Champions League, Tuesday, 18/02/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
In the first leg, Monaco didn’t show enough, no comparison to their performance in the league phase against Benfica. In the playoff home game, the team from the principality was defeated 0-1, but got off lightly with a fairly long period of time with fewer players, so everything is still open in the Portuguese capital.
I expect a clear improvement in performance in terms of attacking play, but I think that the hosts will again create many high-quality chances.
That’s why I’ve picked out both teams scoring over 2.5 goals at Oddset. The odds are impressive!
The second leg could be interesting. Benfica and Monaco have to make some compromises in their line-ups. Suspensions and injuries are forcing the head coaches to make changes, especially in the center.
I will provide you with more details on the individual absences below. Given this situation and Monaco’s difficult starting position, I definitely expect a turbulent Champions League second leg evening.
The bookmakers’ forecast
Benfica have already won the away game and are traditionally strong at home. So it doesn’t surprise me that the city rival of Sporting is favored to win 1.80. The odds are even quite high.
But I can absolutely understand that, given that Benfica only need a draw to advance. Monaco is given odds of 4.00 by the betting providers, with the draw being in the same range.
AI-Prediction Benfica Lisbon – Monaco: ChatGPT’s picks
As far as the odds are concerned, the AI has similar tastes to mine this time. ChatGPT sees little risk in the classic “Over 2.5 goals”. The single quote has a 1.52 quote, since I don’t expect a defensive battle, I think the selection is great.
The artificial intelligence offers the option of both teams scoring over 3.5 goals at medium risk. Oddset has a odds boost for this bet and has increased the market to 2.70. Ultimately, however, the fourth goal is a bit too hot for me.
From the higher odds region, the AI has grabbed the bet that Monaco will still turn things around and reach the last sixteen. The 5.50 is also very appealing, at least for the use of a free bet.
While Benfica only managed a narrow victory last weekend, Monaco have warmed up. Adi Hütter’s team have something planned for Wednesday.
Analysis: Benfica Lisbon vs. Monaco
7:1 was the score against Nantes on Saturday. An early goal from FC and a red card were followed by a major fightback from the eight-time French champions. An important pointer ahead of the second leg against Benfica.
Monaco had previously lost 4-1 at home to PSG. They have not kept a clean sheet in 13 games. The Benfica goal should therefore be a safe bet anyway, as confirmed by the low odds of 1.12.
Meanwhile, the offense is scoring reliably, at least in France. In the last competitive games, they have only failed to score in the Champions League. Before the 0-1 defeat to Benfica, Monaco lost 0-3 at Inter Milan in the last game of the league phase.
I expect a different performance in the decisive second leg, especially after the gala performance against Nantes. I think the goal of both teams at odds of 1.55 is absolutely top, but the lower-risk option is my tip. But I expect more than a 1-1!
Rating Analysis
While Monaco is fighting with Marseille, Nice, Lille and Lyon in Ligue 1 for the Champions League places behind PSG, Benfica is aiming for the championship title in the domestic league. At the weekend, the gap was reduced to two points.
A whopping 50 goals in 22 games and shared with 18 goals against, the best defense. A value that I do not find so outstanding given the low competition density in the Portuguese league.
In terms of the chances allowed in the Champions League, Benfica was mediocre like Monaco. In addition, the eagles benefited in the first leg from the early red card of the Monegasques, who from then on only wanted to at least hold the 0-1 lead.
I expect Monaco to pose a much greater attacking threat with a full squad. That’s why the 2.55 odds for the visitors to score twice, which will face a very depleted Benfica midfield, appeal to me.
Florentino is suspended and is also injured, like Manu Silva, Fredrik Aursnes and Renato Sanches. In addition, Bruno Lage has to do without veteran Angel Di Maria and Alexander Bah.
The wing is additionally weakened by Bruma’s red card. And at Monaco? With Wilfried Singo and Christian Mawissa, two central defenders are missing.
Denis Zakaria, Moatasem Al-Musrat and Vanderson are also unable to play in defense. Like Mawissa, they have to watch from the sidelines. With so many defenders missing, the only bet I can think of is a goal bet.
Pavlidis scored in both matches against Monaco
And an initial bet becomes even more difficult with improvised line-ups. The “double chance X2” would be most tempting for me at a 1.98, since Benfica doesn’t need a win to advance to the knockout round anyway.
I find the whopping 2.00 odds for a Pavlidis goal more interesting. The Greek has already scored six goals and has a total of eight points in nine matches.
He has scored in four of his last five games and in four of his last Champions League matches. He not only scored the 1-0 against Monaco in the first leg of the playoff, but also scored in the league phase in the 3-2 away win against Monaco.
At Bet365, a whopping new customer bonus is also waiting for you with the code: “VIPANGEBOT”. You should also take a look at the Champions League ticket promotion!
In the Champions League, Benfica and Monaco have already met in 2014/2015 before the two previous matches this season. Back then, we saw a goalless draw in the city state.
Benfica then went on to win 1-0 at home. So after the first four matches, Monaco are still without a win.
A source of encouragement: Benfica have collected nine of their 13 points in the Champions League away from home, with only four points at home.
In their home games, the eagles conceded a whopping eight goals, half of which were scored by Barcelona alone. Only against Atletico (4-0) did they manage a win at home.
My Benfica Lisbon Monaco Betting Tip:
Benfica and Monaco have to rebuild for the Champions League second leg. Monaco are challenged after the 1-0 defeat, but they warmed up properly at the weekend, while Lisbon bagged a narrow victory against Santa Clara.
I expect the visitors to put up a brave fight, but even with a lot of absences in defense, they shouldn’t get away unscathed. A spectacle is inevitable!
My Benfica Lisbon v Monaco prediction: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals!
