Bundesliga 9th matchday, Saturday, 02/11/2024 at 3:30 pm
The fear-filled second round of the DFB Cup is over, and now FC Bayern can fully focus on the Bundesliga again. The German record champions are leading the competition, but have to play at home against the fourth-placed team this Saturday.
Don’t worry, dear FCB fans, I can quickly reassure you in my Bayern Union Berlin tip.
The Munich team has never lost to Union, especially since the guests from the capital have to cope with the cup elimination. Their strength? It lies clearly in the defense.
For this reason, I am betting that the favorites will prevail and that we will see a maximum of four goals.
RB Leipzig are hot on Bayern’s heels in terms of points, so they cannot afford to make a mistake. It’s a good thing that word has got around about how reluctant the Berliners are to travel, and that seems set to continue in 2024/25.
And so it’s business as usual when the Kompany side plays at home: they are the clear favorites. The Bayern Union Berlin odds show us an average of 1.18 to 13.0, which doesn’t leave much room for the underdog to win.
I would now like to show you in no uncertain terms why, for me, only a home win comes into question. And of course I will also tell you in detail why I draw the line at four goals!
For decades it has been the same: when Bayern play in their own stadium in the Bundesliga, they are also favored. In the FC Bayern Union Berlin tip, the favorite role is once again very clear, and not even odds of 1.20 can be achieved.
The Irons are in good form overall, but after their elimination from the cup, our betting providers don’t quite trust them as much. If the big upset happens on the Isar, you would be rewarded with odds of around 13.0.
A draw would, of course, be a great result for the visitors. In three out of ten duels, they managed to get a 1-1 draw. If there is really no winner on Saturday, the bookies offer odds of 8.00 on average.
KI-Prognose Bayern vs Union Berlin: Darauf tippt ChatGPT
What does the AI think about this game, which, in terms of odds, has to be categorized as David versus Goliath? ChatGPT has focused a lot of the three suggestions on the win bets.
What does that mean? The bet that implies a higher risk is a 0-2 handicap. Realistic, because the last four Bayern victories in the Bundesliga have all had at least a four-goal lead.
The risk is slightly lower if you aim for a Munich victory with no goals scored against you – that also already applies to four successes! Since the last three home games against Union didn’t see any goals conceded and the guests tend to be cautious in their attacks, this suggestion also gets my okay.
It’s quite simple as far as the low risk is concerned: victory for Bayern! It’s no longer a surprise that I agree with this. However, the odds here are only 1.18, so it’s an absolute sure thing tip.
Analysis: Bayern vs Union Berlin
What’s going on at the Isar, a stormy autumn low with rain and a bad mood? Or are we more likely to see a golden autumn with high spirits and lots of goals?
There is still some disagreement at FC Bayern, but a looming crisis has definitely been successfully averted. After failing to win twice in the league against Frankfurt (3:3) and Leverkusen (1:1), they also lost 1:4 to Barcelona in the premier league.
The league leaders didn’t play badly, they just made far too many mistakes at the back and missed too many chances up front. The 5-0 win against Bochum was a rehabilitation, and the 4-0 win in the DFB Cup in Mainz was even more so.
Three times in the last four years, Munich had failed in the second round, but this time they performed extremely well and took the lead after just a minute and a half.
The fact that the offense can’t be the problem is quickly demonstrated by the 29 goals scored in the Bundesliga. Harry Kane scored nine of them, with Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala scoring five and four respectively.
Odds analysis
In offense, Bayern can do almost no wrong. Union may have a stable defense, but they have already suffered enough clear defeats against Munich. Therefore, the Over 2.5 goals could be worthwhile for FCB, which is rewarded with odds of 1.78 at Betano.
In the DFB Cup, we got to see an absolute gala performance from Jamal Musiala. The national player has already scored twice against Union, and if he scores again on Saturday, you will be offered odds of 2.35.
The German record champions were already leading 4-0 at half-time against Mainz, and they also got off to a good start in Bochum. For this reason, I see a good chance of a lead after 45 minutes, for which you will still get odds of 1.55.
Bayern vs. Union Berlin: Beware of the Bavarian offense!
6:1 against Kiel, 5:0 in Bremen, 4:0 against VfB Stuttgart and 5:0 against Bochum – the last four wins are definitely impressive. 29 goals after eight rounds? Bayern have thus equaled their record from the 2021/22 and 1976/77 seasons!
It is also worth noting that they have kept four clean sheets already this season. They managed the same number of clean sheets in the first 19 (!) games of the 2024 calendar year! So while the defense may not yet be completely watertight, it is visibly improving.
Union Berlin is truly not a feared opponent; with seven wins and three draws, the industry leader has never lost to the Irons. Both narrow results and sweeping victories are possible against the club from the capital.
Can Union get a point?
The best example comes from last season: 1-0 and 5-1! Of course, the Berliners know that their trip to the Isar has so far only earned them a single point, a 1-1 in 2021.
Nevertheless, they have no reason to be downbeat about their current haul. With four wins, three draws and one defeat, a 0-1 in the last second against Mönchengladbach, they are in a strong fourth place.
0-0 against RB Leipzig, 2-1 against Dortmund or 1-1 against Frankfurt? Yes, even the top teams have their problems against the newly formed Unioners! However, it is also clear that home games are the team’s favorite.
Three wins and a draw against SGE, that’s awesome. Away from home, however, they play a bit more cautiously. The 2-0 win in Kiel was their first, while in Leipzig (0-0) and Mainz (1-1) they simply failed to score, and they also lost 1-0 to Gladbach.
So, many goals don’t fall at all when Union plays away. Or rather, they don’t fall in general, because a goal difference of 9:5 calculates an average of 1.75. With five goals conceded, the team has the second-best defense behind RB Leipzig.
This compensates for the fact that the club has the third-weakest offense in the league with nine goals. And that became clear last Wednesday when Union Berlin had to play against Arminia Bielefeld in the cup.
The first division team was knocked out! They lost 0-2, even though they had more than 70% possession of the ball. Now we can look forward to seeing how the club deals with this defeat.
My Bayern Union Berlin Tip:
In Munich, the wind is blowing a little more calmly again, but of course FC Bayern would be wise to just keep winning. The last victories were very convincing, and the Munich team never lacks for goals.
The situation is quite different for Union Berlin. The Irons defend magnificently, but this is clearly at the expense of their own attack. In Munich, they also lost three times in a row without scoring a single goal.
For these reasons, I have decided to clearly favor the favorites, but to somewhat limit the possibilities of a shooting festival. And so I come to the following tip:
Bayern will win a game with a maximum of four goals!
