Copa del Rey, Final, Saturday, 26.04.2025 at 22:00
It’s the eternal duel, the Clasico, the match that cannot be lost under any circumstances. The Copa del Rey is getting the final everyone wanted! Real Madrid will face FC Barcelona at the Olympic Stadium in Seville on Saturday evening.
Neither team has home advantage, and there are no league points at stake – it’s the one game that decides the winner and the loser. FC Barcelona are the favorites, having already beaten Real Madrid twice this season – and by clear margins.
Accordingly, I also assume that Hansi Flick’s men will win the title. FCB impresses with a consistency that the Royals cannot currently match. But IF there is one game where everything can be turned on its head, then it is this one.
Of course, it’s never easy to analyze a game like this correctly. It’s not just about the win or the title, but also about a hell of a lot of prestige. Three defeats in three competitions? Real certainly don’t want that on their record.
Their rivals from Catalonia are better in the Champions League and ahead in the league. In the Copa del Rey, the proud Madrilenians now have their last chance to teach Barca a lesson in 2024/25.
The bookmakers’ predictions?
Our German bookmakers are offering average odds of 3.10 for a Real Madrid win at the weekend, while the odds for FC Barcelona are 2.15.
At the same time, you can of course also bet on who will win the cup, no matter how. Here too, Barca is naturally in the lead, with odds of 1.60 to 2.20 – so the lead is now a little smaller.
A draw would take us into extra time – a nice 4-4, for example, would be something, wouldn’t it? The odds of 3.80 are not particularly out of balance. However, both teams have only failed to produce a winner once since 2019.
Analysis: Real Madrid vs Barcelona
It’s Real Madrid vs. FC Barcelona, who else! For the first time since 2014, the two Spanish giants are back in the Copa del Rey final. Eleven years ago, the title went to the White Ballet with a 2-1 win.
Since then, they have only met again in the cup in 2023 – after a 1-0 win in the first leg, Barca blew their chance to reach the final with a 4-1 defeat in the second leg. The history between these two clubs is full of highlights.
4-0 in the league, 5-2 in the Supercopa, after four consecutive defeats, the Spanish FCB has clearly redeemed itself this season. In any case, it seems as if it is the club in the more stable form.
They are four points clear at the top of the league and are getting the results they need. They have reached the semi-finals of the Champions League, while Real were knocked out by Arsenal (0-3 and 1-2).
Odds analysis
As there have been hardly any draws in the Clasico in recent years, I’m going for a Barcelona win in the 1×2 bet – they are simply in better form, while Real are struggling a bit.
The last four direct encounters alone have produced 21 goals, with both sides boasting some of the most talented attackers in Europe. Accordingly, I see good chances for “over 3.5 goals,” which leads to odds of 2.27.
And if I had to place a result bet, I would go all in on a 3-2 win for Barcelona. The Catalans have scored seven goals against Real this season, so it could well be another spectacular encounter.
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: Form? That speaks for Barca!
Barca prevailed against Atletico Madrid in the Copa semi-final. After a turbulent 4-0 win in the first leg, the second leg was much more civilized, ending 1-0. Previously, there were wins against Valencia (5-0), Betis Sevilla (5-1), and Barbastro (4-0).
It may be a case of “luxury problems,” but the recent victories in the Primera Division were quite narrow. 1-0 against Mallorca, 4-3 against Celta Vigo and 1-0 against Leganes – surely no one is showing nerves?
Hansi Flick’s team will of course have to pace themselves, as they face Inter Milan at home in the Champions League immediately after the cup final.
It’s pretty unfortunate that Robert Lewandowski, their best striker, is out with an injury. Muscle problems will force him to watch from the sidelines, with a comeback only possible at the beginning of May.
The fact that Barcelona has won five of the last six Copa finals naturally gives hope for a triumph on Saturday. In 2019, they lost to Valencia, which was a big surprise.
So Barca has the whole package, but I can’t really say the same for Madrid. Their exit from the Champions League was painful, and they are also trailing in the league.
League wins by a clear margin? Not the order of the day anymore. Most recently, they scraped a 1-0 win against Getafe. Did they stumble their way into this Copa final or do they deserve to be there? Real definitely had luck on their side, and not just once.
After the opening game against Minera (5-0), they progressed against Celta Vigo, only breaking the deadlock in extra time. They cleared the Leganes hurdle, but there was little cause for celebration in the 3-2 win.
Finally, Real Sociedad awaited in the semi-finals. After a 1-0 win in the first leg, the second leg was a 4-4 spectacle. Narrow victories, too many goals conceded, two lucky extra times – there are more confident ways to do it.
Slowly but surely, it’s becoming clear why Los Blancos have only won the Copa once since 2014 and haven’t reached the final since. It could also be significant that they have won only three of their last eight finals – two of those against Barça.
My Real Madrid – Barcelona prediction:
Real Madrid or Barcelona, who will win the Spanish Cup this year? The better form is definitely in Catalonia. The Royals are currently making a lot of mistakes, regardless of the competition.
On the other hand, there is a team waiting that is in excellent shape in both the league and the Champions League. Barca also has the better statistics in the Copa del Rey, having reached the final and won the title much more often in recent years.
Ultimately, I expect a wild but close game. However, as Barcelona is the stronger team in all respects, my prediction is:
Barca will win the Copa del Rey!
