Champions League, Tuesday, 01.10.2024 at 21:00
The Catalans have suffered two mishaps in recent weeks, one of them in the top flight. The Blaugrana were beaten 2-1 at Monaco.
The second slip-up was suffered by Hansi Flick’s players last weekend. Also away from home, the Spanish league leaders lost 4-2 to Osasuna.
I’m not expecting another slip-up in my Barcelona Young Boys betting tip, as the home side’s other performances have been too impressive for that.
Barca are shooting their opponents off the pitch in La Liga this season, scoring a sensational 25 goals in just eight league games.
Bern, on the other hand, have been in a disastrous state so far. The result: second-last place in the Swiss Super League.
Accordingly, I am confident in my Barcelona Young Boys betting tip: With odds of 1.70 at Tipwin for “Barcelona to win without conceding a goal”, I am on the right track.
The bookmaker forecast
The odds make it clear how big the Catalans’ role as favorites really is in this game. Barca only have odds of 1.10 to win.
Even a draw would be in the double digits without any odds boost and land at 11.2.
A win for the team from Bern would be a minor sensation and would not only have double-digit odds, but would even exceed the 20 mark.
KI prediction Barcelona vs Young Boys: ChatGPT
The recommended artificial intelligence bets match my line of thought in this case, which is hardly surprising given the clear starting position.
If you want to keep the risk for a Barcelona Young Boys tip low, Chat GPT recommends the “Over 3.5 goals” variant in the game, which will land you under the 1.70 limit.
Of course, the second variant that Chat GPT has worked out in its forecast is interesting. Just like me in my Barcelona Young Boys tip, the AI advises a bet on “Barcelona win without conceding a goal”.
If you want to go the whole hog and love risk, then the last version spit out might be more to your liking. “Barcelona win 4-0” has odds of 7.30 at Sunmaker, but would be too speculative in my eyes.
Analysis: Barcelona vs Young Boys
The start to the season could hardly have been more different at national level for the two participants in this encounter.
Under the guidance of new coach Hansi Flick, Barca enchanted their own supporters and rode the back of top scorer Robert Lewandowski (7 goals) to the top of the table (21 points).
The visitors from Bern, on the other hand, cannot believe their eyes when they look at the table. They have made the perfect example of a false start and are stuck at the bottom of the Swiss Super League table with just six points from eight games.
The results on the first matchday of the top flight were somewhat more similar. However, there is a simple explanation for the Blaugrana’s 2-1 defeat against Monaco: Barca were outnumbered from the tenth minute of the game.
YB, on the other hand, were beaten 3-0 by Aston Villa at their own stadium and did not have the slightest chance of victory during the match (0.59:2.04 xG).
It’s hard to believe that this team won the Swiss championship last season.
Quotenanalyse
The Black & Yellows’ 4:1 away win against Winterthur on matchday seven was nothing more than a brief flash in the pan.
On the last matchday, YB again lost 1-0 to Grasshoppers from Zurich to make up for their miserable start to the season.
Accordingly, there is not much to criticize about the clear distribution of roles and the low odds for relatively many goals in this pairing. You should tend to reach for the handicap betting shelf as a suitable betting alternative.
Barcelona vs Young Boys odds: Fears of the next low point
The free fall for Young Boys continues almost unabated this season. The reigning Swiss champions have won just one of their nine competitive matches to date (excluding the CL qualifiers).
Otherwise, the visitors have dropped points at every possible stage, making last year’s championship look like a fairytale.
The Black & Yellows’ European portfolio does not offer much hope either.
Young Boys have gone just one Champions League game out of 19 without conceding a goal and have conceded at least three goals in nine encounters.
Scary omens
Since the start of pre-season, the visitors have allowed 20 or more opposition shots in five of seven Champions League games.
The upcoming pairing with FC Barcelona could be another nail-biter in that direction.
Barca have collected 19.76 expected goals in eight league games (1st), have scored the most goals in the Spanish Primera Division (25) and have a player in their line-up in Robert Lewandowski who alone has scored 8.00 expected goals in seven league appearances.
For the second-weakest defense in the Swiss Super League (16 goals conceded in 8 games), the enormous attacking power of the home side will be far too much.
The Blaugrana will be given an additional boost by the following statistics: Barca have only lost their first home game in one of the last 28 CL seasons (25 wins, 2 draws).
For me, the main question in this game is how big a Barca win would be. I was therefore surprised that the Catalans have scored fewer goals in their previous league games at home (10) than away (15).
At home, however, the defense (1 goal conceded) has been much stronger than in the away appearances (8). This is of course good news for my Barcelona Young Boys betting tip.
Even the absence of Marc-André ter Stegen doesn’t worry me in any way, as the captain was missing in the last home game against Getafe and the Flick team still won 1-0.
It’s also reassuring that the Catalans have no problems defending against opposition set-pieces.
No other team in La Liga has conceded fewer expected goals from set-pieces than the league leaders (0.6 xGA).
My Barcelona Young Boys tip:
Barcelona have conceded two goals in their last four competitive games, but are otherwise having an excellent season.
The visitors are still struggling with their disastrous results and the relegation battle in the Super League after winning the championship last season.
Sooner or later, Barca will find a way to take the lead, while the Black & Yellows will be too preoccupied with themselves to think about threatening the opposition penalty area.
My Barcelona Young Boys tip: Barcelona win without conceding a goal
