Champions League, Tuesday, 08.04.2025 at 21:00
The decisive weeks of the 2024/25 season are upon us – and now, of all times, the German record champions are struggling! In the quarter-finals, Munich will have to play with a severely weakened squad, which will of course have a significant impact on my Bayern v Inter Milan prediction.
I’ll even go so far as to say that the hosts won’t win the first leg. The visitors from Milan have impressed me with their defensive performance since the beginning of the competition, with only two teams scoring against them.
So Bayern will have a tough time, but they would probably be satisfied with a bare 1-0. In principle, FCB are favored to advance (odds 1.70 to 2.10), but does the large number of injured players imply otherwise?
The big goal of the Munich team is still a long way off: they definitely want to make it to the final, which will be held at the Allianz Arena. With Inter, they have now been presented with a stumbling block that would certainly justify an elimination.
We can expect a game in which the famous little things decide the winner and loser. That goals will be scored? It is by no means a given, so it could well be that after the first leg on Tuesday there will be no clear tendency towards the semi-finals.
The bookmakers’ prediction
Was it easy for our PayPal bookmakers to pick a favorite here? The favorite role went to Bayern – presumably also because they have not been defeated in 22 home games in the Champions League. The win rate is estimated at an average of 2.00.
For Inter, on the other hand, the odds climb a good bit higher. We are at 3.70, even though the Italians have won eight out of ten Champions League games.
A draw would not make anyone really happy, although FCB would certainly have something more to worry about. With odds of 3.55, it’s clear that such a draw is not unlikely.
AI prediction Bayern vs Inter Milan: That’s what ChatGPT bets on
Is a game like this suitable for looking at AI betting? I’ve again got three tips from ChatGPT, which I’ll briefly introduce to you now – and I definitely don’t agree with all of them.
“Bayern to win with handicap -1” is the bet that carries a high risk. I definitely don’t go along with this one, because Inter has a rock-solid defense, while Bayern has many injured players. It really doesn’t smell like a one-sided affair to me.
How many goals will be scored in this game? According to the AI, the chances of “Over 2.5” are not bad. Not necessarily my view, because: Anyone who, like Inter, has only conceded two goals in ten CL games is actually defending too well for a spectacle.
That goals will be scored before half-time is apparently not in question for ChatGPT. However, two goals in five of Inter’s first halves speak against it, especially since the odds of not even 1.40 are only suitable for a combination bet. I can certainly imagine a 0-0 after 45 minutes (odds 3.10).
Analysis: Bayern vs. Inter Milan
If an analysis starts by listing all the players who won’t be able to make it, it can’t mean anything good. Bayern face Inter Milan in the quarter-final first leg on Tuesday, and the substitutes’ bench will look very different.
Manuel Neuer, Dayot Upamecano, Alphonso Davies, Jamal Musiala, Kingsley Coman and Aleksandar Pavlovic would normally be expected on the pitch, but all these key stars are now injured.
Musiala’s injury, which will keep him out for eight weeks, was only added a few days ago. After the bumpy 3-2 win against St. Pauli, Munich won 3-1 against Augsburg, keeping their lead in the Bundesliga over Leverkusen at six points.
In the Champions League, the focus is on reaching the final, especially since the final will be played in their own stadium in a few weeks. In the round of 16 against Leverkusen, Bayern put in an outstanding performance, winning 3-0 and 2-0.
Odds Analysis
The defensive performance of the Milan team has impressed me for months. In this respect, given the number of injuries in the Munich team, I can unfortunately imagine that the FCB will not even score on Tuesday – the odds in the Bet365 app are a high 4.30.
If you think that’s too big a risk, you could also try an “Under 1.5 goals Bayern” – we’re now only at 1.70. A 0-0 half-time result, also not unlikely, can be bet at 2.75.
If I have to choose one outcome bet, as difficult as it is for me from a German point of view, I would go for 0:1. Inter has already won four times in the CL with this result, and if it should be the same this time, you can get odds of 11.0 at Interwetten.
Will the CL home series hold?
The sovereignty of Munich was not noticeable in the intermediate round, because they only just made it through against Celtic Glasgow after a very late goal (1:1 after 2:1) – Davies scored, who will now be out for ages.
If we look at the last preliminary round games, I can say that three goals have been scored in the last six games before half-time. If Munich don’t score in the first half on Tuesday either, the odds at Betano would be 1.93.
Inter touches concrete
At the same time, it is of course extremely strong that Bayern have not been beaten in 22 home games in the premier class. The last time they were beaten was in 2021, when they lost 2-3 to Paris St. Germain.
Can I still see it as a bad omen? Maybe, because it was the first leg of the quarter-finals, of all things. What about the round of the best eight in general, how do Bayern fare here?
In 2021, 2022 and 2023 they lost in the quarter-finals, but last year they made it to the semi-finals. The last duels with Inter Milan took place in the fall of 2022, with both won 2-0 in the group stage.
The most recent matches in a knockout round were much longer ago. In 2010, Inter missed out on a 2-0 defeat to Bayern in the final, while in 2011, Munich were narrowly knocked out in the round of 16.
So the two teams have not met that often in recent years. Inter have already played two German opponents this season, with Leverkusen and RB Leipzig on the other side.
Interestingly, Bayer were the team that managed to beat Inter. The Nerazzurri lost 0-1, and the second game they didn’t win in the competition was the 0-0 draw against Manchester City.
So far, Inter have only conceded two goals, which is absolutely outstanding and cannot be beaten by anyone. Is it perhaps crucial that the games they didn’t win were away from home?
1-0 at Young Boys Bern, 1-0 against Sparta Prague and 2-0 against Feyenoord Rotterdam: the three opponents that Inter have beaten away from home are undoubtedly not among the very best. But Bayern lost 3-0 at Feyenoord!
Does it matter for Tuesday’s game that Inter messed up their domestic dress rehearsal? In Serie A, they only played 2:2 against Parma, squandered a 2:0 lead and thus ensured that the championship is anything but decided.
There is one more thing I would like to note, and that concerns the goals conceded in the Champions League. One against Leverkusen was scored almost at the final whistle, the other against Feyenoord from the penalty spot – so they are really hard to beat.
My Bayern Inter Milan Tip:
The Bavarians are facing a very difficult home game because the injury misery has hit them hard. With Inter Milan, they are up against a team that is hard to beat when it comes to defending.
The Italians have conceded two goals, both of which were very close to not happening at all. From a German point of view, I’m keeping my fingers crossed for the record champions, of course, but unfortunately I think it won’t be possible to create the perfect starting point for the second leg.
The black and blues are just too strong for me to imagine a defeat in Munich. I expect a close match at eye level, in which the guests have the decisive moments on their side. My tip is therefore:
Inter will not lose in Munich!
