Augsburg – Mainz Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 4 on Saturday, 09/20/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
Great betting odds for an away win – and you know what? That’s exactly how I placed my Augsburg Mainz tip in a really great sports betting app.
Because between us: it’s only a matter of time before the European Cup participants from Rheinhessen secure their first Bundesliga win of the season!
Bo Henriksen’s team already had more of the game than their respective opponents on the first two matchdays. Their xG value exceeded both Cologne’s and Wolfsburg’s by 0.76.
Meanwhile, FCA looked good against the record champions, but vulnerable against the Kiezkickers – I stand by my prediction: an away win for Mainz promises fantastic odds if they succeed!
My Augsburg Mainz tip is also based on the fact that this opponent simply doesn’t seem to suit the Fuggerstadt team. FCA has not won any of its last three Bundesliga matches against Mainz (1 draw, 2 losses).
Incidentally, FCA fans only had to wait longer for a win against Mainz between March 2014 and February 2017 – back then, it was seven games (1 draw, 6 losses).
Augsburg – Mainz Prediction & Bets
Mainz have won only one of their last 12 Bundesliga games – this streak simply has to come to an end now – but they are unlikely to be spared conceding a goal again. That’s because the Fuggerstadt team make the most of their chances.
FC Augsburg has exceeded its expected goals value by 3.4 (6 goals at 2.6 xG) in this Bundesliga season, surpassed only by Munich (+5.4) in this category across the league.
Consequently, I have considered the Augsburg Mainz tip in the Bwin app for a win M05 & both teams to score as a risky bet, as it pays out an impressive odds of around 4.50 if successful.
What you need to consider when betting on Augsburg vs. Mainz
- Augsburg have conceded six Bundesliga goals so far, although their xGA of 8.73 corresponds to the most goals conceded and suggests more goals.
- Mainz have only allowed 9.84 passes per defensive action so far – only Bayern are more efficient in pressing, with the visitors applying pressure early on.
- In all three of Augsburg’s games, both teams have scored, with an average of four goals; this bet has also won in the last six home games against Mainz.
- Augsburg has had six different goalscorers in the league so far, five of them from midfield; Mert Kömür leads the xG ranking with 0.58 after three games.
Augsburg – Mainz: AI tip & odds analysis
The Bundesliga has been a real goal paradise so far this season, with an average of 3.59 goals per league game. In over 70% of the games played in Germany’s top division so far, three or more goals have been scored.
Augsburg games have been particularly eventful. An average of four goals per game have been scored in these matches, and the average xG value of 3.79 suggests that this is no coincidence.
Our digital betting friend’s Augsburg Mainz AI prediction has based its three betting suggestions for you on data and facts such as these, all of which I have given the green light due to the disproportionately high odds.
Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and over 3.5 goals depend on your respective risk appetite and promise a relatively first-class payout if successful.
The first of these three suggestions particularly appeals to me with odds of around 1.88. After all, there has not been a single Bundesliga game for Augsburg this season that has failed to break this mark.
The best odds for Augsburg vs. Mainz
Augsburg vs. Mainz – a duel that is likely to be close on the pitch and promises to spice up your betting slip.
By far the best odds are offered by NEO.bet, Interwetten, and Merkur Bets: 2.75 for a home win for the Fuggerstadt team, 3.40 for a draw, and 2.65 if Mainz finally triumphs away from home again.
What makes this game so exciting is the general balance – no team clearly dominates, every option has value. Perfect for bettors who want to fill their betting slip creatively or boldly bet on the underdog.
Augsburg vs Mainz match analysis:
On Saturday, things are likely to get rough. FC Augsburg leads the Bundesliga this season in fouls (44) and yellow cards (12).
However, when Mainz are confronted with such tough and determined opposition in midfield, they often respond by coming out of their shell and getting carried away in a lively game with lots of goals.
Precisely because of this aggressiveness on the pitch, I don’t believe Mainz will win to nil. The FSV is unlikely to be spared conceding a goal this time either.
After all, they haven’t kept a clean sheet since their 2-0 win against FC St. Pauli in February – the Rheinhessen have conceded at least one goal in 14 Bundesliga games in a row, currently the longest running streak in the league.
All in all, this points to an intense game with chances at both ends, in which Mainz fans cannot rely on a clean sheet defensively.
Augsburg form check
For Augsburg, the upcoming matchday is a real test.
Manager Sandro Wagner has to compensate for several absences: Anton Kade is out with an ankle injury, Maximilian Bauer is struggling with a knock, and Dimitrios Giannoulis is unavailable due to a thigh injury.
Nevertheless, Wagner could stick with his 3-4-2-1 system. Claude-Maurice is expected to replace Saad in attack, while Schlotterbeck returns to marshal the defense.
The combination of injury problems and adjustments to the starting lineup will be decisive in determining whether Augsburg can pick up points again – especially as the offense will have to improvise somewhat.
Mainz Form check
FSV Mainz seem to have already bottomed out, even if the latest figures still look bleak.
Mainz have won only one of their last twelve Bundesliga games – a 4-1 away win in Bochum in May – while other teams (apart from those promoted and relegated) have enjoyed more success during this period.
What’s more, in each of the last three Bundesliga seasons, Mainz have failed to win any of their first three games.
But there is hope: in the 2024/25 season, they secured their first win of the season on matchday 4 with a 3-2 victory in Augsburg. Pure coincidence?
So it’s only a matter of time before Mainz finally ends this downward trend. With the right adjustments and a stable performance, the club could be back on track for success as early as Saturday.
