Benfica – Chelsea Tip Club World Cup, Round of 16 on Saturday, 06/28/2025 at 10:00 p.m.
For Benfica, the trip to the United States has undoubtedly already paid off – after all, they beat Bayern for the first time ever in their 14th attempt.
However, the group victory they secured feels like a poisoned chalice. The Portuguese side have not chosen the easy route to the Club World Cup quarter-finals, which are now up for grabs.
My Benfica Lisbon Chelsea tip also comes to the conclusion that the Eagles will only make it to the round of 16 in the current tournament.
Under the impression of a completely disastrous second half against Flamengo, the English side have also played anything but a perfect first half of the season.
However, their flawless record against Benfica (3 games, 3 wins) means that bookmakers don’t have to think twice about who the favorites are in the Benfica Chelsea prediction.
However, Benfica’s performances so far have also contributed to this assessment. The Portuguese side’s rather mediocre performances have led to some disproportionately good results.
For example, they largely slept through the first half against Auckland and Boca Juniors. Most recently, the Portuguese side largely abandoned any initiative after taking the lead against Bayern.
Benfica – Chelsea prediction & bets
With my Benfica Chelsea tip for a Blues victory, I am sticking with the betting mainstream. I have to admit, somewhat contritely, that my other bets for the round of 16 also offer little in the way of originality.
Strictly speaking, however, it is not really a flaw that it does not take much imagination to picture the events I have predicted coming to pass.
It is fairly obvious that at least three goals will be scored in this match, for which the best-tested betting providers are offering odds of up to 1.98.
Chelsea have always scored in the first half so far, while Benfica needed some time to get going, particularly against Auckland and Boca. That’s why I’m also betting on at least one goal in both halves. If I’m right, I can calculate 1.8 times my stake!
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Benfica vs. Chelsea
- Benfica has won six games against other European teams (outside Portugal) this season. Since 2020/21, the club has lost only 14 (26%) of its 53 games against other UEFA clubs, failing to score in 12 (22%) of those games.
- Chelsea have won five of their last eight competitive games without conceding a goal.
- After their 3-0 win over Espérance de Tunis, Chelsea are now fifth in the list of favorites (with odds of 13.00) behind PSG (4.00), Man City (5.00), Bayern (6.00), and Real Madrid (6.50).
- Chelsea have won all three of their previous meetings with Benfica. The Blues defeated Benfica 2-1 in the 2013 Europa League final with goals from Fernando Torres and Branislav Ivanovic.
- Angel Di Maria currently leads the expected goals table with a total of 2.5 xG in three games. All three of his goals have been penalties. His xG without penalties is only 0.17.
Benfica – Chelsea: Odds analysis
The Portuguese are considered underdogs, which at first glance seems anachronistic – after all, Benfica are going into the European clash as proud group winners.
However, our in-house artificial intelligence still considers the bookmakers’ favorite status to be somewhat thin, which is why many Benfica Chelsea AI tips in favor of the Blues offer a lot of value.
The English team’s advancement to the quarterfinals is explicitly recommended as a low-risk bet. The bookmaker Betano is currently offering odds of 1.62 for Chelsea FC to advance, which I also think is well worth a bet!
Our AI also provides specific figures for the expected goals: Benfica 1.47 xG vs. 1.95 xG Chelsea.
Since the data for both teams is stable above “1,” “BTS” is a good bet here, which is also recommended by our model. Given the high probability of this outcome, the odds of 1.75 offered for this bet are also absolutely reasonable.
Meanwhile, there is no clear favorite on the player market, which is why the artificial intelligence only recommends a goal bet on Cole Palmer as another Benfica Chelsea tip upon request.
In my opinion, however, it is telling that Cole does not play a decisive role in the bets on the upcoming top scorer. At odds of 4.00 for at least one goal, however, it is still worth placing a bet on the Chelsea striker.
The best odds for Benfica vs. Chelsea
The odds for the Benfica Chelsea tip clearly reflect the proven international expertise of the English side, who completed their European trophy collection a few weeks ago with their triumph in the Conference League.
So what’s to stop them from reaching for the stars in the Club World Cup? Not much, according to the bookmakers – which is why Chelsea are only offering odds of just under 2.20 for a win.
The generous doubling of the odds for a favorite in a 1X2 bet is, in principle, something that many betting fans will gratefully accept. However, some of the alternative offers are sure to appeal to the general public.
In particular, the 3.5 times the stake for a Portuguese victory is worth considering. And those who can’t make up their minds at all will also be well served with similar odds for a draw!
Benfica vs. Chelsea match analysis:
Benfica faces Chelsea after the Portuguese side surprisingly won Group C, knocking one of the tournament favorites, Bayern Munich, out of the competition.
In the remarkable 1-0 win over Bayern, Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin shone with an outstanding performance, which he will now have to repeat against Chelsea’s dynamic and young strikers.
Under the guidance of experienced coach Bruno Lage, Benfica is expected to field a similar lineup. That is, of course, unless the sweltering 36-degree heat has exhausted his players too much.
With six wins in European competitions this season, Benfica has proven to be a strong opponent, losing only 14 of 53 UEFA games since 2020/21.
Chelsea, which finished second in Group B after a narrow defeat to Flamengo, is naturally eager to advance.
New signing Liam Delap is expected to start after scoring in the 3-0 win over ES Tunis, especially with Nicolas Jackson suspended.
Coach Enzo Maresca is confident in the depth of his squad and is likely to field his strongest team.
Thanks to their aggressive style of play, Chelsea have taken the lead at halftime in all of their Club World Cup matches, in contrast to Benfica’s traditionally slow starts.
Benfica’s victory against a much-changed Bayern side was impressive, but the resulting fatigue could tip the scales in Chelsea’s favor.
Given the close results in previous encounters, this promises to be another hard-fought match.
Benfica Lisbon form check
Benfica turned the Group C table on its head on the final matchday of the group stage when the team prevailed against German champions Bayern Munich, forcing them to their knees with a 1-0 victory.
Admittedly, it was also a heavily changed Bayern side, with Harry Kane, Jamal Musial, Michael Olise, and Joshua Kimmich all rested from the start.
In a game where only the Portuguese had something to prove, they did enough under difficult conditions to secure their first ever victory against FCB.
Overall, however, Benfica did not exactly cover themselves in glory with their performances. In the first half against Auckland, for example, a penalty was needed to avert embarrassment at half-time.
After a delay in the start of the second half, As Águias scored five more goals, but that was to be expected against a semi-professional opponent.
After taking the lead against Bayern Munich in their last game, the Portuguese side allowed the Munich team to dominate possession and control the midfield, shooting only four times on goal in the remaining 80 minutes.
They may have fulfilled their task against a good opponent, but it was by no means an impressive performance ahead of the round of 16 against Chelsea.
Benfica will need to improve both defensively and offensively if they are to score enough goals against a Premier League club that is likely to create a number of chances in the final third.
FC Chelsea form check
Thanks to their second place in the group stage, Chelsea now find themselves unexpectedly on the other side of the tournament tree from Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich and probably Real Madrid.
This has moved the Blues up to fifth place in the betting odds for the upcoming world champions. Betting companies are gradually realizing that Chelsea has a very good chance of advancing to the quarterfinals and then to the semifinals.
We saw a much-changed lineup against Espérance de Tunis. Nevertheless, Chelsea came out on top in the end. Chelsea’s large squad and the ability to rest and rotate players could also give the English side a decisive advantage in the Benfica Chelsea prediction.
After all, the Portuguese club just played against Bayern Munich under conditions that required the game to be interrupted for safety reasons so that the players could rehydrate.
Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, and Moises Caicedo were all rested on matchday 3. So were Marc Cucurella, Levi Colwill, and Reece James. These six players are likely to be among Chelsea’s best eleven when the Premier League resumes in August.
Liam Delap began his career at Chelsea with a goal against the Tunisians. The previous red card for Nicolas Jackson was not only unnecessary, but also opened the door for the former Ipswich and Manchester City striker, who seized his chance with both hands.
My prediction: Chelsea win
