Bundesliga 4th matchday, Friday, 20.09.2024 at 20:30
The fourth matchday is just around the corner! After a week of matches, two teams that are not represented in Europe will open the new round in the Bundesliga 1 tips today. Or to put it another way: full concentration on my Augsburg Mainz tip!
Before I start my analysis, I’ll tell you that I clearly expect goals on both sides in this game. The first reason for this is obvious and focuses on the fact that the defensive lines on both sides are not in good shape.
The Augsburg-Mainz odds are dangerously close, with average odds of 2.40 to 2.80, it is clear that the bookmakers themselves do not know exactly who they should see ahead of the other.
It will definitely not be easy for me to pick a favorite here. I not only look at the current facts, but also, of course, at what the direct comparison has to offer – and these are no draws!
So my Augsburg Mainz prediction includes all the facts that should prove why nobody here goes home with a clean sheet. And of course, it is also about the question of why both are still struggling in the new season.
The betting providers’ prediction?
The favorite role of FC Augsburg is on relatively shaky legs, because the home side’s win rate is not that much lower than that of the guests. The average 2.40 shows that our bookmakers are anything but sure of themselves.
Mainz are still winless this season, despite having finished last season so successfully. If they win in Augsburg, you could get odds of 2.80 for it.
There hasn’t been a draw in almost nine years when the two have met in the Bundesliga. Should the points be shared this time, the value would jump to a classic 3.50.
KI-Prediction Augsburg vs Mainz: That’s what ChatGPT tips
To kick off the 4th matchday of the 1st Bundesliga, I took another look at ChatGPT and found out what bets the AI suggests. First up is a tip that carries a relatively high risk.
This deals with a victory for Mainz, which has exactly one goal advantage. Do I agree here? Let’s put it this way, IF the 05ers win, then it will certainly be a close game. Since they have only triumphed once in Augsburg since 2016, I think the risk is only partially manageable.
The medium risk aims to let Mainz score in both halves. Since the FCA has already conceded seven goals, this is quite possible. In addition, the carnival club has only been scored against once in an away game in Augsburg in the first half of the season.
I definitely support the AI bet, which is not quite as risky. It is the “Over 2.5 goals” bet. Both teams are not secure defensively, and nine of the last ten duels on Augsburg soil have exceeded the limit.
Analysis: Augsburg vs Mainz
It was the salvation – for the time being! FC Augsburg had not won in seven games across the seasons, losing six of them. The Fuggerstadt team then celebrated a 3-1 win against St. Pauli, so the negative streak has ended for now.
After the 4-0 loss in Heidenheim, this was exactly the right reaction, considering the 2-2 home draw against Werder Bremen on the first matchday. There is a lot to discuss at the Bavarian Swabians.
I’ll start with a negative point, and that relates to the defense. Not only that there have been seven goals conceded in the current season, a look at the past season reveals: Only three times to zero!
The Augsburg defense has not improved, and it does not matter whether it is played at home or away. But I also have something that should encourage fans, namely the fact that their club clearly prefers to play in its own stadium.
Odds analysis
I have assumed that both teams have defensive difficulties and I can well imagine that this will become apparent before half time. If Augsburg and Mainz score before half-time, the odds at Oddset are 3.70.
At the same time, I think a nice draw at half-time is very realistic. This particular type of result bet has odds of 2.18 on average.
I can also give you a little tip regarding the “right” result bet. Since there are hardly any draws between the two and Mainz are winless, I go with the triple for FC Augsburg and tend towards a 2-1 scoreline, which is rewarded with odds of 9.50.
Augsburg vs. Mainz: Will FCA be strong at home again?
Stuttgart, Bremen, Leverkusen, Bayern and Darmstadt were able to win in the WWK Arena in 2023/24. The 3-0 defeat to SVW was curious, because the defeats against the top teams were only one goal behind.
The arena may not yet be a fortress, but the fans can be sure that their team always gives their all here. Fittingly, only one home game was lost in the first half of last season.
In March against Heidenheim, they finally managed to keep a clean sheet. If it happens again, the fans can probably look forward to some goals, fairly distributed on both sides.
Will the 05ers avoid a bad start?
Mainz is an opponent that you neither particularly like nor dislike. In 2023/24, both teams won their respective home games by a narrow margin, with the last time they shared points being in October 2015.
Is there perhaps a home advantage to be recorded? Ten of 13 duels in the 1st Bundesliga were finished in the points, which sounds good. But: in 2016 and 2022, the defeats came not only in the first half of the season, but on match day three, almost identically to this round.
The fact that only twice has been played to zero against the 05ers, also makes you think. I’ll move on to the guests now, because their streak of eleven games without defeat has been broken.
They lost 1-2 to Bremen, with Mainz being caught out by a counterattack and a set-piece. They conceded three goals in a 3-3 draw against Stuttgart, and the team didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet in the season opener either, a 1-1 draw against Union Berlin.
Are memories of last year coming back? Because there was only one win here until mid-February! What’s more, Mainz only won one away game in the entire season, and that was in round 34 against Wolfsburg.
On the other hand, points were shared nine times, although, as we already know, the draw does not fit into the direct comparison against Augsburg. Among the first three away games in 2023/24 was a 1-2 defeat at the Fuggerstadt stadium.
Well, at least Mainz have only been unable to score a goal since the beginning of February 2024, but it currently seems that the offense can no longer compensate for what the defense does.
My Augsburg Mainz Tip:
Please not another false start! There is fear in Mainz that there will be no victory for months again. It is no longer possible to keep a clean sheet, even though Bremen and Union Berlin are not among the best opponents.
Admittedly, things are not going much better for FC Augsburg either. Although they finally won against St. Pauli, the problems in defense, which were already prevalent in 2023/24, just won’t go away.
So it’s a clash between two teams that don’t defend particularly well. One doesn’t win often, the other is worried about another false start. In my opinion, this means that we should bet on the following betting classic here:
Both teams to score!
