Bundesliga Matchday 31, Saturday, 04/26/2025, 3:30 p.m.
The Allianz Arena could become a party mile. Preparations are underway. The championship shirts have been printed. FC Bayern is on the verge of a decisive moment and could clinch the championship title on Saturday. But: Mathematically speaking, a win alone will not be enough.
My Bayern Mainz prediction naturally focuses on how Munich will react to Leverkusen’s parallel match. The Werkself are playing in Augsburg at the same time.
If last year’s champions slip up and FCB wins, it’s all over. But even if they don’t win the title, Bayern seem unstoppable.
Meanwhile, the visitors from Mainz are fighting bitterly for the Champions League, but their nerves are failing them in the decisive phase of the season. In addition, their defense no longer looks particularly stable. Munich? An extremely uncomfortable place for the 05ers.
In recent years, as I will discuss in more detail later, they have been soundly beaten time and time again on the banks of the Isar. The German record champions had already shown in Heidenheim how angry they can be about being knocked out of the Champions League.
In my current analysis, I will explain why I consider the bet “home win and over 2.5 goals” to be a sure thing. And Mainz will know from experience that even six goals against would not be a sensation here!
The bookmakers’ predictions?
It’s business as usual, of course: when FC Bayern plays at home in the Bundesliga, they are the clear favorites. This Saturday, our German bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.22.
Mainz, winless in five games, has to settle for 11.5. In 2010 and 2016, they took all three points from the Allianz Arena, but they usually return home empty-handed.
A draw would obviously be disappointing for FCB, as the two teams haven’t drawn in a direct duel for more than eight years. Accordingly, the odds for a draw (6.40) are also climbing high this time.
AI prediction Bayern vs Mainz: Here’s what ChatGPT thinks
Does ChatGPT include the championship question in its betting suggestions for this weekend? I find the tips suggested to me by the AI quite interesting, at least.
The bet that carries the highest risk is for the correct final score. In this case, it’s 4-0. Eight, six, two, five, six, six, four – in their last home games against Mainz, FCB have been firing on all cylinders, so a 4-0 win is definitely possible.
With the tip “Bayern win -2 HC,” you are aiming for approximate odds of 2.50. Since 2017, only one home game has not fallen into this category, so I would not advise against this bet either.
BTS also makes it into the AI suggestions. Mainz have failed to score seven times this season, but Bayern have conceded in six of their last seven games. Conclusion: A win for the visitors is by no means out of the question.
Analysis: Bayern vs Mainz
No DFB Cup, no Champions League – but almost certainly at least the championship. FC Bayern sent a clear signal to rivals Leverkusen with their recent 4-0 win over Heidenheim.
It hit home, as Leverkusen slipped up decisively in their 1-1 draw with St. Pauli, leaving Munich with an eight-point lead going into the final four matchdays. Mainz, Leipzig, Gladbach, and Hoffenheim – it seems almost impossible to throw it away now.
It would certainly do Bayern good to end this season with a winning streak. The last time they managed more than two wins in a row was at the end of January/beginning of February, and with three wins from their last six games, their haul currently looks a little thin.
Now the Reds no longer have to focus on the Champions League and can channel all their remaining energy into the Bundesliga. They currently have 72 points, the same number they had in 2023/24 after 34 matchdays.
Odds analysis
It’s not easy to analyze this game correctly – after all, the parallel game also plays a role. Mainz are bringing a strong defense to Munich, conceding only 17 goals after the break.
Since Bayern went into the break against Heidenheim with a 3-0 lead, I could well imagine betting on “Over 1.5 goals for FCB in the first half.” At Betano, you would get odds of 2.60 for this. At the same time, you could also bet on “More goals in the first half,” which would give you odds of 3.05.
Thomas Müller could set a new record on Saturday as he is set to make his 500th Bundesliga appearance for FCB. If he crowns this with a substitute goal, that would mean odds of 2.87 for you.
Bayern vs. Mainz: How clear-cut will it be?
With 87 goals to their name, the question is: will the attackers go all out to break the 100 mark? Theoretically possible, because an incredible number of goals have been scored against Mainz in recent years – at least at home.
In the first half of the season, as Bayern fans will surely remember, FCB suffered a 1-2 slip-up, their fourth defeat in the last seven away games against Mainz.
At home, however, there is hardly any trouble. 8-1, 6-2, 2-1, 5-2, 6-1, 6-0, 4-0 – that’s a series to be proud of. Interestingly, three of the last four defeats against Mainz came in April – but always away from home.
With 29 goals conceded, FC Bayern also has the best defense of any team this season. Interestingly, they have only conceded eleven goals before halftime, which is better than any other team.
The visitors from Mainz, on the other hand, have conceded 17 goals in the second half, putting them at the top of this statistic. In terms of personnel, it could be interesting news that Leon Goretzka’s participation is in doubt.
Is Mainz afraid of Europe?
The visitors from Mainz should not be looking at individual players in the opposing team, as they have enough to contend with in their current situation. The 05ers are actually having a brutally strong season, but they are running out of steam at the end.
In sixth place, they are right in the thick of the battle for Europe, and even the Champions League (fourth place is only two points away) is a realistic possibility. The problem is that they are not in good form at the moment, with no wins in their last five games.
A 2-2 draw against Freiburg, a 1-3 defeat in Dortmund, a 2-2 draw against Kiel, a 0-2 defeat in Hoffenheim and a 2-2 draw against Wolfsburg – considering the opponents, that’s far too little. They have already lost three away games in a row once before, in 2025, and now they are in danger of doing so again.
The team has not kept a clean sheet in the last seven matches, and the defense has never looked so uncertain. The defense has also struggled away from home, with only Heidenheim keeping a clean sheet in the second half of the season.
Remarkably, Mainz has only gone into halftime with a 0-0 score twice this season. The last two games ended 0-2 after the first 45 minutes. Interesting: This special result bet against FCB would yield odds of 5.20 at Betano.
Coach Bo Henriksen knows: “We have never gone so long without a win under my leadership. With Bayern, Frankfurt, and Leverkusen (plus Bochum) on the schedule, the rest of the program looks brutally difficult, and it’s quite possible that it will cost us in Europe as well.”
Top striker Jonathan Burkardt is currently lacking his top form. He has scored three times in the last ten games. In addition, Mainz may have to do without injured pros Philipp Mwene and Maxim Leitsch on Saturday.
My Bayern Mainz prediction:
Will Bayern seal the deal on Saturday or will Leverkusen spoil the party once again? The title race could be decided if the Werkself plays along. Mainz is a favorite opponent, especially with a home game coming up.
Of course, the 05ers don’t want to just stand there and watch, but they also know that they have regularly been crushed in Munich in recent years – four to six goals conceded at the Allianz Arena, and once even eight, have been the norm!
In this respect, I assume that the home side will have everything under control and will do everything they can to celebrate the title with their fans. This results in the following bet:
Bayern will win with over 2.5 goals!
