Copa del Rey, semi-final first leg, Tuesday, 25.02.2025 at 21:30
Both clubs have a lot in common. They can both still win the treble! But that will change after this semi-final stage of the Copa del Rey, which consists of a first and second leg.
Precisely because the additional second leg changes the dynamics of this knockout phase, a tactician like Diego Simeone might prefer to focus on the home game in just over a month’s time.
According to my Barcelona Atletico Madrid betting tip, a defensive-minded style of play from the visitors on Tuesday would definitely favor a low-scoring finish.
The first clash will take place on February 26, while the second clash in the Spanish capital will take place on April 2.
The last time the “Blaugrana” and Atletico met was in the 2017 cup semi-final. On that occasion, the Catalans prevailed 3:2 on aggregate and gave Simeone’s men no chance of reaching the final.
Incidentally, the draw has also left open the possibility of an epic “Clásico final” between Barcelona and Real Madrid – something that hasn’t happened for over a decade.
But it’s not that far yet! The first thing that needs to be clarified is whether the “Colchoneros” can prevent this dream final of the Spanish King’s Cup.
Both opponents have not only paved their way to the semi-finals, they have literally blown them open. The Catalans, for example, dispatched Valencia 5:0 and swept Betis Sevilla off the pitch 5:1.
Diego Simeone’s team were similarly dominant, overrunning Elche 4-0 and Getafe 5-0. However, these were not absolute top opponents, which is why the cup history to date is of little significance for a well-founded Barcelona Atlético Madrid prediction.
Much more interesting than the previous tournament history of both teams is the last direct duel two months ago, when Atlético triumphed 2:1 away in Barcelona.
Incidentally, it is precisely when the capital city team are treated as underdogs by the betting providers with PayPal – as is the case in this match – that they are at their most dangerous.
Just think of their 1:1 draw against Real Madrid a few weeks ago in La Liga or their surprising 2:1 win against a strong Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, in both games Atletico were considered the underdogs.
With the home side favored by the bookmakers, a bet on the visitors would therefore be much more interesting with away win odds of around 4.10 – even if risk-averse sports betting fans would probably prefer a safer “double chance X2” bet.
The “Blaugrana” have stabilized under Hansi Flick since the New Year and have yet to lose a competitive game at home in 2025, but their most recent 2-0 win over Las Palmas in La Liga was anything but a firework display offensively.
Against a well-organized defence like Atlético’s, FCB could therefore stumble again. In the past, Barça have repeatedly had problems with deep-lying, compact defending opponents – and that is exactly what Simeone’s eleven have mastered.
It remains to be seen whether the Catalans will still come out on top or whether Atlético can upset the favorites again – but it will definitely be a tactical game!
Since this is a second leg, I expect the “Rojiblancos” to focus on the home game – ripped off as they are.
Consequently, I expect a defensive-minded performance from Simeone’s side at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys – and if they get stuck in at the back, even the strongest offense can go a whole game without scoring.
You can always rely on a clean sheet from the Catalans anyway, as they have only conceded a single goal in their last 450 competitive minutes.
A 0-0 result bet at half-time at odds of around 3.60 – preferably in combination with the Betano promo code – is therefore another interesting offer for me.
At least until the half-time break, both sides could actually almost completely neutralize each other.
With a view to the Barcelona Atletico Madrid odds and offers that concern both semi-final games, I would also consider a promotion bet of the “Rojiblancos” at around 2.10.
Especially if Barca can’t win the first leg, the odds are extremely good that Simeone’s team will be able to punch their ticket to the final after the second leg.
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Conclusion: Given the busy schedule, the first leg between Barça and Atlético could be tactical without much spectacle.
The “Rojiblancos” in particular are likely to focus on a compact defense, which should make it difficult for the Catalans to find gaps.
When Simeone’s team relies on their defense, even the best offensive lines often bite their teeth out. I therefore expect a rather low-scoring game in which fewer than 3.5 goals are scored.
Atlético will be keen to keep the score close in order to have every opportunity in the second leg. Barça, on the other hand, are also likely to take a measured approach and not take any unnecessary risks to avoid running into counterattacks.
My tip: Under 3.5 goals
