Champions League, Wednesday, 10/23/2024 at 9:00 p.m.
FCB against FCB. On the third matchday of the Champions League preliminary round, FC Barcelona and FC Bayern will face off in a real highlight duel.
My Barcelona Bayern tip is not so much about the glorious past of these two traditional clubs, but rather about the sporting explosiveness in the here and now.
Because one thing is clear: both Barca and Bayern have already suffered defeats in the premier class and would fall behind in the fight for the top eight places if they were to suffer another defeat. In short, three very important points are at stake.
In the course of my Barcelona v Bayern prediction, I will cite numerous arguments and statistics that make my tip pendulum swing more in the direction of the Bundesliga club.
Accordingly, I feel well positioned with my “double chance X2” bet, although I will of course show you further sensible tip alternatives.
The fact that Hansi Flick and Robert Lewandowski, two former Munich players, are eager to put their former club in its place, adds another dimension to the game that needs to be taken into account.
This inevitably brings the comparison “Lewa vs. Kane” to the fore, which can easily be converted into lucrative goal bets.
But first of all, I take a look at the classic 1×2 odds of the major betting providers.
The bookmakers’ prediction
There aren’t many teams in the world these days that Bayern Munich play against as outsiders (even away).
However, FC Barcelona in its current form is one of them. As a result, the German FCB has to settle for a win rate of 2.75.
A win for the Catalans is rated as slightly more likely at around 2.30. The draw is listed at around 3.80 and, given the starting position, does not offer any anomalies.
As you can see, the Barcelona Bayern odds don’t offer a sure thing in this case. But if I had to choose a simple three-way bet, I would go for the draw. Tellingly, I can imagine anything from a 0-0 to a 3-3.
ChatGPT usually also has a great “imagination” when it comes to sports betting. However, our three-part Barcelona Bayern AI prediction is – in my opinion – ambivalent.
As a high-risk tip, the AI throws the draw bet into the ring. On the one hand, this is unspectacular, but on the other hand, it is also understandable.
After all, I can also go along with a draw. And I didn’t even need a cellar full of Nvidia GPUs for this idea.
Of course, I have to veto the medium-risk tip. Here, ChatGPT recommends the bet “Barcelona to win (draw no bet).”
Since I basically assume that Bayern will not lose the game, I cannot agree in this case.
The low-risk tip is: “Both teams score”. Ultimately, I agree with that. However, a “strange” 0-0 would not completely surprise me. The low odds therefore only offer me limited incentive.
Analysis: Barcelona vs Bayern
Is FC Barcelona a contender for the Champions League this season? Honestly, I’m skeptical. The Catalans are at the top of the Primera División and have won nine of their first ten games.
However, the defeats in the league against Osasuna and in the Champions League against Monaco did not come out of the blue in my opinion. One fact: In the league, Barca have not yet played against Atletico or Real Madrid.
And in the Champions League, the games against Monaco and Young Boys Bern were actually a tough opening program. So the game against Bayern is the first real test for the Flick system.
If Barca concedes at least two goals against the Bundesliga side, a solid odds of around 1.80 is due – definitely worth considering.
The 4-0 win over VfB Stuttgart last Bundesliga match day was a real show of strength by the Munich team.
Last season, they had to let the Swabians take the lead in the table, but this season they are once again the top contenders for the championship. And I don’t trust FCB in the Champions League either.
The 0-1 defeat against Aston Villa was rather unfortunate and must be noted under the motto “growing pains” under new coach Vincent Kompany.
Therefore, the bet “Bayern win & both teams score” comes to mind as an alternative for the game against Barca. Our betting providers are offering great odds of around 3.65 for this.
Odds Analysis
Top bookmakers like Happybet Sportwetten expect an above-average number of goals between FC Barcelona and FC Bayern.
A game with over 2.5 goals only just makes it to odds of 1.40. The counter-bet “Under 2.5 goals” is around 3.10, which is not often seen.
At the same time, the betting providers expect the game to be fairly even. The low odds of around 1.30 for the classic “both teams to score” speak volumes. In terms of the result bets, a 1:1 draw stands out.
This is called up with odds of 9.25 and is therefore the most likely result from the bookmakers’ point of view.
Kane or Lewandowski?
If you are wondering who will score goals on Wednesday, then Mr. Lewandowski and Mr. Kane inevitably have to be mentioned.
Interesting: Oddset Germany sees Lewandowski as having a slight advantage over Kane. The odds for a Lewandowski goal are around 1.90.
If, on the other hand, Harry Kane scores at least one goal, you can get odds above 2.00.
A side note: Bayern’s top striker is currently top of the CL scoring charts with four goals. Lewandowski has scored twice so far in the current competition.
Barca record from the ghost train!
The direct comparison is indeed remarkable. FC Barcelona have only won two of 15 duels with Bayern.
From this point of view, the “double chance X2” bet makes sense.
The last time the two teams met was in the 2022/23 Champions League season. Bayern won both matches in the preliminary round (2:0, 3:0).
If you now add the two games from the 2021/22 season, Bayern have won the last four CL duels with Barcelona without conceding a goal.
Overall, the Bundesliga club has won the last six meetings.
FC Barcelona’s last win up to this point dates back to the 2014/15 season. Back then, the Catalans won 3-0 in the semi-final first leg.
The home record of the Spaniards against Bayern is nothing short of devastating. In seven home games against the southern Germans, Barca left the pitch as losers five times.
The 8-2 thrashing in the 2019/20 ‘corona season’ is also unforgettable, when Barca suffered one of the darkest hours in their European Cup history in the quarter-finals.
Another pointer: in the 15 previous duels, Barca was only able to score a total of 16 goals. If the Catalans score less than 1.5 goals on Wednesday, strong odds of 2.15 beckon.
My Barcelona Bayern Tip:
There’s no question about it: at the European Cup level, FC Barcelona is one of FC Bayern’s favorite opponents.
Since I generally don’t trust the Catalan team this season, a dominant performance by the Bundesliga club would truly come as no surprise to me.
Harry Kane made a strong comeback against Stuttgart and is ready for the goal-scoring duel with Robert Lewandowski.
I don’t see Kane (and Bayern) coming off second-best at the end. Accordingly, my Barcelona Bayern tip is: FC Bayern won’t lose.
