Benfica – Real Madrid Tip Champions League, Playoffs, first leg on Tuesday, 17/02/2026 at 21:00 CET
For my Benfica Real Madrid tip for the Champions League play-off first leg, I’m taking a close look at this explosive duel. The two teams faced each other just a few weeks ago, so it’s going to be a hot dance.
I commit myself and believe that the home side will cause a sensation here again. My main tip is therefore “Benfica over 1.5 goals”. At Oddset you get odds of about 2.50 for this. This is a bet that I would like to recommend to you.
Why do I think that? Benfica statistically completely outplayed Real in the sensational 4-2 win just three weeks ago and created an incredible eight big chances. That clearly shows me that the Spanish defence can be cracked.
We all remember the dramatic last group game. Lisbon defeated the Whites 4-2, with goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scoring the decisive goal with a header in stoppage time to ensure the Portuguese progress.
Due to this defeat on the last matchday, Real Madrid slipped to ninth place in the table. This means that, just like in the 2024/25 season, they will have to take the detour via the playoffs to advance to the round of 16.
Despite the recent bankruptcy in Lisbon, the bookmakers still see the “Blancos” as favourites. However, the current Benfica Real Madrid betting odds give the team of ex-Real coach José Mourinho a chance of victory of around 25%.
Benfica – Real Madrid Prediction & Betting
Apart from my main tip, I see other exciting opportunities for your Benfica Real Madrid bets. A bet on a home win for Benfica could prove to be a real insider tip. The odds at German bookmakers for this are temptingly high.
Considering how strong Mourinho’s team was in the last duel, the odds of 4.00 at Bet365 for a Benfica win are definitely worth considering. Real have recently weakened in cup games and lost three of the last four.
Another tip I have on my list is “Kylian Mbappe scores”. The Frenchman is an absolute goal machine in the Champions League. With 11 goals, he leads the scorer list and also scored twice in the last game in Lisbon.
What you need to know about Benfica vs. Real Madrid betting
- Benfica’s path to the playoffs was rocky: With only three wins and five defeats, they have qualified more badly than right.
- Real Madrid allowed eight big chances and an xGA value of 3.01 in the last duel despite 67% possession – a clear defensive problem.
- The Asian Handicap Line for over-goals is 3.0. After the 4-2 spectacle three weeks ago, this is an interesting option for you.
- Kylian Mbappe is the man of the hour in the Champions League: He leads in goals (11), shots (40) and xG value (7.84).
Benfica – Real Madrid: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model takes a very close look in the course of the Champions League playoffs. Which team will live up to its role as favourites? Who stumbles? So it won’t work without Benfica Real Madrid AI prediction.
As the first tip alternative, the digital brain brings the bet “Over 2.5 goals” into play. The odds of around 1.60 are rather generous, considering that a total of six goals were scored in the last duel at the end of January.
The bet “draw at half-time” at odds around 2.35 is also interesting. Since Benfica can be trusted to stand up to Real in front of their home crowd, the bet is worth considering even without a freebet.
As a safety-first approach, the AI also recommends the classic “Both teams score”. The arguments for this: The odds make it over the 1.50 mark and in each of the previous four duels, the bet would have gone through.
The best odds for Benfica vs. Real Madrid
I took a look at what our AI tool says about this firecracker. The computer-aided analysis sees Real Madrid ahead with a 53.7% probability of winning, while Benfica only has 25.2%. A draw is 21.1%.
It gets interesting with the goals: The analysis program expects a total of 3.21 goals. Real Madrid is rated with 1.93 predicted goals, ahead of Benfica with 1.28. That supports my bet on at least two goals for the Portuguese.
The odds of the bookmakers reflect this assessment. A win rate for Real implies a probability of victory of about 54%. The bookies and our tool here are pretty much in agreement about the Spaniards’ role as favorites.
The market for the Asian Handicap is -0.5 at Real Madrid. This simply means that the Whites must win the game for the bet to be successful. Any other outcome, i.e. a Benfica win or a draw, would cause the bet to fail.
The Asian Handicap Line for over-goals is set at 3.0. The last duel was a real firework display with six goals, because both teams had to throw everything forward in the end. It remains to be seen whether it will be so goal-rich again, but the trend is there.
In the goalscoring market, Kylian Mbappe is the overwhelming favourite, which is no surprise given his outstanding form and statistics in the Champions League. The Benfica Real Madrid odds for one of his goals are therefore correspondingly low.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Match Analysis:
For Real Madrid, only the title counts in the Champions League, which is no wonder with 15 successes in Europe’s most important club competition. So the pressure on the “madridistas” is enormous, especially after the recent defeat against Benfica.
The Portuguese were on the verge of elimination in the last group game. But then goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin came along and headed his team into luck in injury time. This time it will be decided over 180 minutes, which promises a more tactical game.
Real Madrid have one of the most fearsome attacking lines in Europe with Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior. Their speed and technical brilliance are a constant threat. Benfica must not give them too much space under any circumstances.
That’s why I expect Jose Mourinho to take a slightly more defensive approach than last time, when his team had 22 shots on goal. He will try to keep the game close in the early stages and then set targeted pinpricks.
Nevertheless, there is so much offensive quality in both teams that the game can explode at any time. Benfica in particular will have to play in front of their home crowd in the first leg in order to travel to the Santiago Bernabéu in a good starting position.
Although Real were clearly inferior in the last duel, they are still considered favourites. Their immense experience in knockout matches speaks in their favour, but the incredible atmosphere at the Estádio da Luz could give Benfica the edge.
Benfica form check
The last duel at the end of January was a real spectacle with six goals. Only three weeks later, there is now a new edition. At that time, both teams had to risk everything to achieve their goals – the top 24 and the top 8 respectively.
So we shouldn’t necessarily expect such an open game again. Nevertheless, coach Jose Mourinho may come to the conclusion that the best defence is to attack the shaky Real defence again, which supports our Benfica Real Madrid prediction.
Benfica impressively proved in the last game that they can crack Real’s defence. With eight big chances created and an xG value of 3.01, the 4-2 victory was more than deserved. Such a performance gives courage for the upcoming duel.
The late winner by goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin secured the Portuguese in 24th place and thus the ticket to the knockout phase. It was a dramatic end to an otherwise rather mixed European season for the traditional club.
Despite the success, the campaign in the Champions League has been rather disappointing so far. With only three wins from eight games and five defeats, Benfica was also lucky to be there at all. No other team with so many defeats has progressed.
However, Benfica celebrated two of these three victories at home in Lisbon. This should give the team the necessary self-confidence to survive in the play-off first leg in front of their own fans against the Spanish record champions and achieve a good result.
Real Madrid form check
There are some personnel concerns for Real coach Alvaro Arbeloa. Rodrygo was suspended for two games after a red card for insulting the referee. Raúl Asencio is also suspended for the first leg after his yellow card.
In addition, superstar Kylian Mbappe could be out. The Frenchman recently missed training sessions due to knee problems, his use is questionable. That would be a bitter blow, because he is by far the best scorer in the Champions League with 11 goals.
Mbappe’s possible absence weighs heavily. He scored both goals for Real in the last meeting and is the player with the most shots and the highest xG value in the entire competition. Replacing him is practically impossible.
Arbeloa must have had sleepless nights after the last meeting. The way Benfica dismantled their defence and allowed eight big chances is absolutely unacceptable for a team like Real Madrid.
The game at that time had a special character, as both teams had to win, but it definitely exposed weaknesses. Arbeloa now has to decide whether to let his team act offensively or more defensively than usual.
The Spaniards will probably have the majority of possession (67% at the time), as they did three weeks ago. But what matters is what happens in the two penalty areas, and Benfica have been clearly ahead of the game recently.
