Bayern Munich – Benfica Prediction Club World Cup, Group C on Tuesday, 24.06.2025 at 21:00 (Live on TV)
While top European teams have stumbled in droves at the Club World Cup, good old Bayern are marching forward like a well-oiled machine at the tournament in the United States.
With victories over Auckland and Boca Juniors, Munich have already fulfilled their duty in the preliminary round and can now plan ahead for the round of 16.
While the Portuguese side still have to fight for qualification, the German record champions are only interested in winning the group tonight.
And even though there will probably be a major reshuffle in the FCB camp on matchday 3, I see no reason to doubt that Bayern will successfully defend their lead in my Bayern Benfica prediction.
After all, the Portuguese Eagles are a favorite opponent for Munich: Benfica has not won any of the 13 previous competitive matches between the two sides (10 defeats).
For the Iberians, the fact that their comeback against Boca Juniors in their opening game only resulted in a 2-2 draw could now come back to haunt them.
As a result, it is anything but unlikely that Benfica will even need the help of the semi-professionals from Auckland to make it through the preliminary round…
Bayern – Benfica Lisbon Prediction & Betting
I’m holding back with my suggested bet on BTS over 2.5 goals with a recommendation for one of the two teams, but I’ll be happy to make up for that here.
Since FC Bayern has not lost any of its 13 previous competitive matches against the Eagles, my preference here is clear – especially since the Munich team has also made a really strong impression in the tournament so far.
At odds of almost 2.00, I am therefore convinced that FC Bayern is the most likely candidate to score at least two goals here.
If the goals are spread across both halves, as was the case against Boca and Auckland, the winnings increase to three times the stake. This is an offer I find hard to turn down…
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Bayern vs. Benfica
- Although Benfica has scored four fewer goals than Bayern, Benfica leads the xG ranking (7.4) after the second matchday. The Portuguese average 9.5 shots on goal per game, just one fewer than Bayern.
- Bayern Munich leads the rankings in goals, shots on goal, big chances, and touches in the opponent’s penalty area.
- In the first round, Bayern scored ten goals against Auckland City FC without Harry Kane contributing a single goal. That changed against River Plate, when the Englishman scored his first goal of the season. In the third round, the odds for Kane to score are 2.10 – the highest odds he has had in the CWC so far.
- Bayern Munich have never lost to Benfica, winning 10 games and drawing three. Bayern have won the last five head-to-head matches, including the Champions League clash in November 2024 (1-0 thanks to a goal from Jamal Musiala).
- Angel Di Maria leads the rankings with 2.5 xG after just two games, ahead of Jamal Musiala (1.7 xG) and Michael Olise (0.8). However, Olise stands out with five direct goal contributions, combining goals and assists to achieve the best offensive performance so far.
Bayern – Benfica Lisbon: odds analysis
FC Bayern Munich has already secured a place in the round of 16, but remains the favorite to win with odds just above the 2.00 mark at the best bookmakers.
These are the highest odds for a Bayern victory in the last seven direct encounters, six of which the German record champions have won, including a 1-0 victory in November 2024 in the Champions League group stage.
Despite the expected rotation, our in-house artificial intelligence is convinced that a Bayern victory offers real value – the Bayern Benfica AI prediction identifies the favorite as a sure bet.
However, the AI also has the opposite scenario in mind: the double chance for Benfica (1X) has an implied probability of around 57% – meaning that the Portuguese team will not lose.
Although Benfica is desperate to get the point it needs on its own, the odds of around 1.75 seem a little too low. The odds would have to be a little more appealing for me to place a bet against the Reds.
However, the Benfica Bayern AI tip manages to do just that with a goal scorer bet on Angel di Maria, which is also perfectly compatible with my carefully selected main tip.
Betting providers such as Betano are offering strong odds of 4.40 if the Argentine scores a goal for Benfica at any point in the game!
The best odds for Bayern vs. Benfica
Although FC Bayern has presented itself from its best side in the Club World Cup so far, the 1X2 bets have a lot to offer all fans of the German champions in the last group match.
Because only Benfica still has something to play for in this match, the odds for the favorites are easily breaking the 2.00 mark – which is certainly not something you see every day.
On the other hand, it has not been this unattractive for a long time to bet on a respectable result for the Eagles against FCB:
If a draw, which would be enough for both teams to advance, is considered satisfactory with odds of just over 3.0, Benfica’s first competitive win ever in this fixture is priced at a generous 4.30.
Bayern vs. Benfica match analysis:
With Bayern Munich at the top of Group C and already qualified for the round of 16, the Benfica Bayern tip is mainly about the Portuguese side’s ambitions to progress.
The Eagles need a draw to stay in the competition, but even a narrow defeat could still be enough if Boca fail to make up their goal difference.
Bayern have dominated the group so far and could now rest key players to save energy for the knockout stages. Benfica must be cautious from the start and focus more on defense. If Bayern find their way to goal, it will be really tough for the Portuguese side.
The last meeting showed that Benfica are capable of standing up to the German giants – or even beating them.
Bayern’s statistical superiority, with 1.27 xG from a total of 24 shots and 10 shots on goal, was ultimately only enough for a narrow 1-0 victory. Benfica had just one shot on goal in that game, with 0.08 xG.
However, the picture is different in the current competition. The two teams lead most of the offensive statistics. Benfica and Bayern are both at the top in xG (7.4 vs. 6.7), shots on goal per game (9.5 vs. 10.5) and big chances (13 vs. 13).
Both teams like to play offensively, which is also reflected in the number of touches in the opponent’s penalty area. Bayern leads this statistic with 119, followed by Benfica in second place with 89.
FC Bayern Munich form check
The favorites in Group C have lived up to expectations so far. A ruthless 10-0 win over Auckland City on the first matchday was followed by a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Boca Juniors. It was a game that tested their determination against an aggressive opponent and was therefore excellent preparation for the upcoming match against Benfica.
Statistically speaking, Bayern are the most efficient team in the competition. They lead the way in several areas, including goals per game (6.0), shots on goal per game (10.5), big chances (13, the same as Benfica), touches in the opponent’s penalty area (119) and more.
However, Bayern looked vulnerable at times in defense. Boca had 0.77 xG and forced Neuer into several saves. Auckland managed just one shot on goal, but a similar chance could be enough for a player like Ángel Di María…
Just like their next opponents, Bayern dominate in midfield and in ball possession. With 8.0 balls won in the final third per game, they top the rankings. In addition, they have a clean sheet with only 12 fouls per game and just one yellow card so far.
Benfica Lisbon form check
Benfica dropped points in their spectacular opening game against underdogs Boca Juniors. The game had everything: a total of four goals, three red cards, own goals, and a penalty – and ended in a 2-2 draw.
However, the 6-0 win against Auckland City certainly helped them recover. As a direct result of being grouped with the Australian amateur club, Benfica currently has the highest xG value in the Club World Cup – which once again suggests a high-scoring bet for the Benfica Bayern prediction!
With a total of 7.4 expected goals in just two games, Benfica is well ahead of Bayern Munich (6.7), their next opponent. However, these statistics are meaningless against an opponent like Bayern.
Interestingly, Benfica was significantly more dominant in the second half of both games. In a game where qualification is at stake, a quieter first half and a test of Bayern’s tactics are to be expected once again.
Benfica is solid defensively, but not flawless. Against Boca, they conceded two goals despite having numerical superiority for long periods of the game. Auckland City managed to keep a clean sheet until shortly before the end of the first half – it was only after the restart that Benfica really got going.
One ray of hope that could surprise Bayern is the possession rate in the final third of the game. Benfica leads the way here with 6.5 per game. The Portuguese team also won the ball 51 times in midfield. Control will be a decisive factor.
My tip: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score
