Champions League, Wednesday, 11.12.2024 at 21:00
For Bologna, elimination from the Champions League is de facto only a matter of time. With just one point to their name, the Italians are in deep trouble.
Their next game is at Benfica Lisbon on Wednesday. I’m not optimistic that the visitors will get their act together.
However, the Portuguese are in good form. I’m expecting a home win, although it should still be within reason and I’m adding under 5.5 goals for a small odds push at Merkur Bets.
The intermediate round is already halfway safe for Benfica. They are 14th with three games to go, five points clear of 25th place and the prospects of a three-pointer on Wednesday are good.
And not unimportant in view of the remaining program. After all, FC Barcelona are still coming to the Portuguese capital and there is also an away game at Juventus Turin on the horizon.
The bookmaker forecast
Benfica are clearly ahead at 1.55 at Merkur Bets. If you bet on Bologna and are successful, you can increase your stake almost sixfold.
A draw at 4.20 is even more likely, but given the odds, anything other than a home win would be a surprise.
There are also no exciting double odds. I would only be interested in the 1X, but only a 1.10 awaits us here.
KI prediction Benfica Lisbon vs. Bologna: ChatGPT
What does the AI have up its sleeve for this match? As a low-risk bet, ChatGPT suggests the bet that Benfica will score the first goal on Wednesday evening.
The odds are too low for me personally, as they are just below the 1.50 mark. In addition, Bologna have scored first in the last three competitive matches.
The medium-risk artificial intelligence bet is the bet that the hosts will win without conceding a goal. I’m much more comfortable with that
After all, Bologna is the weakest offense with only one goal after five CL games, but I also rate the bet as too hot.
Benfica have only played one game in the top flight without conceding a goal and Bologna have shown more in attack recently, scoring nine goals in three games.
Benfica winning both halves is the AI odds with high risk. We are already in the higher 3.00 range.
Analysis: Benfica Lisbon vs. Bologna
An interesting selection from ChatGPT, which is mainly aimed at a success of Benfica and in this sense covers itself with my victory bet, which I still upgrade a little with under 5.5 goals odds.
We haven’t seen more than five goals in a single Bologna match this season, not a statistic that will blow you away.
After all, Vincenzo Italiano’s team is neither known for its offensive fireworks nor for conceding many goals.
This is also reflected in the Expected Goals of the Champions League. Although Bologna’s 4.6 xG is slightly better than the actual goals scored, they are still at the bottom of the table.
At the same time, the expected goals against is a strong 6.3, which is 13th in this rating.
Rating Analysis
And where does Benfica stand? Lisbon are actually in the top 10 in this category and have the ninth-best defense in terms of the quality of chances created by their opponents.
In terms of goals scored, Benfica have scored ten, making them one of the more dangerous attacks. Overall, these figures confirm that an under bet definitely makes sense.
At the same time, I’m not averse to both teams scoring. One does not exclude the other. Bet365, the official partner of the Champions League, is giving us a whopping 1.77 for this.
Strong odds, as Bologna must go for the win to keep their remaining chance of progressing and nine goals in the last three games show a positive turnaround in front of the opponent’s box.
Benfica Lisbon – Bologna odds: Benfica in top form
A good 14th place in the Champions League standings after wins against Belgrade, Atletico and Monaco and in the league, Sporting are within reach. The arch-rivals have lost their last two games.
Benfica are only two points behind with one game less to play and can therefore overtake them. They have now won five competitive matches in a row, including a resounding 4:1 victory over Porto and a 3:2 win over Monaco in the Champions League.
Most recently, the clean sheet lasted twice against smaller clubs in the Portuguese league, Victoria Guimares and Arouca.
Bologna only scored against Donetsk
And Bologna? Qualification for the Champions League came as a surprise in any case and is unlikely to be repeated this year. Eighth place and already nine points behind fourth place in Serie A.
Bologna have won just five of their 14 games. A 3-0 win against promoted Venice was followed by a 4-0 win against Monza in the Coppa Italia.
A third victory was in the offing against Juventus, but the northern Italians finally managed to equalize a 2-0 deficit in the second minute of stoppage time.
While Bologna scored their only goal in the Champions League in their last match against Lille (1:2), their only point came in a 0:0 draw against Donetsk.
Benfica vs Bologna, this clash celebrates its premiere on Wednesday! However, not all the players will be able to take part.
Bologna will have to make sacrifices in the center and in attack.
The absence of Riccardo Orsolini, who is the top scorer in the league with six goals, is particularly bitter. Benfica are also missing three players, but no key players.
My Benfica Lisbon Bologna tip:
Bologna have been much more to my liking in recent games. However, the two wins came against Venice and Monza, who are ranked 19th and 20th in Serie A. A Champions League away game at Benfica is a completely different matter.
Especially as the Eagles are storming from win to win and are definitely going for three points on Wednesday with Juve and Barcelona in their remaining program. I expect Benfica to win, although the score should be within reason.
Above all, the 2:1 and 3:1 are on my mind, which as a multi-chance result combo, by the way, result in a whopping one at Winamax. Incidentally, a strong new customer bonus awaits you there in the form of free bets worth up to 100 euros!
My Benfica Lisbon Bologna prediction: Win Benfica & under 5.5 goals!
