Liga Portugal 33rd matchday, Saturday, 10.05.2025 at 19:00
It’s more than just a game. More than just a derby. More than a match between two teams who are level on points. It’s the evening that an entire city is looking forward to – and which may be decisive in the championship!
My Benfica Sporting Lisbon betting tip couldn’t be more exciting this Saturday, because nobody can afford to make the first mistake here.
My tendency is clear: I don’t think the visitors will lose. In my analysis, I reveal why this is the case and which bets are also suitable for this thriller.
The explosive Lisbon derby on the penultimate matchday? When the matchday planners came up with this scenario, they naturally hoped that not everything would be decided between the two top teams at this point.
However, not even the most daring fans of suspense would have thought that Benfica and Sporting would be level on points. The duo dominate the Primeira Liga. Important to know: In the event of a points tie, the direct comparison counts first, followed by the goal difference.
Sporting won the duel 1-0 in the first half of the season, and ahead of the current derby, the goal difference is three goals better. Accordingly, I will start my analysis with the current leaders.
Sporting have only lost twice this season, and away from home (14 wins, four draws and one draw) there is really hardly anything to complain about. 47 goals and 13 goals conceded, incredibly strong figures.
The last three away games have been won without reply. Four times, which should be manageable, less than two goals were scored away from home. Star striker Viktor Gyökeres scored a whopping 21 goals away from home.
Accordingly, I have two betting options for you here. For a Gyökeres goal on Saturday, we are offered odds of 2.15 at Betano. At the same time, it’s not wrong to bet on “Over 1.5 goals Sporting”.
Now the value even climbs up to 2.40. Of course, in such an explosive derby, it is also worth taking a look at the history – Benfica and Sporting have been dueling for decades.
This year’s Allianz Cup final did not go to Sporting, with the score tied after 90 minutes. As a result, the Whites have only lost two of their last eleven games against Benfica.
2:2, 1:2, 2:2, 2:1, 3:1, 3:4 – the recent derbies played at the Estadio da Luz have been tough. Nevertheless, it is clear that the current visitors are not doing badly.
Accordingly, I’m a little surprised that the role of favorite is relatively clear. If you take a look at the ApplePay bookmakers, you’ll see an average of 3.40 to 2.10 from the visitors’ point of view.
Benfica Lisbon therefore have a slight advantage – but why is that? Is it because they have won twelve of their last 13 games and have only scored fewer than three goals three times?
Interesting fact: the team has taken a lead into the break 21 times this season. Does it therefore make sense to bet 1 after the first 45 minutes, which has odds of 2.70 at Betano?
After all, I have seen Sporting trailing at the break five times. With Vangelis Pavlidis, Benfica definitely have a striker who can absolutely keep up with Viktor Gyökeres.
He has netted eight times in the last six matches alone, a goal bet would bring you odds of 2.30. Benfica have only failed to win two home games in the league and are 51:11 – outstanding figures.
However, they have conceded two goals in two of their last three home games, with Arouca and Farensa two teams who are not in contention with Sporting achieving this feat.
Benfica or Sporting, who is heading for the Portuguese championship? The two teams with the same number of points are virtually identical in terms of quality and goal difference. It is therefore difficult to pick a favorite here.
I see the visitors slightly ahead, as they have only lost twice this season. What’s more, I can see from the history how rarely Sporting lose this derby.
Of course, Benfica are also playing a brilliant round, especially in recent weeks. As two of the past three home games have been relatively close, I have finally decided to put the following tip into the race:
Sporting score at Benfica!
