Benfica Lisbon – Real Madrid Tip Champions League, Matchday 8 on Wednesday, 28/01/2026 at 21:00 CET
Jose Mourinho will see “his” Whites again on Wednesday, but this time as coach of the opposing team. Meanwhile, I’m convinced of what the new coach of the Madrid team has come up with.
His baptism of fire was not a success, but since then Arbeloa has achieved one strong result after another with the Whites – by the way, my Benfica Lisbon Real Madrid tip for the last Champions League matchday is also based on this upward trend.
If the Spaniards are in normal form, then the Real Madrid odds of 1.72 I’m aiming for are already attractive enough to make me an old or new bookmaker on my way. Especially since Benfica is not a superior team.
The qualification of the Portuguese is only possible in theory, and with only six goals scored in the competition, you don’t have to be surprised about 29th place in Lisbon.
Both clubs have already played numerous games on the international stage, but a meeting between Benfica and Real Madrid has so far remained the exception.
Despite a total of 792 European Cup and Champions League games – 508 for Real Madrid and 284 for Benfica – the teams have only faced each other three times in these competitions.
The last duel dates back to the quarter-finals of the 1964/65 season and is therefore a good 60 years in the past …
Benfica Lisbon – Real Madrid Prediction & Betting
If the Madrilenians play as they did recently against Monaco and Villarreal, then they should also be able to pick up the three important points for a direct entry into the round of 16 on Wednesday.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spaniards let it rip early on. Real/Real at odds around 2.57 and 1st half: Real over 1.5 goals at 3.75 I have my eye on for a reason.
Because the Whites have always scored 2+ goals on the last three Champions League matchdays before the change of sides – and precisely because Arbeloa has now been able to successfully transfer his philosophy to the team, I expect this trend to continue on Wednesday!
What you need to know about Benfica vs Real Madrid betting
- After five defeats from seven games, Benfica is threatened with an early exit from the Champions League if they fail to win
- Real Madrid return to the site of the 2014 Champions League triumph with a three-win streak in their luggage
- The Portuguese have a weak goal ratio of only 0.86 goals per game and have always remained without a goal as clear outsiders
- Kylian Mbappé is the life insurance of the Madrid team and has scored 58 percent of his team’s 19 goals so far this season
Benfica Lisbon – Real Madrid: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Benfica Lisbon Real Madrid AI prediction also knows the name of arguably the best striker in France in a good 20 years.
Based on the calculations of our prediction model, it should pay off this Wednesday to transfer the betting offer Goal: Kylian Mbappe to your own betting ticket.
The odds of 1.50 are recommended even without Betano Boost. Because the high-speed player seems to love the change of coach – five goals in the last three competitive games!
The second AI suggestion could be left as it is for the time being. But with the bet Under 3.5 goals at odds around 1.65, you would lose a lot of value.
While it’s true that Benfica games have produced the lowest number of goals this season, averaging 1.91 goals, very little should come from the Portuguese.
The best odds for Benfica Lisbon vs. Real Madrid
The bookmakers have been taking a close look at Benfica’s Real Madrid clash – especially as it pits two teams that were once formed under Jose Mourinho.
A home win for Benfica is 4.20. The markets reward the home strength of the Portuguese, but only expect points against the Madrilenians if they put in an above-average performance. A success would be a surprise, but not impossible.
The draw is 4.40. The bookmakers envisage a game in which both teams could act cautiously to avoid mistakes – tension and tactics are in the foreground.
A three-pointer by Real is finally 1.68. The markets are based on the individual class, experience and international clout of the Spaniards. Success is seen as likely, but by no means as a foregone conclusion.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Match Analysis:
In my opinion, the pressure alone that the Whites are building up will ensure that they take control early on.
Especially since the first victories under new coach Alvaro Arbeloa have also brought back the necessary self-confidence to appear aggressive and determined.
Real Madrid will try to control the game immediately, take advantage of phases of possession and put Benfica’s defence in trouble with quick combinations.
Benfica, meanwhile, is not experiencing a particularly successful phase and will have a hard time getting a grip on a player like Mbappe.
In addition, Jose Mourinho has never shown a lucky hand against Real so far – his personal coaching record shows one draw and four defeats, without ever having won against the Madrilenians.
Benfica Lisbon form check
Benfica started the league phase with four defeats in a row, three of them under Jose Mourinho, and were under pressure early on after these setbacks.
But the two subsequent victories catapulted the “Eagles” back into the race for the play-off places.
However, the 2-0 defeat to Juventus on matchday seven has choked them – now they desperately need a win and at the same time have to hope that other results fit in order to reach the knockout phase.
After all, the success at the weekend in the league with a 4-0 win against Estrela has boosted the team’s self-confidence, and the home advantage also seems like a small advantage: Benfica have lost only one of their last seven home games (4 wins, 2 draws).
Incidentally, the offense seems stable, but the defense is susceptible to quick counterattacks, so the team has to throw everything into the balance to win the home game.
Real Madrid form check
Real Madrid have already secured play-off qualification, but a win here – or a draw with other results – would catapult the Whites directly into the round of 16.
After a bumpy start to the season, things are now running smoothly under interim coach Alvaro Arbeloa: Three wins in a row, including the 2-0 win at Villarreal on Saturday, have brightened the mood at the Bernabéu again.
Real are now just one point behind leaders Barcelona in La Liga, but their away form is still a bit of a problem.
In the last four UCL away games, wins and defeats alternated, which shows that the team is not yet completely stable when it enters foreign territory.
Despite the lack of personnel in defence, including Eder Militao and Antonio Rüdiger, Los Blancos exude experience and confidence – Real Madrid can still draw on the full, especially in close games. I therefore remain optimistic about Wednesday!
