Europa Conference League, Playoff round, Thursday, 2/13/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
This duel could be a close one in the Conference League playoffs! FK Borac will face NK Olimpija. The bookmakers expect the team from Slovenia to prevail over the two games.
First of all, Borac has the chance to score at home. However, really turbulent matches are not on the agenda for the teams in the Conference League.
In my Banja Luka Ljubljana betting tip, I expect that we will see a maximum of three goals and that the hosts will at least draw! At NEO.bet we can conveniently combine the odds.
The new league system particularly benefits smaller teams, which, if lucky, get more manageable tasks and, with 24 of 36 teams progressing, two-thirds of all teams now reach the knockout round. In the group stage, only half progressed. The rest were filled with teams from the Europa League.
Relegation in the winter is no longer possible in the new model, which I welcome and gives teams that are not in the spotlight all that often the chance to do well internationally with a few good matches.
The betting providers’ forecast
There is no real favorite for the first leg when I look at the odds of the German betting providers. Ljubljana is only marginally ahead at 2.42, with a draw (3.05) considered the second most likely outcome, ahead of a home win (3.10).
The home field advantage and the fact that Olimpija would be well positioned for the second leg at home with a draw clearly steers me towards the “double chance 1X”, which at 1.56 is very interesting.
KI-Prognose Banja Luka vs. Ljubljana: That’s what ChatGPT tips.
The AI partly agrees with my assessment. We asked ChatGPT for three odds at different risk levels. She also expects the game to be even at the start and around 1-1 at halftime.
Therefore, she sees little risk in the draw tip at half-time, which is scratching at the 2.00 mark. Given that Borac has gone into the locker room with a draw in five of his last six games after 45 minutes, not a bad consideration.
The odds for the “medium risk” are a tad higher. The goal of both teams has been selected here. I’m not the biggest fan of this tip, in first legs, even after the abolition of the away goals rule, it often starts gently.
In addition, Borac and Olimpija are good defensively. We get a 4.55 with the third AI recommendation: away win plus “over 2.5 goals”. For the reasons mentioned, I’m not a big fan of this bet either.
I have on the radar that the Slovenian capital city team have recently won 5-0 and 2-1 in the league.
Analysis: Banja Luka vs. Ljubljana
Banja Luka against Ljubljana, there actually has been a previous clash! In 2019, albeit only in a friendly. Back then, the Slovenians managed a 3-2 victory. That it would be so intense in the penalty areas in such a crucial first leg?
I can’t imagine that, and neither can the oddsmakers. We are getting odds of around 1.50 for over 1.5 goals. We don’t even get that in the Bundesliga for over 2.5 goals.
We are talking about odds of 2.50 if there are to be at least three goals, and 4.55 for at least four goals. The latter odds appeal to me again because of the amount, at least if I had a free bet ready.
By the way, an 11 euro free bet is currently waiting for new and existing customers at Interwetten. You get it on the occasion of the Ski World Cup, but you can use it in all sports. Alternatively, the freebet would be a suitable hedge for those who take my final tip!
Odds Analysis
The winter break lasted longer in Bosnia and Slovenia. While Ljubljana has only played two competitive games in the league, winning both and benefiting from a total of three red cards, Borac only played again at the weekend.
In doing so, the FK clearly lived up to its role as favorite in the cup with a 3-0 win. Mladen Zizovic’s team has warmed up in test matches, losing only once in five games, winning three.
This makes a total of seven unbeaten matches in the last eight matches across the year, which once again confirms my “double chance 1X”. What’s more, Banja Luka is the best home team in the country and has not lost any of its three Conference League games.
Banja Luka vs. Ljubljana Odds: Few goals in the league phase
For Banja Luka, it was almost enough for the Europa League. It was only in a penalty shootout against Ferencvaros in the qualifiers that the team lost out and thus slipped into the league phase of the third-tier international competition.
At home, they managed a 1-1 draw against Panathinaikos, a 2-1 win against LASK and another draw against Omonia Nikosia. In total, we saw just eleven goals in six games, which means they shared the title for the team with the fewest goals.
Ljubljana didn’t score much more with 13 goals. Their defensive stability was confirmed in the Conference League and definitely speaks in favor of an under bet on Thursday.
Defensive values almost at Chelsea level!
And offensively, we didn’t see much. The teams are ranked low in the Conference League table, which measures the number of chances, with 70 and 56 created opportunities.
They are also close in the opposite statistic, how many opportunities they have allowed, good values.
Chelsea saw almost as many balls fly towards their own goal as FK and NK.
And what odds have you picked out for yourselves in advance? At Winamax, I always get a good insight into what the betting community is betting on. Each market shows in percentage terms how often which selection has been played.
In terms of 1X2, it is very balanced. Ljubljana (44 percent) is currently (February 11) just ahead. 39 percent have opted for the home win.
There is a clearer opinion in the market as to whether a goal will be scored for both teams. Here, 87 percent have opted for “Yes”.
In terms of double chance options, the X2 is in demand. I take a different view. Winamax not only gives you an insight into the bets that have been placed, but also stands out with strong odds boost promotions.
My Banja Luka Ljubljana tip:
I expect a very close match between Banja Luka and Ljubljana, in which the hosts definitely need the win more. Due to the alternating home rights, the guests could live with the draw more.
First and foremost, I have an inoffensive, midfield-heavy game on my screen, in which scenes in the penalty area and dangerous finishes are likely to be few and far between. After all, it is a duel between two so far dull attacks and secure acting defenses.
My Banja Luka Ljubljana prediction: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals!
