Azerbaijan – France Tip World Cup Qualifiers, Group D, Matchday 10, 16/11/2025 at 18:00 CET
With my Azerbaijan France tip, I only asked myself the question of the amount of a French success. Anything other than a sovereign performance would be a huge surprise.
But I still don’t expect any French goal fireworks and bet on under 3.5 goals in the game with odds of 1.87 at Oddset.
In my opinion, the French will be quite merciful, because Didier Deschamps’ troops have booked their ticket for the 2026 World Cup after the 4-0 win over Ukraine on Thursday. Accordingly, Les Bleus will probably not perform with full risk.
To bet on a victory of the French, you should not use a free bet, because in view of betting odds around 1.10, the French away success does not promise a great return.
It looks completely different if you actually believe in a surprise by Azerbaijan. A home win delivers odds around 25.0, a draw is also in the double digits. Even a double chance of the hosts winning a point reaches a 6.00.
Even though the Deschamps team will certainly not break a leg, they certainly don’t want to say goodbye to the World Cup qualifiers with a disgrace. So far, France is unbeaten, only losing 2-2 in Iceland.
Azerbaijan vs. France AI Predictions:
The roles are clearly divided. An Azerbaijan victory only achieves a probability of less than four percent, a draw comes to just under 10 percent. So it looks like a French victory, the probability of it is 86%.
The absence of Kylian Mbappe does not change this, the clout of the French remains enormous. Azerbaijan have just one point after five qualifying games (2-1 against Ukraine) and are in last place in the table.
In a head-to-head comparison, the Azeris have not even managed to score a single goal against France in the last three meetings, but have conceded 15 goals.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Azerbaijan |
Draw |
Victory France |
| 3.7% |
10% |
86.3% |
Our AI tool sees a relatively low risk in the bet “France wins to nil”. The odds for this tip are around 1.65.
With my Azerbaijan France tip, I come to the conclusion that there will be no goal festival, especially since Mbappe will be out. Azerbaijan lack the offensive means, France will not go to work with full commitment.
Three goals like in the home game in October are the maximum for me. My Azerbaijan France bet is: Under 3.5 goals in the match.
What you need to know about Azerbaijan vs. France betting
- France qualified for the 2026 World Cup with a clear 4-0 win over Ukraine on Thursday, while Azerbaijan has had no chance for some time.
- While Azerbaijan are still without a win in World Cup qualifying Group D (D1 L4), France have not lost a game (W4 D1).
- The weakest offense (2 goals) meets the best (13 goals). Azerbaijan have conceded the most goals (13), the French the fewest (3).
- France have never lost to Azerbaijan (3 games, three wins), have not conceded a single goal and scored 15 goals.
- Azerbaijan have not won a competitive match for two years (10 defeats, 2 draws)
