Champions League, Tuesday, 09.04.2025 at 21:00
So you meet again after the Catalans’ 3-2 victory in the league phase?! But this time in sunny Barcelona.
A real treat awaits you in the Champions League quarter-final first leg. The sports betting providers with PayPal are clearly positioning themselves on the side of the hosts!
Their Barcelona Dortmund odds speak for themselves in favor of the “Blaugrana”. Hardly anyone believes that BVB has a real chance of success.
But: as we all know, the ball is round, and Borussia has often proven that it can be extremely dangerous as an underdog.
My Barcelona Dortmund betting tip takes a closer look at the numbers for you and provides valuable information that you can use to place your bets strategically.
At first glance, there is really little to contradict the bookmakers’ optimism when it comes to a home win for Barcelona. And the statistics pretty much back this up!
Barcelona have not been beaten in any of their five previous meetings with Borussia Dortmund (3 wins, 2 draws).
Incidentally, Barça have played more games in Europe without losing only against Lyon (8 games), Napoli (6) and Werder Bremen (6).
This shows that Dortmund are not only facing a strong opponent, but also a lot of negative history.
But could it be that their latest away win in the Bundesliga against Freiburg has instilled new self-confidence in them?
The bookmakers’ prediction
The Barcelona Dortmund odds look overwhelmingly one-sided: 1.38 for the Catalans, while a BVB win is valued at a whopping 7.00. Even a draw is in the rather unlikely zone at 5.00.
The bookmakers leave little doubt that Barça will prevail in the first leg. Even in earlier duels, there was rarely such a clear balance of power.
Those of you who still support the black and yellows will get a fat reward if they win – but whether that will really happen is another matter altogether.
AI prediction Barcelona vs. Dortmund: That’s what ChatGPT tips
The Barcelona Dortmund AI prediction from ChatGPT has some exciting advice to sweeten our entertaining Champions League evening with one or two successful football bets.
For example, “Barcelona win with handicap -3” is suggested at 5.90 for the high risk. Personally, I would stay away from this bet – the risk is too high, because, as we know, the dead live longer, and BVB in particular is always good for a surprise comeback.
On the other hand, for medium risk, ChatGPT’s tip is “Half time/final score 1/1” at around 1.75. I like that better. If Barça dictate the game from the start, this scenario is absolutely realistic – go for it.
For the low risk, the AI assistant finally recommends “Both teams score” at 1.60. I rate this as a very solid suggestion. After all, BVB even scored two goals in the previous round game between the two teams, so why not this time?
Analysis: Barcelona vs Dortmund
Did you see how Dortmund crushed Freiburg 4-1 last weekend? That’s why I don’t think BVB will go down in sunny Catalonia on Wednesday with all their might.
I’m not a fan of the new coach, but his work seems to be bearing more and more fruit. Meanwhile, Barcelona played 1-1 against Real Betis Sevilla on Saturday – another setback in the race for the championship!
It’s a good thing that their immediate pursuer, Real Madrid, failed to pick up any points at all against Valencia on the 30th La Liga match day, thus keeping the Catalans’ lead in the table stable (1:2).
One player that BVB will have to watch out for on Wednesday is Raphinha.
The Brazilian whirlwind has had a sensational Champions League season so far and currently seems to be a built-in goal guarantee.
Just think: in just ten appearances, Raphinha has been directly involved in an incredible 16 goals – scoring eleven and setting up five. That puts him in historic territory.
Is Raphinha the new Messi? In fact, there was only one player at Barcelona who was even more directly involved in goals in a single CL season – Lionel Messi.
Odds Analysis
“Yamal scores” at 2.20 – the youngster should be highly motivated! After all, in his last European appearance, he became the youngest player to score and make an assist in a Champions League game (17 years, 241 days).
What’s more, only Rafael Leão has made more dribbles (39) than he has (33) this season – the boy is extremely dangerous!
“Barça win & over 2.5 goals” at 1.75 – another real bargain! The conditions for this accumulator bet are simply ideal, because no team scores more goals per UCL game under Hansi Flick (3.2 on average!). An offensive gala is definitely on the cards.
Hansi Flick – the BVB nightmare incarnate!
Hansi Flick is about the worst thing that can happen to Dortmund on the sidelines – a walking nightmare in a suit. Hardly any other coach sees through the “black and yellow” game plan as effortlessly as he does.
Flick has faced BVB six times so far with his teams – whether Bayern or now Barcelona. Six times he left the pitch as the winner. It doesn’t get any better than that.
And the frightening thing about it is that his teams scored an average of three goals per game, a total of 18 goals in six matches. In five of these six games, his team even scored at least three goals – a real statement.
This is more than just a small series. It’s a psychological advantage that should not be underestimated. When Flick is on the bench, BVB seems to lose its identity. Whether tactically, mentally or physically, his teams always seem to be one step ahead of BVB.
Dortmund: In Spain mostly weak, but…
Spain and Borussia Dortmund – it’s still a difficult relationship. In 20 away matches against Spanish teams in European competitions, BVB have only won three times, with five draws and a whopping twelve defeats.
The record is even more sobering when you look only at the knockout games: in ten such games, Dortmund has only won once – that was in 2021, when they beat Sevilla 3-2.
Not really a foundation on which to build hopes of advancing against FC Barcelona.
And yet, in the recent Champions League past, BVB has given itself a new look. Of the last eight games in the knockout phase, only one was lost – the final against Real Madrid.
Noteworthy: Dortmund have won their last three away games in the knockout phase. That’s more than in the 17 games before that (4 draws, 11 defeats).
Therefore, I stick to the fact that BVB will not go down with the team on Wednesday.
My Barcelona Dortmund tip:
I have the uneasy feeling that the bookies will be a little disappointed in the end because their predictions did not fully materialize.
I can also easily imagine a 3-2 or 3-1 for Barcelona – all results that do not imply a declassification of Borussia, which has gained a lot of self-confidence against Freiburg at the weekend anyway.
Therefore, my Barcelona Dortmund prediction is: Double chance 1X & Over 3.5 goals.
