Benfica Lisbon – Napoli Tip Champions League, Matchday 6 on Wednesday, 10.12.2025 at 21:00 CET
This is a game in which the best non-tax bookmakers see the hosts ahead – but our data model comes to a different conclusion.
In fact, according to the AI, the optimal ratio between return and potential of a 1X2 bet results when you decide on a Benfica Lisbon Napoli bet on a draw.
Both sides have their problems: The Portuguese have mostly disappointed at home under Mourinho, while the SSC under Antonio Conte does not necessarily give the Champions League the highest priority.
Last but not least, the expected xG value of both teams is so balanced that it could actually be 1:1 in the end.
Do you want to hear some interesting historical facts about this encounter?
Benfica and Napoli have met four times in European competition, with the Italians winning three of those duels (one defeat). This included both games in the group stage of the 2016/17 Champions League.
Napoli’s only away game at Benfica in the Champions League so far took place in December 2016, when the team under Maurizio Sarri won 2-1 in the last group game.
Benfica – Napoli Prediction & Betting
1st goal: At odds of around 1.83, Napoli stands out from the multitude of available betting options as a particularly promising opportunity for a value bet.
The selection Scott McTominay scores, on the other hand, promises values around 3.87, even 8.75 if you choose him as the first scorer of the game. In any case, the Scotsman is an excellent choice for this betting maneuver.
The SSC midfielder shows a lot of drive towards the opponent’s goal and has scored a total of three goals in his last three Champions League games for the club – not bad!
What you need to know about Benfica vs Napoli betting
- Benfica have won only three of their last ten Champions League home games (including qualifying) and lost five. In these games, an average of 3.3 goals were scored.
- Napoli have lost their last four Champions League away games, conceding 15 goals in the process (an average of 3.8 per game). There have never been five consecutive defeats in Europe for Gli Azzurri.
- The odds slightly favor the home team. Our data model predicts a total of 2.40 goals (Benfica 1.29, Napoli 1.02).
- Scott McTominay scored three goals in Napoli’s last three Champions League games after scoring just one goal in his first 24 Champions League games.
Benfica – Napoli: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Rasmus Hojlund scores at odds around 3.20 is the first suggestion to be rated as particularly promising as part of our Benfica Lisbon Napoli AI prediction.
I’m not the Dane’s biggest fan, but recently he’s been scoring regularly again. He scored both goals in the 2-1 win against Juventus at the weekend, and he averages one Serie A goal per 189 minutes of play.
Both goals promise odds of around 1.70 and are relatively promising, as both teams should in all likelihood meet this requirement.
Napoli in particular offer the Portuguese opponents plenty of attacking space, especially since the Azzurri have conceded an average of 1.56 goals in their last nine away games. So it’s a solid proposal from AI.
The best odds for Benfica Lisbon vs. Napoli
Let’s take a look at the Benfica Lisbon Napoli odds – a matchup that the bookmakers classify as tight, tactically demanding and full of uncertainties, without clearly giving either side the label “top favourite”.
A win for Benfica is currently valued at 2.35. The bookmakers believe that the Portuguese can put an exclamation mark, based on home strength, ball possession phases and a team that has been performing stably in Europe for years. The quota expresses respect, but not certainty.
The draw is 3.20 – a value that points to eye level, balance and the possibility of a tactically tough battle of attrition in which nothing is decided for a long time. The markets consider this scenario to be quite realistic, but difficult to calculate.
For an away win of Napoli there is also 3.20. This assessment shows two things: On the one hand, the bookies see Napoli as a dangerous team that can force goals at any time, despite injuries and fluctuations in form.
Benfica vs Napoli Match Analysis:
Benfica are used to dominating the game from the Primeira Liga – a field tilt of 66.19 shows clear territorial dominance.
Against Napoli, however, it should not be so one-sided, because the Italians have enough quality in pressing to step on the feet of the home side early on.
Both teams average 47% possession in the league stage, with Napoli’s score skewed by the game with just 26% against Manchester City after being outnumbered early on.
This indicates a balanced territorial game, with changing phases of pressure and few quiet moments on the ball.
Set pieces could be a decisive factor, as Napoli have already scored four goals from stationary balls in the Champions League. Mourinho will be prepared for this, but neutralizing is easier said than done.
Offensively, you shouldn’t expect any fireworks overall: Benfica has 12.4 shots per game, Napoli 11.6, both below the average of 13.6.
With Mourinho and Conte, two defensively oriented coaches also meet, so a cautious start is likely. Only in the final third could both teams take more risks when the result is open and points are urgently needed.
Benfica Lisbon form check
Benfica only drew at home to Sporting on Friday and are now seven points behind Porto. José Mourinho’s side may be unbeaten in LaLiga but five draws – four of them at the Estadio da Luz – have slowed them down.
In the Champions League, the chances of making the playoffs are slim, our data model predicts 31st place with a maximum of six points. To have a chance, Benfica would have to win two of the next three games against Napoli, Juventus and Real Madrid.
That doesn’t seem realistic at the moment, especially in view of the offensive performance against top teams in Europe.
The statistics back up the problem: Benfica is one of the ten worst teams in the Champions League with 4.4 xG from the game and has scored only two goals from the open game.
Only Ajax, Villarreal and Pafos have fewer goals. The recent series is positive: five games unbeaten, only one defeat in eight games.
Defensively, however, there is still a risk: Four goals conceded in the last three home games show that stability is missing. Benfica look solid, but too tame to force a European comeback – Napoli, Juve and Real will punish any weakness.
Napoli Form Check
Napoli have regained confidence after the World Cup qualifying break and have not lost in five games. Four wins and a draw, including a penalty win in the cup against Cagliari, show the positive trend.
In Serie A, they beat Atalanta, Roma and Juventus, while a 2-0 win over Qarabag revived the Champions League campaign.
According to our data model, Napoli should finish the league phase in 19th place and safely enter the play-offs with around 11.5 points.
The upcoming tasks against Copenhagen and Chelsea seem feasible, an away win in Lisbon could even open a door towards the top 8.
Despite the absences of Lobotka, Anguissa, De Bruyne and Lukaku, Conte has adapted the system. The 3-4-3 with Neres and Lang behind Höjlund looks stable and dangerous at the same time.
Nine goals in the last five games underline the offensive upswing, after only ten goals were scored in nine games. Defensively, the European weakness remains an issue, as Napoli lost the last four CL away games and conceded 15 goals in the process.
Five defeats in a row would be historic – discipline and balance will decide the way forward away from home.
