ATP Masters Shanghai, 2nd round, Monday, 07.10.2024, 12:30 pm
I will now turn to a duel that has already taken place this year and that was quite close. In my Berrettini Rune tip, I will now tell you why I am placing a service bet and betting on at least one tiebreak.
Is it still a cracker when one of two protagonists is ranked 44th in the world? I’ll put it this way: if he answers to the name Matteo Berrettini, it probably is!
The Italian has lost a lot of places after many injuries and a corona infection, but is gradually working his way back up. He is having a tough time of it, and he is not yet back among the world’s elite.
After the US Open, where he lost in the second round to Taylor Fritz, he took part in the Japan Open, but had to withdraw from his match against Arthur Fils when the score was 6-7, 0-0.
In Shanghai, he has already played his first round, against Christopher O’Connell. The result was absolutely typical for Berrettini: 7-6, 7-6 – it couldn’t have been closer!
The Italian, who stands at almost two meters tall, has always been known for his powerful serve. But he will be aware that he has not won two matches in a row since the end of July.
Back then, the matches were played on clay (and actually, the green turf is his strongest surface), and lo and behold: Berrettini won the tournament! Now, two and a half months later, the competition is much tougher.
The 28-year-old is now back in Shanghai for the first time since 2019, when he lost to Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals. The round of the best four would probably be a bit presumptuous this year.
For the second time, he will face Holger Rune in 2024; in Cincinnati, he lost 6-2, 1-6, 4-6. The head-to-head is now 1-2, with only two matches having a regular winner.
Interestingly, both times Berrettini and Rune met in Indian Wells, in round 2. And this time? The match is actually taking place in exactly this round!
Berrettini is actually favored, albeit only by a very narrow margin. The odds at our bookmakers average 1.75 to 2.00, so anything can happen in this encounter.
Holger Rune, seeded at number twelve in Shanghai, will not enter the tournament until Monday. How is his form? In Japan, he reached the semi-finals, but was knocked out here by Arthur Fils with 6-7, 6-7.
A result that should suit Berrettini perfectly! The opponents the Dane was able to beat were not among the world’s elite.
At the US Open, it was already clear how Rune is feeling: he was knocked out by Brandon Nakashima in the first round with a score of 2-6, 1-6, 4-6, which explains why he is competing as an underdog on Monday.
Ultimately, the 21-year-old is considered more of a wild card this year than ever before. On good days, he beats the world’s best; on bad days, he embarrasses himself against underdogs, and not just once.
In Japan, he not only suffered very, very narrow defeats against Arthur Fils, but also two victories that were only decided after a third set. Close results? Berrettini’s favorite!
My Berrettini Rune Tip
For Matteo Berrettini, the Shanghai Masters is generally a good place to be, and he is returning here after a five-year break. His first victory could not have been closer, and the tiebreaks were typical of him.
Holger Rune, on the other hand, is anything but in top form. He alternates between strong and very weak results, he is anything but consistent. That’s why I decided to place the following bet:
We’ll see at least one tiebreak!
