Augsburg – RB Leipzig Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 8 on Saturday, 10/25/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
In the period immediately before the international break, Sandro Wagner was able to ease the pressure on himself somewhat. The FCA coach managed to pick up four points, which took some of the wind out of his critics’ sails.
However, this small upswing is not enough to dissuade me from seeking out a sports betting provider with a clear Augsburg RB Leipzig tip on the visiting team – and without any additional conditions!
After all, the “Red Bulls” have won all their games under Ole Werner so far, except for those against the top teams in the Bundesliga. A team with as many issues as Augsburg should be particularly suited to the Saxons.
Want to hear a statistic that will knock your socks off and almost force you to place an away win bet on the handy Interwetten app?
FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig have met 18 times in the Bundesliga so far – and the Fuggerstadt team has only won once, in September 2017 (1-0 at home).
Since then, FCA has gone 15 games in a row without a win against Leipzig (6 draws, 9 losses). Augsburg has not waited this long for a Bundesliga win against any other team.
Augsburg – RB Leipzig Prediction & Betting
The match will be a duel of extremes in attack: while RB Leipzig is one of the most attacking teams in the league with 111 shots on goal (only FC Bayern is better) and 20 big chances, FC Augsburg is the team that produces the least in these categories with only 80 shots and a meager eight big chances.
I am therefore quickly tempted by the betting options of a Leipzig win with HC -1 at odds of around 3.35 and a Leipzig win with Asian: HC -1.0 at odds of 2.67.
If the Saxons play as they have always managed to do under Ole Werner when the opponent was not too strong, then their significantly better style of play can quickly translate into a landslide victory.
What you need to consider when betting on Augsburg vs. RB Leipzig
- FC Augsburg is one of only two Bundesliga teams with an average of over 2.0 xGA (expected goals against) per 90 minutes (currently 2.05 xGA per game), which shows their defensive vulnerability.
- RB Leipzig’s offense needs to improve: a shot conversion rate of 9.01% and an underperformance of -2.43 xG indicate weaknesses.
- RB Leipzig’s ten goals this season are the fewest of any team in the top half of the Bundesliga table.
- Despite being 13th in the table, FC Augsburg is the second-biggest relegation candidate in the Bundesliga (only Heidenheim has lower odds).
- Christoph Baumgartner (RB Leipzig) has had 18 shots on goal this season – only four other Bundesliga players (three of them from FC Bayern) have surpassed this figure.
Augsburg – RB Leipzig: AI tip & odds analysis
Our Augsburg RB Leipzig AI prediction does not assume that the Fuggerstadt team will come away empty-handed in terms of goals. Fabian Rieder to score is the first recommendation our data model gives me in this context, with odds of around 4.33.
After all, the Augsburg player has been directly involved in a goal in each of the last three Bundesliga matchdays (1 goal, 2 assists).
The only problem I see with this goal bet is that FCA will hardly make an appearance offensively. As we all know, a team usually only plays as well as its opponent allows it to.
After their 6-0 defeat in Munich, RB Leipzig impressively stabilized their defense: in the following six Bundesliga games, the “Red Bulls” conceded only three goals (best record together with BVB) and kept a clean sheet three times.
By comparison, only VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund were more error-free during this period.
Consequently, as already mentioned, the AI does not want to rule out a goal from Augsburg, but still recommends betting on an RBL win without conceding a goal due to the extremely attractive odds of around 4.30 on the markets.
The best odds for Augsburg vs. RB Leipzig
The next test match awaits in Augsburg – but the visitors from Leipzig are traveling with a powerful tailwind.
Under coach Werner, the Saxons have started an impressive run that has taken them to a new level both in terms of play and mentality. Everything points to them continuing this momentum in Augsburg.
You can find the best odds for this at Bet-at-home and Betano, for example: 3.45 for an Augsburg win, 4.10 for a draw, and 1.95 if Leipzig simply continues its winning streak.
Augsburg vs RB Leipzig match analysis:
The performances of the Fuggerstadt team and the many areas that still need work clearly indicate that FCA’s main focus this season will be on avoiding relegation.
On the other hand, counter-pressing has been Leipzig’s trademark for years, but under Werner, their play has become a little more controlled.
Leipzig is now in the lower half of the table in terms of PPDA (passes per defensive action) – an indication of a slightly more cautious pressing game. This makes the team less vulnerable to long, direct balls behind the defense, which often proved dangerous in the past.
The picture has also changed in terms of possession: in only one of their seven Bundesliga games so far have the Saxons had more possession than their opponents. The so-called field tilt – i.e., the ratio of ball actions in the opponent’s third – is 44.34%.
Augsburg should therefore be able to mount a few offensive attacks. Nevertheless, Leipzig remain extremely dangerous up front: Werner’s team are as efficient as ever, consistently taking their chances, and should score at least two goals against a defensively vulnerable Augsburg side.
However, as Wagner’s team will also have their share of the open play, a high-scoring encounter is by no means unlikely.
Augsburg form check
Augsburg is having a difficult Bundesliga season, even if its current 13th place still looks decent on paper. According to bookmakers, FCA is still one of the top candidates for relegation – and not without reason.
The recent draw against Cologne once again revealed the team’s shaky defense: with an expected goals against (xGA) value of 14, Augsburg holds the league’s negative record.
The team has conceded at least one goal in each of its last eleven competitive games and is rarely able to compensate for this with its offense. That’s because they are also struggling up front: with only 7.4 xG and a non-penalty xG of 0.95 per 90 minutes, they simply lack punch.
Added to this is a weak possession rate of 46.9%. Although the committed performance against Wolfsburg showed signs of progress at times, consistency remains the big problem.
At least the young wild ones like Mert Kömür and Noahkai Banks give cause for hope – but without a significant improvement in both phases of the game, it is likely to remain a tough season.
RB Leipzig form check
One of the positive surprises of this season is undoubtedly RB Leipzig. With their 2-1 win over HSV last weekend, the Saxons continued their strong run and are now unbeaten in six games in a row.
Christoph Baumgartner was the match winner with his brace, confirming his improving form under Werner.
With an xG value of 12.4, Leipzig currently has the third-best offense in the Bundesliga—an impressive statistic for a team that averages only 48.6% possession.
However, converting chances remains an issue: only 27.3% of shots actually hit the target.
Despite their opening defeat to Bayern, Leipzig have since developed into serious contenders. Particularly noteworthy is their efficiency in transition, with Werner setting up his team tactically to perfection.
The fact that Leipzig is not competing in any European competitions this season could also prove to be a decisive advantage.
More recovery time, less travel fatigue – all of this gives the Red Bulls the opportunity to put sustained pressure on their rivals in the Bundesliga.
