Copa Sudamericana 2024, Wednesday, 17.07.2024
In the Copa Sudamericana, the knockout phase begins in a similar way to here in Europe. The third-placed teams from the higher-ranked Libertadores enter this competition and then face the respective runners-up in the play-off round.
The focus of my Barcelona SC Bragantino prediction for this Ecuadorian-Brazilian duel is a low-scoring draw bet. If necessary, I will put this to the test by using an odds boost with my trusted bookmaker
An interesting match awaits you next Wednesday, which could hardly be closer. In fact, I rate the possibility of a draw as above average.
The best sports betting apps seem to agree with my opinion without thinking twice, as the Barcelona SC Bragantino odds of the operating bookmakers behind them show this possibility with values of around 3.00.
One thing in Barcelona SC’s favor is the fact that they have just been relegated from the higher Copa Libertadores, even though they never had a chance of promotion, trailing Sao Paulo and Talleres by seven points each.
Bragantino advanced from the group stage of the Copa Sudamericana, but finished second in their group behind Argentinian first division side Racing Club.
It is generally difficult to determine how the season will develop for the Brazilians. They are currently in ninth place in Serie A after 16 match days with a completely even record of 4 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats.
What ultimately put me off the “double chance X2” betting option was their horrendous away record. Bragantino have not been able to win away from home for five competitive games in a row (1 draw, 4 defeats)
The current form curve may appear to favor Barcelona SC at first glance, but I’ve taken a closer look at their record of 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat since mid-May for good reason.
Three of the victories came against mostly weaker Ecuadorian league rivals, while another came against the completely overstretched Copa Libertadores underdogs Cobresal from Chile (2:1).
The previous group game against Sao Paulo on May 17 ended in a draw, indirectly confirming the suspicions I raised in my Barcelona SC Bragantino betting tip
And the last competitive game so far? That ended surprisingly with a 1-0 defeat against Mushuc Runa, which also cost Barcelona SC the Apertura. On this last matchday, Independiente del Valle managed to overtake them in the battle for first place in the final straight.
It should also be of interest to note that more than a month has passed since that last league outing on June 3, during which the South American version of the Blaugrana have been inactive.
You should know that there are several months between the end of the Apertura and the start of the Clausura. The fact that the second half of the season in Ecuador does not start until the beginning of August therefore gives Bragantino a certain advantage in terms of competitive toughness
The home side’s best attacker is undoubtedly Fydriszewski, who is one of Barcelona SC’s best strikers with nine goals in domestic league competition.
Nevertheless, I don’t think BSC will have the upper hand in a sold-out home stadium or even get a significant number of shots on goal.
I therefore count a 0:0, 1:1 and possibly even a 0:1 for Bragantino as the most promising result bets in this first leg of the round of 16. However, you can also take action to place a tip that reduces the risk
With an under-2.5-goal bet you would be on the safe side and at the same time you could still count on interesting Barcelona SC Bragantino odds of around 1.55.
For my part, however, I’m using the currently valid Betano promo code to deliberately take a slightly bigger gamble.
I am aiming for a 0:0 or 1:1 and formulate this in my Barcelona SC Bragantino betting tip with the selection: Under 2.5 goals & draw. Of course, this requires a little bit of luck, but the potential win multiplier of around 3.5x definitely appeals to me!
Since both clubs will face each other for the first time on Wednesday, there is a lack of data on head-to-head meetings that could help us.
I rate São Paulo as stronger than both teams, but the fact that Barcelona SC failed to beat them in either the first leg (0-2) or the second leg (0-0) of the group stage doesn’t exactly speak in their favor.
However, it should also be mentioned at this point that Bragantino themselves lost 2-0 to São Paulo in Serie A just under a week ago
Conclusion: This match seems almost doomed to a draw. There are hardly any good reasons to bet on one side winning or the other.
I attach most importance to the fact that the Ecuadorians have not played a competitive game for 40 days, which is why I would lean slightly more towards Bragantino on balance.
Primarily, however, my Barcelona SC Bragantino betting tip is based on exactly two results, as I don’t think there is much room for other outcomes besides a 0-0 or 1-1 draw
My tip: Draw & Under 2.5 goals
