Bundesliga 29th matchday, Saturday, 12/04/2025 at 6:30 pm
It’s the clash of the (for the time being) disappointed! Both Bayern and Dortmund suffered bitter defeats in the Champions League during the week – and the next setback now threatens in the German classic…
Sandwiched between the royal performances, the Borussians naturally also want to rehabilitate themselves, but after the defeat in Barcelona, I am now expecting the next severe defeat for the black and yellow in the Allianz Arena.
Why BVB doesn’t have the quality and nerves to readjust their focus? That’s exactly what my Bayern Dortmund tip is about – and of course I’ll also tell you why the Winamax voucher is particularly worthwhile right now.
This is a classic that will take your breath away – so much history, so much rivalry, so many emotions. Hardly any other duel has been played as often in German professional soccer as Bayern against Dortmund.
For the 113th time, these two Bundesliga giants will face each other in the top Saturday game. And it’s no longer just a game – it’s a statement.
Bayern has conceded more defeats against BVB than against any other club – most recently 2-0 at home in March 2024. And now?
In my Bayern BVB prediction, you’ll learn what that means for your hopefully successful bet on Saturday and which betting options deserve your full attention here.
The bookmakers’ Bayern v Dortmund prediction
The Bayern v Dortmund odds don’t necessarily match what you would expect from a German Bundesliga classic between evenly matched sides.
Because on every decent sports betting app, you can currently find odds of around 1.45 for a Bayern win, which are on average contrasted by values around 6.25 for an away win for Borussia!
ChatGPT’s AI prediction for Bayern vs. Dortmund
The much-anticipated Bayern Dortmund AI prediction from ChatGPT offers us three very different betting options, which I will now evaluate in detail for you.
For fans of risky betting maneuvers, the first option recommended is “Half-time/final score: X/1”. This is an interesting tip at a high odds of around 4.80 – particularly exciting for those of you with an increased appetite for risk.
It doesn’t sound unrealistic: Bayern could indeed only get going after the break and turn the game around.
For a medium risk, the AI assistant suggests “Over 3.5 goals”.
This encounter is known to always have a high goal potential, so it’s a solid Bayern Dortmund tip where the probability of exceeding the 3.5 goal mark appears high.
For the low risk, the suggestion is finally “Kane scores”. The Englishman is indeed in strong form and has already scored in four of his last five appearances for FCB or the Three Lions.
Analysis: Bayern vs Dortmund
Both teams have disappointed in the Champions League quarter-finals.
In my opinion, Vincent Kompany made some questionable decisions against Inter that probably cost his team the win.
Nevertheless, after the 1-2 defeat against Inter, anything is still possible. In any case, Bayern are in a completely different position to BVB.
Although Borussia Dortmund were able to send a strong signal in the Bundesliga last week with a 4-1 win over Freiburg, the team went under again just a short time later.
As described in my successful Barcelona Dortmund prediction, the Catalans were even able to build what was probably a decisive lead (4-0).
Now that “Operation Champions League” seems to be finally over for BVB, the focus on Saturday could be even more on the Bundesliga classic, after all, a success would be of inestimable importance for a return to the Champions League.
Incidentally, this is a very special game for Niko Kovač, as he returns to his old stomping ground.
The Croatian-born coach was in charge of FC Bayern Munich from 2018 to 2019 and remains the only person to win the double with Bayern as both a player and a coach.
But despite his success with the club, there is one remarkable statistic that Kovač repeatedly struggles with: he has never won against FCB as a coach in the Bundesliga.
In his eight meetings as a coach against Munich, he has only managed one draw and seven defeats. A real curiosity that will surely remain at the back of his mind when he returns to Munich.
Nevertheless, it should also be noted that Kovac won the DFB Cup final against Bayern with Frankfurt.
Odds Analysis
1st goal Harry Kane at odds of 3.55 – a strong, albeit of course somewhat riskier, choice!
The Englishman is in top form and while ChatGPT predicts that he will score, I personally go one step further and specifically predict that he will score the 1-0!
Bayern are averaging odds of 1.85 in both halves – that sounds much safer by comparison.
Munich’s offense is usually extremely powerful and, even without Jamal Musiala, always capable of scoring both before and after the break!
Bayern vs. Dortmund odds: BVB with resistance!
Not only Bayern, but also Borussia could ensure that the score is pushed up on Saturday.
That’s because Borussia Dortmund has scored at least three goals in each of its last two Bundesliga games – for the first time this season.
Note: Since Niko Kovac took over in February, no other team has taken more shots (147) or had a higher xG (20.8) than BVB.
By comparison, Bayern is in second place in both categories (129 shots, 20.2 xG). This offensive power makes Dortmund a real problem for any defense and could make Saturday a goal-filled spectacle.
Perhaps ChatGPT is right with its Bayern Dortmund AI prediction and the 3.5-goal mark will be pulverized early!
Can Oliseh replace Musiala?
It’s going to be a real battle for possession, as both teams are used to controlling the game. Bayern Munich leads the Bundesliga in terms of ball possession, with an average of 69.5% of the game.
Borussia Dortmund follows in second place with 60.4%. Both teams also have a strong defensive intensity: Bayern has the lowest PPDA in the league at 9.5, which means that they take control early in the opposing half.
Dortmund are second with a PPDA of 11.2, which also underlines their aggressive approach to possession. This game will surely be characterized by control of the midfield and efficient transition play.
Following the injury of Jamal Musiala, another Bayern player will now have to pull the strings in midfield.
Michael Olise has already recorded an impressive 10 assists in the Bundesliga this season – the highest number in the league.
Since detailed data collection began in 2004/05, only James Rodríguez has provided more goals in his first season at Bayern (11 assists in 2017/18).
Olise could therefore play a crucial role in helping Bayern get forward and retain possession in this intense clash.
At Dortmund, on the other hand, Serhou Guirassy could provide important offensive impetus.
The attacker is the Bundesliga’s top scorer in the second half of the season with 8 goals, just ahead of Harry Kane (7 goals).
It is noteworthy that Guirassy has already scored more goals in the last 10 games than in the first 14 games of the season (7 goals).
This increase in form makes him a dangerous factor for Dortmund, who will certainly look for their chances in this game as well.
My Bayern Dortmund Tip:
I see Bayern in a slightly better starting position because they have the more mature way of playing.
The loss of Jamal Musiala does represent a weakening, but I still trust Kompany’s team to put in a more convincing performance than BVB on Saturday.
Scores like 3-1, 3-2 or even 4-2 with Harry Kane scoring several goals seem to me to be the most likely of all possible scenarios.
With reference to the low favorite odds for an “easy” Bayern win, I’m going to go with the handicap at the online betting window.
My bet: Bayern beats Dortmund with HC -1
