FC Bayern – Freiburg Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 11 on Saturday, 22/11/2025 at 15:30 CET
After some breathtaking victories against top teams such as PSG, Dortmund, Leverkusen or Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayern got stuck in a rather unexpected place in the last game before the international break.
At Union Berlin, against whom they have never lost so far, FCB had to be content with just one point for the first time this season – and on top of that, it was only saved late.
The Munich team also has a pretty sensational run against SC Freiburg, who are now approaching, after all, only one of the last 44 direct duels in the Bundesliga has been completely ruined.
In my Bayern Freiburg tip, which is placed with one of the best betting providers, I expect a better end for the record champions this time as well – but in all probability it won’t be a sweeping victory.
The first argument against a Munich demonstration of power is the fact that the upcoming sports club is also in a more than presentable condition.
Since SC Freiburg have only lost in one of the last 13 competitive games, it takes the somewhat higher calibre that is now available to go into the game with justified hopes of a full three-pointer.
After all, the Breisgau team is also characterised by a stable defence, which had already allowed fewer shots than all other Bundesliga clubs in last year’s two duels against the Reds.
Nothing fundamental has changed in the stable conditions in the current season either; the average of less than 4 shots allowed per game means a top 4 value in the league.
Bayern – Freiburg Prediction & Betting
While SC Freiburg is usually safe at the back, there is usually little alarm from the offensive department. After only averaging 1.3 goals per appearance so far, the team could once again go away completely empty-handed in Munich.
With the “BTS: NO” at odds of about 1.85 or a clean sheet home win for Bayern at odds of just over 2.00, there are several betting ideas for this scenario.
To do this, it might be a good idea to bet on Harry Kane scoring the first goal once again – thanks to a Bet365 booster, this bet will eventually be trimmed to odds of 4.00.
Not bad for the GOAT Bundesliga shot-stopper, who drew a yield of 13 Bundesliga goals to date from a still rather narrow xG value of 7.24!
What you need to consider when betting on Bayern vs. Freiburg
- FC Bayern Munich have lost just one of their 26 home games against SC Freiburg in all competitions (W22 D3), with that only defeat being a 2-1 defeat in the DFB Cup quarter-finals in April 2023.
- In the Bundesliga, Bayern are unbeaten in all 25 home games against Freiburg (W22 D3) – only against VfL Wolfsburg (28 games) have FC Bayern played more home games in this competition without defeat.
- In both league games of the 2024/25 season, FC Bayern had a total of 19 shots on goal against Freiburg – the lowest total number against a single opponent last season.
- SC Freiburg have lost just one of their last 13 games in all competitions (W7 D5), a 2-0 defeat in the Bundesliga
- at Bayer 04 Leverkusen at the end of October. Only RB Leipzig (1 of 9) and FC Bayern Munich (0 of 13) have suffered only one or fewer defeats among the Bundesliga clubs since the international break in September
Bavaria – Freiburg: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Even though there is really no big reason to complain at Bayern at the moment, the FCB Freiburg AI prediction assumes that the hosts feel a bit challenged.
The tip Bayern Over 2.5 goals at a good odds of 1.70 can still be confidently described as low-risk – after all, the Munich team had only finished the top game against BVB under three goals this season.
In addition, the recommendation that the more or less violent scoring expected by the artificial intelligence will ultimately result in a handicap victory -1 is also comparatively harmless.
However, the rate for this is somewhat meagre in my estimation, with a return of just over 50 percent. On the other hand, each of the last three direct duels in the Allianz Arena had fulfilled this condition (2-0, 3-0, 5-0).
In view of the challenges of the coming week, Bayern could also be in a hurry to get their sheep out of the water. The recommendation that over 1.5 goals are scored in the 1st half is quoted at around 1.90.
By the way, the Bayern Freiburg KI result tip is really good for me at the end. The 3:0 at odds of almost exactly 7.00 had also made it into my shortlist!
The best odds for Bayern vs. Freiburg
From a ratings point of view, favourite tips on Bayern are actually always a thankless thing, which has not changed for the time being even with the small misstep in the An der Alten Försterei stadium.
On the contrary: Also because the sports club is one of the favorite opponents of the Munich high-flyers, the FC Bayern Freiburg odds have only a minimal yield to offer in the event of success.
Betting providers without, but also with Paysafecard deposit function, usually only Bayern Freiburg make odds of currently a maximum of 1.21 loose – which of course causes the payouts for a surprise to explode.
For example, another draw for Bayern at the top would be good for odds of up to 8.00, while a historic away win for the sports club even brings top values of around 15.0.
Bayern vs Freiburg Match Analysis:
Despite the surprising draw against Union Berlin, FC Bayern’s remarkable form remains untarnished this season. His constant dominance was evident throughout the season.
However, given the packed fixture list, which also includes domestic cup and European commitments, there could be a potential shift towards a more cautious approach.
Bayern are the dominant team not only in terms of results, but also in terms of the underlying metrics. With an average possession share of more than 65%, it is obvious that the hosts will set the pace from the start.
Freiburg plays passively, does not exert high pressure, but instead relies on a compact defence. As a result, an average of 2.70 goals are scored in the sports club’s games, which is the third-lowest value in the Bundesliga and 0.51 goals less than the league average.
Harry Kane and Luis Diaz are the two most prolific goalscorers in the league, having scored a combined 19 goals this season.
The two are decisive in almost all games and could get less playing time if the game goes well for the hosts. Vincent Kompany may want to save some legs for the Champions League match against Arsenal in a few days.
Bayern Form Check
The last-minute 2-2 draw against Union Berlin showed that even FC Bayern’s well-oiled machine can stumble, albeit rarely:
Bayern have been top of the table for 42 league games, including last season, and are on the verge of breaking their own record of 43 consecutive matchdays at the top of the Bundesliga from the 1971/72 season.
With the best attack and the best defence – only six goals have been conceded so far – there is little doubt that Bayern can defend its championship status.
The real question with the Bayern Freiburg tip lies in the commitments in the Champions League and the rotation in the squad. Next week’s game against Arsenal in London could prompt Kompany to rest some key players for the league game.
However, Bayern does not seem to suffer after international breaks: This season, the club defeated Hamburg 5-0 and Borussia Dortmund 2-1 immediately after the World Cup qualifiers.
With Kane in top form and Luis Diaz, who is seamlessly integrated after his move from the Premier League to the German league with 11 goals and 5 assists, everything indicates that FC Bayern’s momentum will not fade anytime soon.
Tom Bischof and Lennart Karl bring fresh energy to Vincent Kompany’s team, which is still a strong contender for all titles in Germany and Europe this year.
Freiburg Form Check
In its last league game, Freiburg struggled to break St. Pauli’s resistance. Julian Schuster’s team has now won two games in a row for the second time this season.
However, it will be very difficult to get a third win at the Allianz Arena, where the Black Forest club has lost its last six Bundesliga games. Apart from a DFB Cup win in 2023, Freiburg have not yet won anything at Bayern in this millennium.
Only Mainz has so far had fewer shots on goal per game in the Bundesliga than Freiburg (3.50). The visitors generate most of their chances from set-pieces, scoring an average of 0.43 xG (expected goals) per game.
Despite a possession rate of 50%, this control has not often translated into clear scoring chances, so Freiburg have drawn four league games so far, more than any other team.
As a rule, Freiburg prefers not to press their opponents too high, but instead rely on counterattacks.
Schuster’s team’s positional defense is a strength that allows only 3.80 shots on goal per game, which is the fourth-best value in the Bundesliga.
However, it will not be easy for a team that has conceded two goals each against Leverkusen and Frankfurt, the other Champions League teams SC has played against so far, to stop Bayern.
