Bayern – Wolfsburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 16 on Sunday, 11.01.2026 at 17:30 CET
While there had been some doubts about FC Bayern’s squad and general performance before the start of the season, the autumn developed into a single dream – at least from the point of view of FCB supporters.
With his points average, Vincent Kompany is following in the footsteps of the supposedly unattainable Pep Guardiola. It feels like the title defense is already over before the end of the first half of the season.
This is not least because no noise is to be expected on matchday 16 of the Bundesliga. After all, the Munich team will have to deal with an opponent who has never won at the Allianz Arena.
My Bayern Wolfsburg tip is therefore prepared for a crystal clear case. If Merkur Bets makes a strong 10.0 for a disdainful Bayern victory for new customers via betting bonus, for me as a veteran tipster the handicap victory -2 doesn’t even come quite close to the 2.0 mark …
Doubts about a home win for Bayern must be almost forbidden when looking at the record so far. After 28 home games against the Wolves, only two draws have a minimal impact on the balance with 26 wins.
At the end of last year, the Reds had a little bit of a hard time against one or the other lightweight (2-2 against Mainz, 3-1 against St. Pauli) even in front of their home crowd:
After the short breather, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bayern get off to a similarly strong start as at the start of the season, when RB Leipzig were defeated 6-0.
Bayern – Wolfsburg Prediction & Betting
Old and new betting providers do not make it easy for bettors to land a halfway presentable return with a realistic-looking bet – the starting and odds situation simply seems far too clear for that.
Statistically substantiated, I therefore take a little risk: Since Bayern scored more points in home games than any other Bundesliga team after falling behind (namely 7), I bet on the corresponding Bayern Wolfsburg tip “FCB wins after falling behind” at a longing rate of 5.0.
The much more realistic assumption that at least 4 goals will be scored in the Allianz Arena at the end of what is probably the coldest matchday of the year – odds of 1.50 – is noticeably less effective.
Last but not least, unsurprisingly, I can’t get past Harry Kane here. For a brace (plus X) of the goal guarantor, for example, Bet-at-home returns just under 2.5 times the stake.
What you need to know about Bayern vs. Wolfsburg betting
- With 41 points in the first 15 Bundesliga games in 2025/26, FC Bayern Munich is playing the best season of a club in BL history – only Bayern themselves picked up as many points from the first 15 BL games in 2013/14 (41).
- VfL Wolfsburg is playing its second-weakest Bundesliga season with 15 points after 15 games – only in 2016/17 were there fewer points at this point (13), when VfL only avoided relegation in the relegation play-offs.
- For the first time since February 2019, VfL Wolfsburg have scored three goals in three Bundesliga games in a row. FC Bayern Munich recently scored at least twice in 23 consecutive BL games – a current BL record – and scored 55 goals in the first 15 BL games of the season, a new BL record.
- VfL Wolfsburg have already squandered 15 points after taking the lead this Bundesliga season, a clear league high. No other club has picked up as many points at home in the Bundesliga this season as FC Bayern Munich (7).
Bayern – Wolfsburg: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
The starting position is far too clear before kick-off early on Sunday evening to demand completely original recommendations from the Bayern Wolfsburg AI forecast.
If you stick to the relevant statistics, you can almost only come to the conclusion that the league leader will also dominate this game for long stretches.
This expectation is reflected in the artificial intelligence in the bet odds of 1.80 that FCB will win both halves against the Lower Saxony team.
Meanwhile, the assumption seems to be more in the direction of my risk prognosis that the Bayern engine will stutter a little, at least in the first half.
Finally, the AI also considers it plausible that both teams will score at least one goal in the first half, which in my opinion brings a rather sensational rate of around 4.10.
However, this odds are traditionally topped by the result tip – and I could also live with the 4-1 victory of Bayern propagated here at odds of 11.0 with a view to my original prediction!
The best odds for Bayern vs. Wolfsburg
The Bayern Wolfsburg odds offer me the welcome opportunity to recommend the current combined odds fireworks from Oddset to you. For combos with at least five selections, bettors can benefit from generous bonuses here.
If you want to bet on a home win for Bayern, you practically can’t avoid trying your luck with a combination of any kind – after all, odds of around 1.13 can only be found for “Tip 1”.
Consequently, the offers for a rather absurd stumble of FC Bayern are all the more attractive, so double-digit odds are easily possible for a point split.
If, on the other hand, the Wolves have saved their very first victory on the Isar for the start of 2026, anticipatory bettors can even benefit from dream odds of up to 22.0.
Bayern vs Wolfsburg Match Analysis:
Even though there is still a long way to go, it is hard to imagine that someone could challenge Bayern for the Bundesliga title.
However, the goal of repeating Leverkusen’s unbeaten season will motivate Bayern, so we can expect another commanding performance from Vincent Kompany’s side when they take on Wolfsburg, who are 26 points behind Bayern in the Bundesliga.
FC Bayern’s average possession rate of 68% is by far the top of the league. Wolfsburg, on the other hand, is in the bottom five of the Bundesliga in terms of average possession rate.
Therefore, it is to be expected that the guests will have little possession, as they will find it difficult to hold their own against FC Bayern’s relentless pressing.
Vincent Kompany’s team does not play passively when they are in possession of the ball. Bayern average 19.73 shots on goal per game, 7.73 times more than Wolfsburg, showing that they like to put the ball in dangerous areas and test the opposing goalkeeper as soon as they win it back.
Kamil Grabara will have a lot to do here, just like last season when he made seven saves.
Wolfsburg must hope that the home side do not take advantage of their chances in front of goal to get a good result. However, Bayern are the club with the highest xG value (expected goals) in the league, so it is hard to imagine that they will not consistently refine their chances.
Wolfsburg could cause Bayern problems in the air. Mainz managed to score two header goals against Kompany’s team in their last game at the Allianz Arena. However, Daniel Bauer’s team will have limited opportunities to get the ball into the penalty area.
Bayern Form Check
FC Bayern Munich has had an impressive first half of the season, in which they have not only shown spectacular football, but also demonstrated teamwork, hard work and determination.
The team is still unbeaten in the Bundesliga and has secured the unofficial title of “first round champion” at the halfway point of the season. Historically, Bayern have won the championship in 24 out of 27 cases (89%) in which the team was at the top at the time, which is a great encouragement for Vincent Kompany’s team.
Bayern have built up a nine-point lead at the top of the table after 13 wins, two draws and a remarkable goal difference of +44 in the first 15 games. FC Bayern set a new record in Bundesliga history for this stage of the season, scoring at least two goals in each of their last 23 league games.
Over the course of 2025, FC Bayern collected 87 points in 34 Bundesliga games and suffered only one defeat, a 3-2 win against VfL Bochum in March.
FC Bayern became the first team in the history of the Bundesliga to remain at the top of the table without interruption from 1 January to 31 December.
FC Bayern ended the year with an impressive 107 goals, a feat only achieved by themselves in 2021 and Cologne in 1977. At the Allianz Arena, FC Bayern have scored at least two goals in each of their last 23 home games.
Wolfsburg Form Check
Wolfsburg’s three-game unbeaten streak ended against Freiburg, Daniel Baum’s first game as head coach. Wolfsburg led 3-2 with twenty minutes to go, but then conceded two goals between the 71st and 78th minutes and lost the game.
This season, Wolfsburg have given away 15 points after taking the lead in the Bundesliga, more than any other team. Wolfsburg also conceded their sixth penalty against Freiburg, more than any other team in the Bundesliga this season.
Wolfsburg is currently three points ahead of the relegation zone and continues to fight to stay in the league. With 15 points, however, it is the second worst start after 15 games in the club’s history, only undercut by the 2016/17 season with 13 points.
Despite their struggles, the Wolves have picked up 67% of their points away from home (10 out of 15), which is the highest percentage of any Bundesliga team this season.
Wolfsburg made a single transfer in January, signing centre-back Cleiton from Flamengo from Brazil, where he has made 21 appearances in all competitions.
