Bundesliga goals, Bayer have the second-best attack in the league. According to the expected goals model (xG), however, the team should have scored 7.42 fewer goals.
This efficiency corresponds to the third-highest overperformance in the Bundesliga – behind FC Bayern (+11.98) and Eintracht Frankfurt (+9.30).
Leverkusen have created 44 big chances this season, only Bayern Munich has more with 55. Nevertheless, the Werkself scored 16 goals less than the record champions.
In total, Leverkusen have squandered seven points after taking the lead; only Augsburg (8), Wolfsburg (12) and Cologne (8) dropped more points.
